If loot boxes didn't exist - would the associated games still be as popular?

Good for the Dutch taking steps to deal with this. The fact that FIFA spawned some of the most egregious hack and scam system years ago showed how bad this system was setup to be. https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2018/04/dutch-government-rules-some-loot-boxes-count-as-illegal-gambling/

Question is, how much of an impact would there be on games like FIFA, Madden, Overwatch, CS, Team Fortress, Battlegrounds, Fortnite, Battlefront Series, CoD etc if there was no loot box period?

It’s almost certainly worse for games that monetize gameplay advantages than those that monetize cosmetic content - it’s much easier to sell costumes directly than power-ups.

Lootboxes are more profitable than straight-up selling DLC, because they often don’t reward anything the player wants and yet variable rewards act as a skinner box, hacking the human brain to make it want to continue gambling.

But from the player’s perspective, are they themselves fun? Do they offer compelling gameplay? Would hearing a game has lootboxes make you more likely to play? Nah.

The sole impact of removing lootboxes from the landscape will be a smaller profit margin. That’s it.

I disagree - because FIFA Ultimate Team and its kin use a CCG model that’s a little different from what we usually consider when talking about lootboxes, they straight-up don’t work without the randomization. They could still exist without the real-money purchases, just letting players earn booster packs through normal play and rebalancing accordingly, but they no longer justify their existence at that point because they aren’t bringing in obscene amounts of money anymore.

(That said, they could probably get around this the same way real CCGs do, by guaranteeing a specific distribution of cards within a pack, but that’s also antithetical to their model of “sell you ten packs and make sure nine of them are utter trash to reinforce the idea that you have to buy a bunch of packs at a time to get anything good.”)

Something like Overwatch still works perfectly fine if you remove the real-money lootbox purchases (probably retaining the ones you earn through play, because it is fun to level up or clear a mode for the first time and get some random items) and sell skins directly for players willing to pay for them, because all the lootbox stuff is purely cosmetic there.

Lol my son has been begging me to buy him some stuff on the Fifa mobile game… I keep telling him, “son in this family we don’t pay to win”

CCGs don’t really count. I can’t imagine Magic or Hearthstone working without random card packs, because that’s kind of the whole point.

I completely disagree.

God Magic would be so much more fun without rarity or boosters or the entire monetization model. Just play the awesome strategic card game and don’t worry whether the mouthbreathing cheetobeard across the table from you spent the $4,000 necessary to guarantee victory.

Well yes, but it has to be monetized somehow. The alternative is just straight-up charging more for powerful cards. Or charging more for complete sets, but less than assembling a set via random packs.

And thus … the conundrum. We’ve seen the carnage ad networks on “free” stuff has wrought, plus the way this model inevitably leads to a few giant companies knowing everything everyone does (hello Facebooks).

So yeah, if it’s a choice between “free + ads” and “lootboxes” I will absolutely pick lootboxes every time. And you should too.

I’m just not sure how else a CCG would monetize itself. There aren’t any cosmetics to sell, they’re just cardgames. Collecting cards is the whole point, and selling powerful cards straight-up is blatant pay2win, even though sure, buying card packs is the same deal.

That does not translate to other genres, though.

Not quite - people are quite willing to pay for cosmetic upgrades, like foil cards, alternate-art cards, new card backs (sleeves), and even silly external things like player avatars. There’s plenty to monetize outside of the card collection aspect.

The problem is that digital CCGs like Hearthstone and Shadowverse rely on a slow and grindy economy to keep players engaged with the game over longer periods of time and ultimately encourage them to buy packs and speed up collecting the cards they need for the hot new meta deck, while games like Magic and Eternal actually justify their booster-pack model through “limited” formats like booster draft and sealed deck, unique gameplay experiences that are difficult to replicate without a randomized pool of cards. Furthermore, the sort of gameplay CCGs are typically built around has turned out to be rather difficult to implement in a non-collectible format, with most attempts over the years having some number of failings (horrible balance, lack of variety, different oppressive business model, or even just being a good game but not scratching the same gameplay itch).

This is legitimately fascinating stuff. Which CCG would you say has been the most successful at remaining a viable, interesting game over the years without turning players into victims along the way?

I’d probably say Magic and the Pokémon TCG, though for very different reasons.

Magic has thrived on constantly offering different ways to play the game for different audiences, whether it’s the rotating Standard format, non-rotating formats like Modern and Legacy, “casual” formats like Commander and Planechase, and even game types that turn it into a more board game-like experience, like Archenemy and the standalone box Explorers of Ixalan. That said, the game’s business model does have problems, chief among them being an overloaded product line (something they seem to be working to cut back on) and the looming specter of the Reserved List, a promise from the game’s early days that has slowly made Legacy and Vintage impossible for players to get into in the paper world, and could eventually threaten to destroy Commander as well.

Pokémon has some very interesting stuff going on with its business model; most desirable cards’ prices are kept low by large print runs and constant reprints, both in randomized product and in promotional boxes. It also probably helps that the game is aimed toward kids despite having a great deal of depth, so the tournament try-hards that would destroy the economy mostly shy away from it.

This is my primary issue with MtG at the end of the day. Some of the coolest, most fun cards are basically banned forevermore from even being printed again, limiting the supply to a laughable handful, causing prices to skyrocket absurdly, and the problem gets worse every single year as copies of the cards are lost or damaged.

I purely play kitchen table Magic these days with friends whenever we hang out, jamming cards together from two dozen sets into ramshackle operations that we call decks. Knowing there are awesome cards for my decks that would enormously improve them, but also knowing that stocking up on said cards could cost dozens or even hundreds of dollars apiece, is really depressing.

Like, it’s a goddamn piece of cardboard with rules text and art on it that costs a fraction of a penny to produce. Make enough of them for everyone to have what they want, and rely on the (very good) strength of your rules and tournament formats (well, those that survive the loss of rarity) carry the game forward.

This problem is actually worse for low-level competitive players, who need to spend hundreds to have a chance at winning in formats like Modern (and, increasingly, Commander), or thousands, in some cases, for Legacy/Vintage.

the popular part of fortnite has no loot boxes, so not sure why that one is on your list. the answer to that question is easy, no difference since they don’t exist ;) In general I think a lot of the games would still be popular without it, and a fair number probably were only ‘popular’ because people were hooked with trying to get more of the things.

If Overwatch had come out 20 years ago with no loot boxes it would have been an amazing hit. If it had released when it did with no loot boxes, I think it would have flopped. These days your average player simply won’t play a game that doesn’t have a sense of ‘progression’ even if that is just earning a free spin on a wheel.

Very naive and stupid question:
With CCG isn’t it laughibly simple to just print out your own set including those rare ones you would officially have to pay through the nose for? (I assume that you can find some pics online and use those to print, or if you know the stats just create your own version)

I know thats “cheating”, but if you really want those cards and don’t have the big bucks and inclination to buy 1000 booster packs to hopefully find 10 cards, I think it becomes a viable option. (obviously just for private use in your home or with friends)

At the absolute minimum, your friends will probably hate you if you decide to print up copies of all the amazing cards none of you can afford. Beyond that, plenty of people make proxies for casual play and for playtesting, but only ever in a closed environment where there’s no chance of mistaking them for the real thing and no attempts to pass them off as real for resale or other reasons. You won’t see them in competitive settings, as (at least in Magic’s case) both players and event organizers can get in serious trouble for their use.

Also, generally speaking, no one should be opening booster packs to try to get the cards they need - that’s what the secondary market is for, and it’s usually better to support your LGS by buying singles from them than to purchase booster packs.