What I like about your analogy is how you probably meant it as a criticism, but it isn’t. Mubaraks are only one piece of the puzzle, and indeed his failure to get out of the way when it was clear his nation was ready for a democratic/republican future actually would earn him a great deal of scorn from a modern day Machiavellian.
I don’t think that GRRM is really celebrating Machiavellian nature as much as you make out. For one I think it is clear, mostly, that the ends do not justify the means. It’s not like anyone knows that a once in millennia type threat looms over the realm so it’s unfair to judge actions with respect to that.
For another thing, the Machiavellian nature you are alluding to (ends justify the means", synonym for sinister manipulation) is the modern term made popular originally as a nationalistic slur in English politics and later by popularized versions of the psychology concept. Neither encompasses the complex nature of Machiavelli’s epistemology and historical vision. That’s why I specifically referenced its original meaning. It’s not about celebrating one way or another, any more than Machiavelli was “celebrating” people doing nasty things when he simply acknowledged and provided case studies that not all nasty things were created equal in terms of how well they serve the interests of those who would rule. As with Machiavelli, we have the benefit of some degree of omniscience over our subjects, so it’s directly relevant to criticize actions on the basis of large external threats that are known and warned about but ignored in favor of localized squabbling (as with the French in Machiavelli’s day and the Winter itself not to mention the many warnings they laugh at from the wall).
One of Machiavelli’s favorite examples was Duke Valentino, as he calls him, and this is while recognizing that for all of his successes a few key strategic errors ultimately cost him his shot at dominance and forced him into exile. This idea of a great man bearing little resemblance to a good one on a personal level is not, in Machiavelli’s rendition, an endorsement of cruelty and evil. In fact, his goal (hyper-summarized) was to provide an evidence-based analysis of political decisionmaking in order to provide the least evil prince-ship possible as a route to republicanism. That’s why it’s a shame that only pithy quotes taken out of context from the Prince are the popular version of his legacy, when it’s really a minor work in comparison to his Essays on Livy and the Roman Republic.
Furthermore, while the Lannisters are good schemers it shouldn’t be understated how lucky they are. Unplanned events (Renly’s death, Edmure’s defense, Robb’s screwing around, Balon Greyjoy’s death, etc) consistently conspire to aid the Lannisters. If a Stark does something stupid they’ll likely die soon but key Lannisters are far more likely to lose a body part and somehow carry through. To credit Tywin/Tyrion’s Machiavellian prowess with the Lannister’s success gives them far too much credit. Renly was well on his way to winning before he basically got Deus Ex’ed out of the story.
Yeah, that’s why fully one half of the Machiavellian recipe for successful leadership in history is Fortuna, which is part luck and part the ability to capitalize on luck. When I said Tywin Lannister embodies it, I don’t just mean the bitter old man on his way to death in a privy, I mean the sum total of how he is characterized in the book including his ascendance during the Targaryen times and his survival and triumph at minimal cost in the coup. As with Valentino, he fails in the end and it’s quite clear that his legacy is in great peril (amusingly, there’s also a huge impending role for poor judgment with regard to ecclesiastical influence and power thanks to Cersei’s bumbling).
The Starks get plenty of random acts of fate thrown in their laps (stumbling across Tyrion, Renly’s offer of aid prior to Ned’s capture, getting ahold of an invaluable piece of information in Joffrey’s birthright, convincing the late lord Frey to ally on the basis of the thinnest of levers, etc). But they don’t capitalize on them, are more concerned with some ever-shifting target of personal honor than the utility of an action, and so on. That contrast is not some accidental vendetta of Martin’s against the Northerners, IMO.
Indeed. Although I’m curious to see how that sorts out in the end in terms of who actually planned what.