Gamecube going bye-bye?

"It is clear that Sega’s strength was having their own console. "

Wasn’t Sega losing tons of money on the Dreamcast? I thought they had to give up the hardware business because it was bleeding the company dry. Last report I heard, they are now profitable.

Wasn’t Sega losing tons of money on the Dreamcast? I thought they had to give up the hardware business because it was bleeding the company dry. Last report I heard, they are now profitable.

No, they are not profitable. They are still not meeting their expectations and money is not flowing like wine. There have been numerous stories in the last couple weeks about the failure of NFL2K3 to make even the slightest dent in the Madden franchise and it’s all a big part of their failure so far to turn things around properly. They had to give up hardware because they would have been dead, yes, but it has yet to mean too much to their bottom line. I’m guessing that sweetheart deals with Microsoft for exclusive content are about all that kept them alive after the DC died. Otherwise all these Sega games wouldn’t be on Xbox. Sales clearly indicate that the system choice was not a wise one.

I shouldn’t do this…but Jeep…you might consider that the only guy in this thread that isn’t basing all of his suppositions and opinions on a rumor is me. I posted the exact evidence that Nintendo is not quitting the console business and yet everyone persists. If you read MacDougall’s speech, which was given in a place where companies rarely “lie” about what it is they intend to do due to the importance of the meeting to investors, he emphatically says that Nintendo is not leaving the hardware business and that the next system is on the drawing board. Combined with a raft of Nintendo properties confirmed for release in 2003 including Zelda, Wario World, 1080, F-Zero, Star Fox, Mario Kart, Mario Tennis and many more, there is simply no evidence of them abandoning Gamecube or quitting hardware sales of their system.

I went back and read my posts. They’re all full of facts and easy to read with the exception of the one directed specifically at Jason. What more can I do? I still have Becker hounding me across every console thread that appears on this board and now you’ve thrown in your 2 cents of hate as well. Put yourself in my shoes. I post facts backed up with links to them and yet people don’t listen. It’s frustrating as hell.

–Dave

According to this, they are making a profit –
Video Game Maker Sega Cuts Profit Forecast for Year by 72%

Tokyo – Japanese game developer Sega has reduced its projected fiscal
year profits by 72 percent, from an estimated $148.4 million to an
estimated $41.2 million – blaming poor sales of game titles including its
“NFL 2K3.” For the company’s fiscal year, which ends in March, it had
projected sales of 20 million games; Sega now expects to sell 12.6 million
software units.


– but it does sound like Sega’s management is dissapointed with their game sales.

Do you have more industry contacts than Vederman? Did you personally interview the president of Nintendo? Your basing all of your facts on the reporting of others, which as we’ve seen, is suspect.

Look, it’s your attitude that puts everyone off, which is always, “I’m the only person that’s right, you’re all wrong.” You’re arrogant and rude, often in response to rude comments, but you immediately get defensive when anyone offers even the barest hint of something that counters something you say.

I post facts backed up with links to them and yet people don’t listen. It’s frustrating as hell.

Then quit posting.

Then quit posting.

Fine. Done. Enjoy the one-sided conversations that will result.

–Dave

I’m gonna have to back Vederman up on this. Even if a company is on the verge of complete and utter disaster, if the management is even remotely competent, they will do their best to assure everyone that everything is peachy.

I have first hand experience with this, actually; I once went on a sales junket with a telecomm company in PA. They looked perfectly healthy, had lots of employees, generally smart and competent people. No indication whatsoever that anything was wrong. Next month I called to follow up with out sales lead-- and they were out of business.

In this case, what may be the deathblow for the GC is the way it hasn’t been doing very well in Japan. I know, Xbox does abysmally there, but Japan is Nintendo’s home country; Xbox does well here in the US. It might be considered a Virtual Boy-type embarassment to the Japanese corporate image.

If you read MacDougall’s speech, which was given in a place where companies rarely “lie” about what it is they intend to do due to the importance of the meeting to investors, he emphatically says that Nintendo is not leaving the hardware business and that the next system is on the drawing board

Dave, companies lie ALL THE TIME. It’s a part of doing business. Welcome to reality.

Example. When you’re in a job interview, and you get asked “What do you consider to be your greatest weakness”, do you answer honestly? Only if you’re a moron.

Nintendo is the Scrooge McDuck of console makers. They somehow make money on anything. If they made a black & white console with a 2-bit CPU and dumped the entire production line in a landfill they’d probably still make a profit. I bet the GC is profitable, and I’m sure Nintendo isn’t going anywhere with its “big” console system at least for the next two years.[/quote]

I think that’s true. I read somewhere where the Cube is considerably cheaper than the Xbox to produce. Budget CPU that runs cool, no hard drive, less memory, smaller case, etc. The analyst was guessing at the time that each Xbox cost $50-$100 more to make than its selling price, while the Cube was close to even.

Maybe that’s changed as more units get made, I dunno.

It’s been said that the N64 was profitable for Nintendo, despite the fact that it wasn’t a market leader.

In a way, it’s kind of immaterial. There are a lot more games available for the Xbox and Cube in their first year than the “also-ran” consoles of yore, it seems to me. If they survive another year or so, the purchasers will probably be pretty happy.

N64 was a huge failure in Japan as well, as it was in Europe. It was practically a North American-only console.

“One year later… c’mon Jason, just admit it. You don’t like me and you don’t like what I post here. It’ll make it easier on everyone.”

YAWN Ohh please get over the feeling sorry for yourself crap you post. Heaven forbid someone questions what you say…

You’re right, it was a big mistake.

Corporate statements are press releases and should be taken with a grain of salt. ONLY when giving information to shareholders and testifying in court are corporations required to tell the truth, and even then they lie every chance they get. YOUR “evidence” holds no more water than anyone else’s “rumors.”

If you’d pick up on the possibility that a lot of these threads are for the purpose of speculation you’d have a much easier time. Making a weighty argument is good, it’s an important pursuit which I hope has as much intrinsic value for you as it does for me. I mean, I get so much out of sitting around trying to figure shit out that when I have it down…I don’t even really need other people to validate it. If they do, well that’s just fucking frosting, isn’t it?

OTOH, trying to demonstrate how complete and thorough your philosophy on the subject is and blathering on about “why aren’t other people just submitting to my omniscience?” serves no purpose. They’re slapping you back into reality, but it’s just not taking, so you end up going around in these idiotic circles again and again…to the point where someone might think you were trolling, except you seem to sincerely need other people to believe you, trust you, tell you you’re right all the time. Guess what: that’s what your kids are for, if you need someone to manipulate, go back to selectively shielding them from reality.

I went back and read my posts. They’re all full of facts and easy to read…

Since you didn’t pick up on the whole mortar/pestle thing in the last post, let me put it to you this way: do you ever wonder if your process for determining facts is a little TOO quick and easy? It’s great that you can sometimes see flaws in other people’s reasoning, but are you absolutely 100% certain at all times that there isn’t any in your own? I’m sort of being indirect right here because, you know, I wouldn’t want to come out and tell you an actual fact so you can feel all persecuted…

…with the exception of the one directed specifically at Jason. What more can I do? I still have Becker hounding me across every console thread that appears on this board and now you’ve thrown in your 2 cents of hate as well. Put yourself in my shoes. I post facts backed up with links to them and yet people don’t listen. It’s frustrating as hell.

You’re such a victim, I don’t know how you bear it. Woe be to those who have to walk in Dave Long’s shoes, to be Spat upon by His Detractors, to be Insulted by Them, and to find that None other than He has ever known the True Suffering that comes of knowing the Truth, of sharing that Truth, and of being Ignored for his trouble. Oh the Suffering and Pain of Job…er, Cassandra…er, Dave Long.

I mean, it’s not like anyone’s ever written about it. Over and over again.

Also: it’s not like figuring out the truth is a hard thing, or that people have spent thousands of years writing about how hard it is to figure out, or many thousands more years just plain trying to figure it out.

So, uh, just between one 200 IQ motherfucker and another: how do you make it look so easy, Dave?

/jeep/

This Christmas will likely decide the fate of the major consoles. The PS2 is fine and dandy, and is leading the console war by a wide margin (check EGMs sales lists for confirmation…or any other console mag). Both XBox and GC are far behind on those terms. The XBox games that do sell well are Madden and Halo, one not an exclusive and the other the oldest game on the system (though both are great games!). The exclusive XBox games have been largely underwhelming. The GC OTOH has some great games that can’t be found on other systems, such as Mario, Eternal Darkness, and now Metroid Prime (try the demo!). Once Zelda comes out, the GC should start seeing some great Chrismtas sales. I am not sure what XBox games might sell well this Christmas…I can’t think of any right now. My guess (just a guess, of course!) is that the GC will pull ahead over the Christmas sales period because of these big name titles.

However, if they do not, for whatever reason (poor economy?), then I think we might see a huge loss of support for the GC as a system. The GBA will continue to thrive…Nintendo’s handhelds make them buckets of money. But, yeah, I think there is a serious concern that Xbox and/or GC might go down after the holidays, though it will take some time. However, both companies have the resources to ride out any sales trends, if they want to. MS says that they are committed to the XBox, but my bet is that they back out first. As people have noted above, you can’t always trust what companies say. But I tend to think Nintendo will stick it out and has no real reason to lie about such things…yet.

“Yes, nintendo annouced that they are planning on ending the GC in 2004. Just about the time everyone else will be ending their systems too. The leaps of logic some people make”

But why are they announcing that now, without saying what they are replacing it with? I’ve heard similar statements from Microsoft and Sony, but only for the purpose of stating the anticipated release dates of XBox 2 and PS3.

Yes, but Microsoft seems to have commitments to XBox other than as a console platform; they have a larger strategy of home appliances in addition to PCs and the Xbox is supposed to be part of that. I’d expect them to be extremely stubborn about cancelling Xbox (and future revisions) for that angle alone.

I hate to shore up Dave Long here, who’s always had a blind eye for Nintendo, but the N64 wasn’t a flop in Japan - sure, it didn’t even come close to the Playstation, but it sustained several million-selling titles over there, which made Nintendo some serious bucks. Currently, the Gamecube SHOULD eventually outsell it, although the software tie ratio is a lot lower.

Personally, I’d love to see Nintendo up and disappear just to shut up the nostalgia-addled console fanboys, but I don’t think they’re going anywhere.

N64 was a huge failure in Japan as well, as it was in Europe. It was practically a North American-only console.

Really? I didn’t know that. Anyway, the GameCube isn’t doing that great in the US this time. Most of the figures/reports I see indicate it’s being outsold by Xbox, by a significant margin… remember that NPD game sales Excel spreadsheet I linked to in a previous thread?

Not a big deal to me, but the all pointy headed analysts seem to think that there’s only room for two consoles on the market.

what reports say that the Gamecube is significantly behind?

10.18.2002 10:20:11 AM
Strategy Analytics Research Report Predicts 84% Increase in Console Sales for 2002

By Joseph Moran
Research and consulting firm Strategy Analytics has released its latest forecast regarding game console sales and the respective shares of Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony.

According to the report, global shipments of game consoles will reach 41.9 million units this year, up 84% from the 2001 level. According to the report, the Sony PlayStation 2 will account for 63% of these sales, Nintendo’s GameCube for 21%, and Microsoft’s Xbox 16%.

Factoring in cumulative shipment figures to predict that by the end of the year, the Playstation 2 will hold a 72% market share (50 million units). Nintendo’s GameCube is expected to be a distant second with 16% (10.8 million), and Microsoft’s Xbox will bring up the rear at 12% (8.2 million).

The report speculates that GameCube sales this holiday season may ultimately determine whether or not Nintendo remains in the business of selling consoles.

Even though Xbox (which launched around the same time as the GameCube) is still trailing in the sales figures, Microsoft has repeatedly pledged to commit whatever resources are necessary to keep the platform viable.

“This is a race for second place. The question now is whether the market can sustain three players in the longer term,” said David Mercer, Vice President, Broadband Practice at Strategy Analytics.

That was prior to the killer $199 Xbox bundle (10.15.02), and Live!, and the release of all the big name titles for Xmas season. As I said, I’ve seen a number of informal reports that indicate a large uptick in Xbox sales very recently due to those factors. For comparison: it’s generally accepted that the release of Mario and Starfox a month ago had no real impact on GC sales.

I’m fairly confident predicting that Xbox is going to be the winner come January, but I’m perfectly willing to wait until then and see how it all plays out.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s still a battle for distant 2nd place. However, there are some signs that Joe Six-Pack may be realizing that PS2 is kind of a clunker, technology wise-- Xbox’s relatively “high end” features like HDTV support, the hard drive, CD soundtrack ripping, Live! ethernet, and Dolby Digital 5.1 output takes a while to trickle down to the average consumer’s level of understanding.

I’ve used this example before, but the Voodoo cards were huge with enthusiasts WAY before the general gaming public understood what it could do for them. And similarly, the Voodoo name carried a lot of popular weight long after most enthusiasts had already given up on the entire Voodoo brand as a lost cause (and switched to GeForce cards). Another example: I saw the same thing happen with Palm Pilots. There’s a significant lag between consumer popularity and critical acclaim by early adopters… however, these types of users eventually influence enough people, and then the network effects set in.

That was prior to the killer $199 Xbox bundle (10.15.02), and Live!, and the release of all the big name titles for Xmas season.

Good point, thanks.

For comparison: it’s generally accepted that the release of Mario and Starfox a month ago had no real impact on GC sales.

That’s got to be really disappointing for Nintendo. Prerelease, Mario was pitched as the game that would make or break the cube.

I’m fairly confident predicting that Xbox is going to be the winner come January, but I’m perfectly willing to wait until then and see how it all plays out.

I still tend to think the Mario/Metroid combo will push Nintendo ahead of XBox this XMas. Zelda will be a big boost when it is released in February. But, as you say, who really knows? Dreamcast had great software and still got crushed by the PS2 before the PS2 was even released.

I’ll just state up front that I have no facts to back me up on this one, so it’s more of a question. Anyway, I’ve heard a number of times, including a few from EB and Gamestop employees, that the Christmas season is huge for Nintendo, more than it is for other companies. Perhaps there are a lot of people waiting to buy Mario and Starfox as Christmas presents. Anyone know of a study comparing the percentage of business that these companies do during the last two months of the year? I’m sure Sony still outsells Nintendo by quite a bit, but maybe Nintendo gets a bigger boost out of it.

Either way, I’m taking off Wednesday to play Metroid Prime, woo hoo!