6041

Going only from the tv show, no book knowledge required, the characters all know that Tywin is THE Lannister. His reputation is well established even before the events of the first episode. So all the other families would know the loss of Tywin is a huge, possibly fatal blow to the Lannister dynasty. This would be different if he had left someone of substance(ie male) like a healthy Jaime as successor. He didn’t.

Next, we know the north is loyal to the Stark family. We’ve heard it said on the most recent episode in fact. So the north is going to send back their last Stark princess to Cersei for execution? I’d be surprised if Cersei herself expected that. Going after Tyrion is one thing, he’s a Lannister so no one cares to start with, but yanking a Stark out of the north is entirely different.

Roose himself pointed out to his son that no Lannister army, even the ones led by Tywin or the Mountain, ever went that far north. Also, Roose knows the Lannisters, led by Tywin, almost lost the capital and throne to Stannis AND almost lost the war to Robb Stark. They weren’t invincible then, without Tywin their situation is so much worse.

6042

Well, I’ll see how it plays out. I just don’t see how this marriage benefits the Boltons. It tips the Lannisters to the fact that they’re betraying them, it won’t make the northern lords or people like them, it puts them in bed with Littlefinger - who they don’t trust anyway, and it potentially puts a viper in their midst looking for revenge. Where’s the upside for the Boltons?

6043

As another uninformed TV-only guy, I thought the old woman saying “the North remembers” was supposed to indicate that Sansa does bring a lot of support from everyone in the North. It’s all kind of vague in my head, but that gave me the impression that Sansa could turn begrudging compliance from the other subjects of whoever exactly the Boltons are supposed to be ruling into more willing support.

And it makes sense to me that Littlefinger is informed enough to not be scared at all of the Lannisters at this point. When you said earlier the Lannisters would move heaven and earth to get Sansa back, I thought “Sure, Cersei would try to, but who’s doing the lifting?”

But maybe you’ve got a point that the general populace, and probably the Boltons, still have more fear and respect for the Lannisters than we do as viewers, so I don’t know.

Not really arguing, just chiming in with another perspective from a non-book-reader.

If I hadn’t read any of this conversation, I wouldn’t have questioned Littlefinger’s intentions at all, I would’ve just assumed if they don’t make sense, it’s because he’s playing an even longer con and the show just doesn’t want me to know what it is yet. That’s the kind of thing I’d expect from the show, for better or worse, never being able to judge the importance or wisdom of anything in particular because it’s all so tangled and drawn out.

6044

I guess I’d buy that thinking if we hadn’t just seen another example of how Ramsay Bolton is a complete psychopath and how untrusting Roose is. If I were Roose, I’d be more concerned that Sansa could rally people to her faster than I could turn it to my advantage.

6045

Also, don’t forget that Uncle Kevan Lannister, who’s really the main male Lannister apart from Jaimie, who doesn’t count, is in command of the main Lannister forces, and has taken them back to Casterley Rock, and we’ve seen that he doesn’t seem inclined to play Cersei’s games (cf. Tywin’s wake and the small council scene where Cersei first appears sitting in for the King).

His function is to defend the realm and Tommen, and in that context I doubt he’s going to care much about risking Lannister forces on one of Cersei’s bitchy whims, and as a commander he’ll be happy enough to have Bolton and whoever Bolton can muster in the North to at least delay Stannis in his passage South, and if that means Bolton installing a Stark at Winterfell, so be it. IIRC Casterley Rock is S/WW of the Neck, the bit inbetween the North and the rest of Westeros, so it makes sense for Kevan to be there, as Stannis is the main military threat to Tommen, and if Stannis isn’t stopped by Bolton, Kevan can intercept him at the Neck (and presumably the Tyrells are ready to defend KL itself, seeing the Queen is now a Tyrell).

Cersei is a powerful player but she’s not invincible, and she’s actually in a pretty bad position at the moment. I think we saw some genuine fear of, and belly-offering to Maergery, in that meeting with her and the handmaidens, at least initially - it was only when Maergery stupidly indulged herself and pressed her luck teasing Cersei about her Dowagerdom that she turned back and the lion was roused again (and more latterly, she now seems to have some nefarious plans for an alliance with the High Sparrow and the Faith up her sleeve).

6046

I’m not sure Margery taunting Cersei was as much a function of hubris as it was a calculated effort to either facilitate her leaving KL for Casterly Rock or to provoke her into making a mistake. Remember, Margery is slick as fuck. She’s shown time and time again that she can manipulate people in ways that Cersei can’t. Hell, the only person Cersei ever had that kind of influence over was Jaimie, and all that ever led to was fuckup after fuckup.

As far as Roose Bolton and the Sansa marriage thing goes, it makes plenty of sense from his end. All anyone knew of Sansa post Nedsecution up until she fled Joffrey’s wedding was that she was:

1). Perpetually traumatized
2). Woefully unseasoned in politics
3). Above all else: homesick.

Roose is nobody’s fool, but what reason would he have to believe this shellshocked girl would pose him a serious threat? Sure, she got the rap for poisoning Joffrey, but no one besides Cersei ever believed she seriously was anything other than a scapegoat, especially not the smarter players in the game. She lived in KL under the tyranny of the monster who killed her father, beat and humiliated her repeatedly, and cast her off to be married to the Lannister’s black sheep, all in relative silence. Roose probably sees someone who, in addition to providing him with the most solidifying hold over his new kingdom, has the added bonus of being able to take a punch. So he didn’t see the screener for Sansa’s dark turn at the Erie, not being privy to dramatic irony is the whole reason it works.

6047

As I recall, Littlefinger came to an agreement with all the Lords of the Vale, that each of them would get some time with Lord Robyn, to woo and raise him, in turn. In exchange, Littlefinger remains the Lord of the Vale for a year - a year that he uses to, one by one, appease, seduce, bribe or in some other way, achieve mastery over each Vale Lord.

So, yes, he does rule the Vale, right now, and can promise Vale support to Bolton.

6048

Why would Roose Bolton arrange a marriage to Sansa? Easy - it’s his best move to secure the North and it carries very little risk from his perspective. Most importantly, Sansa’s value to the Boltons decreases measurably once she has provided a male heir - preferably, two. After that, she can find her way south to face the King’s Justice, if needs be. But that is by no means certain…

Cersei: Raven says: Deliver Sansa Stark immediately, Warden of the North.
Roose: Raven says: As your Grace Commands. However, the snows have started and it is quite impossible to convey her to you until they end.

later
Cersei: Where’s Roose Bolton and the traitorous bitch!
Qyburn: In Winterfell, Your Grace.
Cersei: We will march an army up there and take her!
Qyburn: North, to Moat Caitlin? No army has ever invaded the North from the South while Moat Caitlin is held. And the Boltons do hold it. Moreover, Your Grace, the Starks happen to be right: Winter IS Coming. It’s coming now, in fact. The Citadel reports the snows have started north of the Neck and are falling now in the Riverlands already. We can’t march North to lay siege to Winterfell during Winter. Not until Spring. May the Seven send that the Winter lasts only a few years. Though a long summer does point to a long winter. A very long winter, perhaps…
Cersei: Damn that Roose Bolton! I’ll flay him alive. When the snows melt, I’ll kill him!
Qyburn: No doubt your Grace. Of course, by the time the Winter ends, Sansa may well have given birth to as many Stark-Boltons as Roose Bolton is likely to need. You may find he’ll just put her on a ship at Whiteharbour and send her to King’s Landing trussed up like a Goose when the winter storms abate and the ships return to the Narrow Sea. Wars are expensive and Roose Bolton will have no further need of her after the Winter, Your Grace. And Roose Bolton does count his coppers meanly.
Cersei: glares. We’ll see.
Qyburn: One thing is for certain Your Grace. Now that winter has arrived, Sansa Bolton is not going anywhere.

meanwhile
Ramsay: Father, the Maester says a Raven came last night.
Roose: One did. From King’s Landing. The Queen Regent wants your bride’s head on a spike.
Ramsay: She’s mine now Father.
Roose: She is, for now. And after the Winter, once she’s whelped a brood of Stark-Boltons by the end of that, we’ll see. If King’s Landing still wants Sansa, we may have to let them have her.
Ramsay: Father, that would go against our traditions. What would our people think of that?
Roose: Quite poorly, I’m sure. We’ll have to arrange for the Lannisters to kidnap her at sword point so we can blame them for it. If it comes to it, that is. But after this winter, once thing is for certain: Cersei will no longer be Regent.
Ramsay: Are you sure …
Roose: Oh yes, quite sure. Our Good King Tommen will be many years older by then, and come what may, he will be much too old for a Regent. There will be a new Hand along with this new King. And the Queen will not want the Queen Mother in King’s Landing, you can be sure of that, too. The bankers tell me the Lannisters are short of gold and this winter, food will be more important than gold – and the Tyrells have all the food. And soon enough, all the gold too by winter’s end. I’m told Queen Margaery is a good friend of your lady wife and does not believe her guilty of poisoning Joffrey. Lord Baelish tells me Margaery blames the Imp, but not Sansa. We may find that come spring, Sansa’s head is no longer required. And if she is still required for the headsman in King’s Landing, well, being a widower will provide you with new opportunities here in the North. We’ll have Sansa’s children by then and that is what our people require most. Now run along and see that you put a new Bolton son in her belly this evening.
Ramsay: smiles

6049

Yeah that is pretty much my take.

Tywin dead means the Lannisters are not the force to be reckoned with they once were. Kevan, the head of the family now, told Cersei to fuck off and went back to the rock. Jaime is reduced, and as a kings guard cant hold political power anyway and still has the kingslayer mantle that people hold against him. Joff is dead and would have been a shit king anyway. Tomen will be easily manipulated by Margery, as we saw in ep 3. Myrcella is a hostage in Dorne. Oh an Tyrion who was never popular is out of the picture on the mainland as well (I think Mormont is taking him to Dany not Cersei). Baelish sees all of this and has cut ties with them.

Cersei is trying to hold onto power but book readers know she will soon overplay her hand.

Boltons are in theory in command of the North but actually surrounded by enemies and no one is going to help them. So a marriage to the Starks make sense. Except Sansa is not who they think she is (meek, a pawn, a name, etc.) and rather than unite the North under the Boltons, she will incite the North against them and certainly Ramsay’s days are numbered at this point.

6050

No, he doesn’t rule, the lords of the vale will not call banners upon his command. He’s been grudgingly allowed to remain as a temporary tenant only because he’s a master-class politico and maneuvered his pieces before the tense meeting; otherwise he would’ve been ousted from the Eyrie. Huge difference between that and actually ruling.

He needs that year to solidify his position in the Vale. Running off with a handful of guards and throwing himself into the arms of the Boltons is not something Littlefinger would’ve done. It’s just a ham-handed way for the producers to merge multiple storylines.

6051

I would disagree. If Stannis defeats Roose Bolton, Stannis will have Sansa as a chip to offer a Southern Lord to marry in turn for his support. And so Littlefinger gets Sansa and the North should he want it, after Stannis has bled the Boltons dry and Littlefinger becomes the hero, a liberator rescuing the North. And if not, then Sansa is safe in the North over winter while Cersei wrecks the kingdom and Tommen will need a new Hand. Sooner or later Cersei or Tommen will send for Littlefinger and ask him to become Hand. And then the Kingdom will be his the easy way.

And after Sansa marries, there is no need for Littlefinger to refrain from banging her. Which is what he wants. Either way, he’ll get that option.

6052

But why wouldn’t Roose Bolton execute Baelish on the spot in Moat Calin? He’s going to marry Ramsay to Sansa which destroys what little support he could have expected from what remains of the Lannister power. So, allowing Baelish to live doesn’t really salve those wounds. Who would really be that pissed if Baelish dies? Maaybe Cersei, but marrying Sansa to Ramsey is going to piss her off already.

Baelish has nothing left to offer. I don’t think he can claim he runs things in the Vale. He doesn’t control Robyn Arryn and he turned him over to Lord Royce. I mean, if Baelish were to ride back to the Vale why would Royce let him in past the Bloody Gate? So that he can resume his “regency” and give the Vale lords a bunch of orders?

I understand what Baelish might hope to gain by dealing with Bolton, but it leaves him without any other cards to play in his hand. But I think Bolton has a strong case to be made for permanently ridding himself of Baelish. Marriage generally means creating an alliance between two Houses, in this case Stark and Bolton, why is Littlefinger needed for that? If I’m Bolton at the very least I’m holding him captive. I’m not going to allow Littlefinger to run around the countryside and create more schemes some of which inevitably aren’t going to be good for Bolton.

Last thing about Roose Bolton - I think there would be at least a moment’s consideration given to making Sansa quietly disappear before the whole of the North knows she is alive and well. Particularly when you know your son is a psychopathic sadist of the first water that enjoys torturing women. If Sansa Stark has to die it’s much better for Bolton if she dies in an anonymous grave than surrounded by thousands of Stark loyalistsat Ramsay’s hands in Winterfell. Not saying that is a honorable thing of course, but for a cold calculating sob like Bolton he has to be a little concerned about Ramsay’s ability to restrain himself past the honeymoon. If Sansa Stark were at the Red Wedding - Roose Bolton would have killed her, the fewer Starks around the easier it will be to hold Winterfell.

6053

And you would be wrong. Leaving a tenuous seat of safety to put your person and your ‘bargaining chip’ entirely in the hands of a geographically remote ‘ally’ who has demonstrated a lack of honorable behavior, who hails from a family that actively likes to torture people, while arranging your chip that you demonstrably care about to be given into the hands of a monster who makes the twisted family from which he hails looks like a pack of nursery school children, is loading all six bullets into the pistol before playing with the Russians. Littlefinger has to assume that Roose will act in good faith; there is no backup plan, no means of escaping the North himself or with Sansa in tow. Everything hinges upon Roose not taking Sansa from him by force and simply discarding him. There is no downside for Roose if he chooses to do so. Littlefinger has no army, has no means of retaliation, has no allies who will bother avenging him. And Roose will go after nobility, throw them away rather than even asking for a ransom from their families, so an upjumped commoner like Littlefinger ain’t shit to a Bolton. The show stupidly has Littlefinger abandoning his tenuous power base, obtained by murdering his wife under suspicious circumstances, and walking along with the prize he worked to spirit away from King’s Landing, into a lion’s den operated by sadistic, dishonorable fucks. It makes_no_god_damn_sense.

How anyone can think Sansa is ‘safe’ in the hands of the Boltons is a mystery to me. And Littlefinger can’t bang away with impunity if her husband decides to subsequently run him through with a sword (and we know he’s not a fighter, and whatever forces his purse could marshall for him are 100s of miles away).

6054

Make no mistake, I am not fully understanding Littlefingers play here with Sansa and the Boltons… I just don’t think Cersei is in a position where anyone needs to worry too much about her is all. There were a lot of men lost in a lot battles and wars, with Dorne as an threat and who knows who else, I just can’t see the Lannisters moving an army north even if the north had something they really wanted.

6055

Because if Stannis wins, Sansa is a bargaining chip and LF is the Southern Lord with the most to offer. And if Stannis loses, as soon as Sansa is pregnant, SHE has no further need of Ramsay. Because LF knows something about Sansa that Ramsay doesn’t: Sansa will poison Ramsay - because she’s that kind of girl. And then LF will have the most to offer Sansa, if it comes to it.

I really don’t know how you get to the point where Cersei blames LF for Sansa being in the North. She think he’s in the Vale. He’s not getting blamed by Cersei for Sansa being north of the neck in Winterfell. By the time any of that comes out, it’s after the Winter – and Cersei isn’t the Queen Regent after this winter, no matter what.

6056

And … we’re off! Game of Thrones Fever is now upon us!!!

Loving these posts guys, keep em coming :)

6057

While I can agree that this was a fairly hamhanded way to shorten the story and get Dark Sansa working her ways in Winterfell (Which will lead to some ‘F___ YEAH!’ TV moments (or maybe some ‘f___ noooooo!!!’ moments)) - upon reflection, the simplest analogy to me is this.

Littlefinger is playing the cards he has been dealt. He certainly makes mistakes, but he puts his cards in play.

Rather than hoard them and hope for the best - he uses them when the situation is right.

You can see this with Robyn - with Lysa’s death, he had one card - as Lord Protector of the Arryn heir - he could have holed up in the Eyrie and defied the lords of the Vale, while working his wiles on Robyn. Instead, he plays that one card - cutting a deal with each Lord to hold that Ace.

The same with Sansa - she has absolutely the most power in Winterfell producing a Stark/_____ heir - providing legitimacy to the Warden of the North - Littlefinger plays that card, as well - securing an alliance with the poison pill that is Sansa Stark - all while convincing her that he remains her protector.

6058

Also - Steel Wind, love your hypthetical dialogue. Couldn’t agree more.

6059

Bolton didn’t kill Littlefinger for the same reason many people, such as Cersei, haven’t killed him, he’s useful. He’s wired in to everyone and every thing. Bolton, being a northerner, has no knowledge of the goings on down south. This is why he specifically mentioned that Cersei has powerful allies, he’s acknowledging he has no clue how many allies she has or how powerful they may be. He’s essentially telling Littlefinger “I think the Lannisters are dead in the water, but I don’t know who Tywin allied himself with before he died, convince me they are toast”. Roose knows Littlefinger will have the scoop, and intel is valuable. One day, when the Boltons have consolidated their grip on Winterfell and have their heir, they will go on a flaying rampage and dispose of whoever they please, but why now when the game is still on?

6060

Sorry, but none of this makes sense. By the time Stannis wins Sansa would most likely be damaged, soiled goods if the show allows the characters to be true to form as demonstrated already by the series itself–if not dead, half-dead, mad, or any combo of those. And Sansa didn’t poison anyone, she had no idea the strangler was in that hairnet. Littlefinger orchestrated that along with Olenna. She’s not that kind of girl, yet. Maybe the show’s version of LF views handing her over to the Boltons and their loving ministrations will finally act as the final push to convert her from being a sweet girl who dreamed of knights and ladies and all things chivalric to a cold, calculating schemer.

I really don’t know how you get to the point where Cersei blames LF for Sansa being in the North. She think he’s in the Vale. He’s not getting blamed by Cersei for Sansa being north of the neck in Winterfell. By the time any of that comes out, it’s after the Winter – and Cersei isn’t the Queen Regent after this winter, no matter what.

Where did I mention Cersei in my post? I didn’t factor her in in any way, shape, or form.