1740

Yes, I think Barr is currently wondering if he should cut Trump off before his personal exposure is any deeper. I wouldn’t be surprised if that is what he was discussing with Murdoch People who said “Barr is an institutionalist” were wrong insofar as they thought that he would protect the institutions of government and the rule of law, but I think he still is an institutionalist when it comes to the Republican party. If sticking with Trump is going to put him in line for prison and tear up what remains of the party, Barr will bail on Trump.

1741

I think Barr is already 100% all-in on Trump and is going to go down with the ship.

1742

Yup. We saw it before with the Mueller investigation. The longer they can drag this out and sow confusion by using the media, the better for them.

1743

I mean, to put it bluntly: the Democrats think they have Trump beaten right now. They feel really good about their chances of at least flipping Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania…if not also Arizona and Iowa and North Carolina and Georgia.

What’s scary to Democrats are variables that can come into play. Impeachment is one such variable. They’d like to get this particular variable – whether it’s a positive or negative – outta the way fairly early in 2020 if they can.

1744

Because the media are fucking trash bothsiderism addicted morons.

1745

Yes, I do think the main difference is that there is clear and incontrovertible evidence that Trump is involved in the fuckery.

But the actual crime? It’s basically the same, a bunch of guys trying to skirt the letter of campaign finance law and stumbling over it in their eagerness; followed by those same guys using their power and position to obstruct any investigation into it.

And the defense will be the same. The thing being sought isn’t a thing of value as envisioned by the law. The President has unlimited power to do X and Y, so it can’t be a crime when the President does X or Y. The investigation itself is a partisan witch hunt intended to undo an election. Also, too, fuck you on your demands for witnesses and documents.

1746

And yet, even beyond polling on the strict impeachment question, when pollsters drill down to ask whether it’s appropriate or proper for the President to do what Trump clearly did, the polling is above 60% pretty consistently on sentiment at that being a no-no.

1747

I was reading it the other way, but I freely admit I could be wrong. The house has the votes to send the impeachment to the senate whenever they want at this point, though obviously taking care to build a stronger case is a smart move. But if they want it fast, they can have it fast. I guess we will see how it plays out.

1748

I think delay would work if it weren’t for the continual revelations of wrongdoing. It seems like every rock Dems turn over these days has something terrible under it, so they should keep turning over rocks.

Not to mention, they need to walk down this contempt path, which will probably take a while. The Supreme Court is going to have to weigh in and there’s no way that happens this year.

1749

Congress doesn’t have to decide every single impeachment and contempt issue at once though. I think Congress can decide to expedite the core Ukraine corruption/abuse of power charges and issue Articles of Impeachment on those while continuing to investigate/litigate numerous other crimes and abuses including contempt/obstruction. I also think that’s what Congress should do.

Abusing the office of President to attempt to influence an election that is happening now and in the future is a current and ongoing crisis and needs to be dealt with now. That doesn’t mean Congress has to drop all other investigations; they can prioritize.

1750

Yes, that strikes me as a smart play.

1751
1752

I think they have to thread a needle between a bunch of different considerations:

  1. If they move immediately they make it easier for GOP senators to claim it is pure partisanship without the seriousness of a real investigation to back it up
  2. If they move too quickly they also don’t give public opinion time to shift enough to where cracks appear in the GOP - this is important because even one GOP vote to impeach and to convict would be better than none, it is important because you want to maximize the public disapproval at the time each swing Senator is forced to vote, and it is important to protect your own swing votes
  3. If they take their time to fully investigate, they risk getting bogged down in the weeds of Guillani’s dirty laundry and allowing Trump to shift blame off himself
  4. Trump is having a hard time controlling himself and getting a strategy straight; as soon as the major revelations are done, though, the story drops off the front pages and Trump can settle on whichever lines have worked the best.
  5. Once there is a clear favorite to win the nomination, Trump can frame impeachment as being about Congress trying to elect Warren or Biden or whoever, and can hammer on that specific person to sew doubt. If they move before the opponent is set, those arguments are harder to make (have to attack more people) and still not as effective (voters aren’t sure what the choice is, so if 20% respond to the attacks, the ones who are convinced to hate Biden might be different from the ones convinced to hate Warren, which means they can all still see a better choice available).

So, they really have to be responsive to the public mood to maximize the value of impeachment. If they think there’s zero chance opinion will turn far enough for a conviction, they need to act quickly enough to head off the backlash / muddying. If they think removal is on the table, they need to give the rebel GOP Senators time to get there. In both cases, they need to act before the nomination is sewn up (which could happen fast if things go poorly for Biden in early states and Bernie endorses Liz).

1753

one could only hope things work as intended.

1754

Have we seen anything in the last two years that indicates that will ever happen? The Trump Crime Cartel can’t seem to stop themselves from doing crime, even when on camera.

1755

Burying the lede, it’s a Jonathon Coulton song! And here’s a direct link:

1756
1757

They won’t stop doing crimes and there is probably plenty of additional evidence of past crimes hanging around to uncover, but different crimes don’t make them any more guilty of the one we already know should be grounds for removal, and pulling on every thread gives them a chance to find one that is either over-blown on initial reports, actively invented by some dumbass, or tied to some shady Democratic funding source. Finding that one could be enough for them to distract and discredit the mountain of real evidence, and as we saw with Kavanaugh all it takes is one solid grain of truth and a burst of white guy indignation to give cover to the frightened toadies.

1758

I’ve seen some reportage that talked about investigation and Giuliani, but this is the first time that the term “subject of the investigation” is being used alongside criminal investigation with Rudy’s name in there.

Trump is going to toss him under that bus so quickly…

1759

That’s already started with Trump saying “I don’t know them… ask Rudy.”
(paraphrased cause I can’t be arsed to find the exact quote)