The second Cohen sentencing memo directly implicates Trump in one, possibly two crimes - which turn out to be Stormy Daniels related, not Russia related. Kurt Eichenwald explains:
P1 is the one where Individual 1 is specifically implicated - that being Trump. That constitutes a campaign finance violation. However, this is a low level violation, and one that is open to interpretation depending on the specifics of what Cohen says.
Trump could fight this one and, in the end, he might defeat it by simply saying “Cohen told me this was out of his home equity, I considered it a favor, and did not have anything to do with my campaign.” Not so believable? Sure. But without specific designation of Trump’s knowledge and intent regarding that payment, he could easily argue technical violation based on poor information -or disagree that there was a violation at all by saying this was not about the campaign, but for, say, keeping Melania from finding out he had banged a porn star.
So don’t break out the champagne quite yet: Trump may skate on P1. But, that’s not all:
…which leads us to P2 - the MAJOR crime, with the payments coming out of the Trump Organization… The sentencing memo does not say that Trump was involved in P2. It doesn’t say he wasn’t…
…so, what do we know about P2? It was paid after submission of an invoice - a frigging INVOICE - from Cohen to Trump Org saying it was for campaign expenditures. It billed not only the $130,000 for the Stormy payoff, but also another $50,000 in IT work for the campaign…
…the IT payment is the drop dead element. Given the supposed IT work was done for trump CAMPAIGN, paid for by the Trump ORGANIZATION, it shows that his company was issuing checks to cover campaign expenditures. This establishes the intent to commit the crime - that is, to use the Trump Organization as a slush fund for cash to the campaign. Think of it as being like the slush fund of Nixon in Watergate… Here, the Trump Organization is the sole contributor to the slush fund. Now, making this all the worse is that the money flowed through multiple sources to disguise its ultimate source - from a HELOC to a bogus corporation to the recipient of the payment, reimbursed by a corporation to the owner of a HELOC, all in violation of campaign finance rules. That is money laundering - manipulating directions of cash used in a crime for the purpose of concealing its provenance.
…We do not know yet if Trump was involved in this. We also don’t know that he wasn’t. What we know is this happened - and that Trump was involved on the front end - P1. We will know, once the testimony of the [Trump Organization] CFO [who is cooperating with authorities] comes out, whether Trump was involved in P2, the back end.