Hamas concoures the Gaza strip

You can find it anywhere, but this is some entertaining news web site
So Hamas is taking over Gaza. Now we just have to see if they can do the same in the west bank.
Kasam missles on Kefar saba, Raanana, Netanya etc’ = Nasty times ahead for all :(

Yeah, kind of grateful that I’m gone in a few weeks. Qassams have range from Gaza to where I live right now.

Aaron (or anyone in the know), from an Isreali perspective, is there a “good” outcome for Fatah vs Hamas?

Let’s see today’s round-up.

  • Palestinian civil war sees Hamas tightening grip on power.
  • Shiite holy site bombed.
  • Sunni mosques getting attacked.
  • Lebanese anti-Syria MP assassinated.
  • Fighting continuing at Nahr al-Bared.

Can I get more Paris Hilton news please? kthxbye.

Also grats to Shimon Peres. It’s ironic the only popular elections he wins are when he runs alone :P .

Although we also had upper parliament elections in Egypt yesterday that are promoting our image as a laughing stock.

It’s the way you walk.

Not in Israel, but Fatah is the moderate wing of Palestinian politics. Hamas rejects Israel’s right to exist and refuses to negotiate, Fatah doesn’t and is willing to negotiate.

Wild oversimplification and I’m sure Hamas defenders will show up and insist that they’re just misunderstood pacifists (note: they’re not). And the domestic Palestinian equation doesn’t even involve Israel at all, there it’s more corrupt Fatah office holders vs religious Hamas partisans with clean hands.

Best option: They kill eachother off to the extent that it creates a power vacuum that ends up being filled by someone more sane. Nigh impossible.

Second-best option: Fatah and Hamas keep killing eachother while not allowing a power vacuum to form. This way, all their efforts are focused inwards, in killing eachother. Quite possible.

Third option: Fatah defeats Hamas. Fatah is significantly less insane than Hamas is, and significantly less violent. Now, Hamas is good for Israel in that it gives us a blatant enemy to unite against and fight, and they’re unable to even pretend to compromise, so there’ll be no worries about giving away things we can’t afford to. At the same time, it is impossible to have a long-term stable situation with Hamas in the picture.

Fourth option: Hamas defeats Fatah. This would suck, and make me even more grateful that I’ll be leaving soon. You guys probably don’t understand how devastated the North is from relatively puny Qassams being fired into lightly-populated regions; the area accessible from the Gaza Strip is significantly more populated and significantly larger than that in range of the Lebanese border. If the numbers I’ve seen are correct, it would be possible to hit Tel Aviv. Sadly, this is the most likely situation from what I can see.

Fifth option: Deus Ex Machina. And if He, assuming his existence, hasn’t shown his hand outright as yet, I don’t think He will do so in the near future.

Everything I’ve seen points to the situation racing swiftly to a de-facto partition; Fatah-run West Bank (or rather the fragments of the West Bank not Israeli-occupied) vs Hamas-run Gaza. Is that not the case?

Spot on, and not that much of an oversimplification.

There is also the religious side; Fatah if I remember right has a very significant Christian backing, while Hamas very much does not.

The whole situation is extremely complex and convoluted but, in the end, boils down to very simple things when you look at it from the point of view of one side’s expectations and interests (what will they do that will have an effect on me directly; how can I influence that).

I’ve seen evidence pointing to that, but I’ve also seen a good bit of evidence that neither side is willing to accept that, and that such a situation will be grounds for a continuation for their war.

Bear in mind, though, that I do not keep 100% in touch with the news; it’s actually very difficult not to, but I make a conscious effort because I don’t want to be fully informed, and because I’m leaving soon and need to focus on getting ready.

Sounds like all things considered that’s the best option. Things have been crazy there for a while now.

I talked to a woman here who is hellbent to emigrate TO Israel, precisely because people are leaving. She’s a Zealot in the classic sense and thinks that the Jews need to come home and start stacking rifles. This is not the sort of thing that the world should be encouraging, to put it mildly.

is being concoured any worse than being conquered?

(Had to be said- Jackalope out)

No kidding. Those kind of Jews are as much a part of the problem as Hamas.

(Moderate atheist Jew here, by way of obligatory disclaimer.)

You know, I wrote a whole rant, then I deleted it.

Lum’s description covers, basically, the entire sane gamut of Zionism. Unless “stacking rifles” means “going out and killing all the Arabs” or something that I missed.

No, she didn’t want to kill the Arabs. Just deport them to Jordan. Not really a bad person, just not containing a whole lot of empathy towards Palestinians; her view was that Israel + West Bank + Gaza was the Jewish homeland and the Arabs had no business being there. When I tried pointing out the problems with that (mainly the Arabs who do in fact, you know, live there) she decided I was part of the problem and “believed everything the media told me.”

I suspect if I talked to a member of Hamas I’d have much the same conversation. For example Time, in a recent issue covering the 40th anniversay of the Six Day War, did a feature on a typical moderate average Palestinian family living in the West Bank, caught in the crossfire, etc. Except left uncommented was, in one picture of the family’s living room, hanging framed on the wall was a homey picture of Palestine. It included the pre-1967 Israeli parts.

You’re not going to get too many people to compromise any more, I don’t think.

Ah, the Ferdinand and Isabella solution. Wonderful.

Just for the record, Fatah is not that much less insane than Hamas. They are more realistic, and are willing to negotiate a peace with Israel, but the ultimate goal is the eradication of Israel and a peace treaty is an interim solution. That’s the impression I got anyway. Fatah are nationalist and are more secular than Hamas.

Firefox spell checker FTW again. But now it highlights the offending mistake. How embarrassing.

Lum - please tell your friend to stay put. We have enough meshigenes here as it is on both sides.

After reading some last night I came to conclusion that this is all orchestrated by Syria. Assad Jr. wants the Golan heights back. Now he would rather enter negotiations with Israel, but Israel wont negotiate for these reasons:

  1. Public opinion is not ready yet
  2. This government is too weak too take decisions of this magnitude.
  3. The USA wants Assad gone. A peace treaty will strengthen his regime.

So Assad is busy preparing his military for a confrontation. The idea is to bomb Israeli population centers (Hizbulla style) until Israel is forced to enter negotiations. If Assad fears an early prevention strike by Israel (which is not likely but who knows), he needs something else to occupy the IDF with for the time. Hamas controlling Gaza strip is very good at that.
Also, once he starts with his offensive, it doesn’t hurt to maintain another front in the south.

I just read that Fatah started arresting Hamas man in the west bank. Abbas also might disband the Palestinian government and declare an emergency situation. About time.
It was also said that these measures will be canceled if Hamas accepts yet another truce. What a wuss. Once Hamas realizes that it has made the most out of this they will accept the truce and prepare for the next round just like they did before.

Fifth option: Deus Ex Machina. And if He, assuming his existence, hasn’t shown his hand outright as yet, I don’t think He will do so in the near future.

He’s waiting for that Russian/Ethiopian Nuke attack.

Why would God step in and screw up the beautiful blood opera that is the Holy Land? This is exactly the kind of stuff that makes him feel special and important.