I agree that Stannis is a goner. I have always thought it would be Jon himself who will kill Stannis, demonstrating to Melisandre, once-and-for-all that her reading of the signs was mistaken. I was expecting Jon to do that in ADwD, actually. The story didn’t go where I hoped it would! There’s still time though, as Robb’s Will naming Jon a Stark and his heir, should it come to Stannis’ attention, combined with any rulership Jon seems to be exerting over the Wildlings as their King will put Stannis and Jon on a collision course.
Without the Will, the same thing can happen if Jon effectively becomes King of the Wildlings. So in the TV series, they decided to omit Robb’s Will and Testament. The net effect is no different.
If there is a Baratheon on the throne at the end of it all as Daenerys is dead and Jon doesn’t want the throne, it will be Edric Storm – perhaps as the husband of Sansa or even of Margaery. In the TV series, I suppose that would be Gendry instead. Either way, not Stannis.
I have always thought that Tyrion would end up on the throne as the Hand of the Queen or King, whosoever that may be. Tyrion has the greatest skill to be Hand, but not the stature to be the sovereign. Tyrion is destined to rule, but not to reign.
And yes, I suppose that GRRM might surprise us and have Tyrion marry Shireen to seal the peace. Kinda creepy though. :) Tyrion as King, with Davos as his Hand would be the closest to a “happy ending” as GRRM could summon the fortitude to write.
I’m not sure Ned kept the secret so tight out of fear or out of promising Lyanna he’d raise and protect the baby. But, he definitely had to know that once Robert learned he was harboring Rhaegar’s child, a Targaryen, Robert would’ve gone ballistic and scoured the North until the baby was dead. So he let his own wife believe the rumors that he’d cheated rather than risk Jon’s parentage leaking out. Like Robb with Jeyne, he placed honoring his promise over his own personal honor.
Ned used Catelyn’s resentment of Jon as Jon’s cover. If Catelyn had known the truth and not hated the boy and allowed herself to love him (as Ned thought she would), that fact alone would have indicated to the world at large that Jon might not be Ned’s bastard. Once that speculation is started, it rapidly moves to the truth. Even so, Ned never actually lied directly to Catelyn about it, and Catelyn tells us that the only time she ever asked Ned directly about it, he forbade her to ever speak of it again and told her Jon was “his blood”. That much was true, as Jon is, in fact, “Ned’s blood” as Ned’s nephew from Lyanna. Still, there is no denying that Ned allowed Cat to believe the lie that he had told Robert about Jon.
It’s not so much he places a promise over his personal honour – as I think those are the one and the same for Ned – rather, that Ned will only sacrifice his personal honour to save the life of an immediate family member. That’s his breaking point.
GRRM confirms this to us when he shows us what it takes to get Ned Stark to lie and suffer dishonour. The second and final time he does it is when he acknowledges Joffrey as Robert’s’ rightful heir and cops to conspiring to overthrow Joffrey on the steps of the great Sept of Baelor. At the time he gave this great lie in public, he did it not to save his own life and go to the Wall but because Varys had promised that Sansa’s head would be brought to Ned on a plate if he did not do so. Once again, his breaking point is reached.
