Nesrie
6356
Oregon had a Republican Senator for years, and I helped vote him out. One of the biggest mistakes Democrats made and continue to make is feeling too comfortable about their support. It’s one of the most unforgivable offenses when you hear some campaigner is going around saying their support doesn’t matter because this group will just vote for whomever. It’s like they learned nothing when they say that.
You earn votes. You fight for the votes that are not being given their fair shake no matters whose side they’re on, and you don’t take anything for granted.
Yeah - the outcome was preordained, but I don’t think even the most pessimistic of us saw the defense arguments going where they went.
Nesrie
6358
Why should this surprise anyone, that the man who said he could murder someone in the street and still get votes, still keep his power, still walk free is using a a defense that says he can do anything while he fills the government courts with yes men?
This changes nothing.
I think it’s the difference between knowing something bad in theory and then actually seeing it come to pass in reality.
I’ve been saying since before he was nominated that Trump was a fascist, for years before that that the Republicans don’t care about the constitution or our political norms but rather they care only for retaining power, and I’ve been saying since the election that we are in danger of sliding into authoritarianism.
After three years of watching them chip away at norms and undermine the institutions that are supposed to check this sort of authoritarian behavior, here is the moment of crisis. Here is the moment when they stop pretending and simply state outright, “The party has the authority to do whatever it pleases, laws be damned. We are the arbiters of what is in the country’s best interests.
This is, officially now, the end of the American experiment as envisioned by our founding fathers. Maybe not permanently. Maybe the Democrats manage to win this fall in spite of Republicans best efforts to rig the game. Maybe we pretend to return to the norms, all the while pretending that the Republicans willingness to do anything to undermine anDemocratic President is just business as usual. Or maybe not. There is nothing to check them at this point. They have proven they can do whatever the fuck they want with impunity. Will they be shy at exercising that new power?
JoshL
6360
Yeah, one of the things (one of the many things) that makes me crazy is after eight years of Republicans screaming “Obama uses executive orders! He’s a tyrant!”, we get this.
And, should a miracle occur and a Democrat win the presidential election, we’ll go right back to the Republicans screaming the same things about how the president is acting like a despot, and refuse to let him (or her) appoint Supreme Court justices.
GOP counsel just now, verbatim:
“I don’t think anyone really believes that the Trump administration hasn’t fully cooperated with investigations.”
Ummm… what?
Gaslighting is a hell of a drug
Nothing they say has any basis in reality. It is a flaw of our media that it seems incapable of recognizing this. When they use patriotic rhetoric to undermine the legitimacy of a Democratic President the words are meaningless, only their desire to undermine is real. When they say the President is acting in good faith, their words are meaningless, only their desire to allow his abuse of power is real.
They can say up is up and down is down today and it means nothing because tomorrow they can just as easily say up is down and down is up. They can claim to love freedom but that doesn’t mean they live freedom. They can claim to love Christianity but that doesn’t mean their actions are in accordance with Christian morality or even that they care about Christianity at all. They might say they are troubled by something or that they are taking something seriously but those words don’t actually mean anything.
The only thing that means anything is what they do. We should stop searching for meaning or intent in their words. The are only noises meant to confuse.
Yep, the right answer is “because nothing matters (to them)”.
Speaking of this shitty Republican Senate, what are the chances it’ll swing Dem for at least a couple of years come next January?
My general understanding is that the map is a bit more favorable this time than it was in '18, but it will be a near run thing.
Gardner (CO), Collins (ME), McSally (AZ) and Tillis (NC) are vulnerable. If Kobach wins the R nomination in KS, there’s another possible seat (all of these except Gardner will be close though.) GA has two open seats, but I don’t think GA goes purple yet. Doug Jones (AL) will almost certainly lose. The next wild card is how the top of the ticket performs and if they any coat tails.
Thrag
6368
That last question has to be one of the most ridiculous so far. Basically asking the defense to speculate as to the minds of the house managers.
I think it would take a solid win in the Presidential election to get a Democratic Senate. It’s possible that Kobach is unpopular enough to flip a KS seat despite the state voting for Trump, but McSally and Tillis are only likely to lose if both NC and AZ are at least very close, and Gardner and Collins would almost certainly win if their states are close.
I’m sure there are coalitions where you could have NC and AZ go to Trump by only a percent or two, have the Dem win CO and ME by a broader margin, but have Trump still win the Rust belt somehow. I doubt any real candidates will turn out a coalition like that, though, and you really have to flip at least 4 seats and the White House because Doug Jones has a very uphill battle. If you win AZ, NC, CO, and ME, you are likely also winning PA and WI and getting at least Trump’s 306 EVs. The depressing thing is how hard it is to end up with even an Obama 2012 sized win, unless you somehow get FL back.
So in my fantasy land where people actually are sick of Trump and turn out to vote him out, you could end up with 51 Democratic Senators, too (+CO, ME, AZ, NC, and 1 of the GA seats; -AL). Especially if they can field a real opponent for Kelly Loeffler’s seat.
Gardner is toast, he’s trailing by 14 points. Agree with the rest, going to need a good night for Dems. While I don’t think it will take a miracle to win, I cannot express how much I dread Nov. 4th
Was there a recent poll? I’m a bit hesitant to rely on polls at this stage, but especially ones from Aug
CO is solidly blue now, but saw that the other week on Reddit but did not save the link. Might have spaced the date though. His approval numbers are low fwiw.
Sure, I was just talking about a situation where Trump comes close in CO. If he doesn’t come close, then Gardner loses. I’m not sure what happens if it is close, though. Probably Trump wins plenty of other states and there’s no hope of winning the Senate in that scenario.
Didn’t Iowa just flip 2 of it’s 3 US House ® seats to blue in 2018? Doesn’t that make Joni vulnerable too?
