3272

Hey now, lets not get crazy. Raising wages? What next, affordable healthcare?

3273

I think this is a huge factor in the lower labor force participation rate. If you look at the long-term data, you see the upward curve running for several decades as households transitioned to two-earner households. That abruptly ends in 2008 when the Great Recession hits, and the participation rate drops as people lose their jobs, and the recovery is a wage-less recovery, which leads some people to eventually decide that the work they can get isn’t worth the wage it pays and remain on the sidelines. Basically the financial meltdown forced people to get by with less, and they leaned how to do that over the long recovery, and the jobs they can get today suck.

3274

They have without success. There’s only so much you can pay people to bus tables before your budget is fucked up. I’m sure if they wanted to pay cleaners the same as nurses they’d find plenty of interested people but then the nurses would be furious when they saw the job postings so you’d have to raise them up as well. In a building with close to 200 employees that needs to be staffed 24/7/365, it adds up quickly.

3275

To me it is important to differentiate between menial, low paying jobs, in reasonable working conditions that have to be done local and they truly dirty and dangerous jobs that can be outsource.

I think you can raise wages, for dishwashers, busboys, janitors, etc. and get workers. Yes, it very well may mean increasing prices, or reducing profits, but since your competitors are going to face similar challenges, it won’t really matter.

On the other hand, they’ve tried raising wages to $20/hour plus 401K benefits for farm labor in many parts of the country and simply aren’t getting enough workers. At some point the cost of labor will simply make American fruits and vegetables noncompetitive. The same thing is true for the fish processing factory in Mississippi. Lots of folks would rather earn $12/hour working in air-conditioned Walmart, than $20/hour in a smelly factory filleting catfish in the Mississippi heat. I know I would.

3276

What are the numbers here? At what hourly wage do American fruits and vegetables become “non-competitive”?

In agriculture, labor costs are roughly 20% to 40% of the retail price, with a midpoint at 30%. So doubling wages increases the costs of fruit and veggies by 30%. Tripling wages increases the costs in the ballpark of 60% and so on. At what point does this “non-competitive” concept kick in?

I’m not denying that wages that rise too high can be an issue, but what I’m saying is the numbers matter. And just opposing wage increases due to nebulous fears about “competitiveness” without actual crunching the numbers, seeing what works, trying actual changes and measuring the market impacts, etc., is just fear-mongering.

I firmly believe there are wages that could be paid that would cause every single job in America to be done by Americans, and that in almost all cases, although there would be modest inflationary effects, it would not go over some cliff of “non-competitiveness”. For several reasons, including the oft-overlooked reality that raising wages to workers both raises demand for goods (by increasing the buying power of workers) and also makes many of those workers less “price sensitive” and thus more tolerate of price increases to offset the higher wages.

There are downsides to any major change, but simply stating that there are some potential downsides and then immediately jumping to “therefore we cannot do anything and wages must stay pitiful” is not a leap I will make.

Hey, I have an idea, that is both science and market based. The science part is, let’s test these ideas! The market part is, let’s raise wages and see how the market responds. We’ve had an expanding economy with stagnant wages for 80% of the population for 50 years. Let’s change that up and measure the results.

I have the courage of my convictions to believe that the positives will massively outweigh the negatives, and if they don’t, then we can adjust. An example of what I mean is a gradually phased in minimum wage increase: if the nay-sayers are right and an economic catastrophe happens when we raise wages somewhat, then we can halt or slow down the phase in and make necessary adjustments. But to just do nothing is insane IMO.

3277

Right now we have more jobs opening than job seekers. Unless you have some magic human growth, that makes kids grown up faster or cloning tech. We are going to need more workers. (I realize that labor participation rate is not very high, but I think that’s a longer discussion)

The last couple of years we have seem income growth accelerate especially at the lower end (4% wage growth for the lowest 25%) https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/02/business/economy/wage-growth-economy.html

I’d rather have Mexican and Central America workers pick fruits and vegetables on American farms, than import vegetable from those same countries. I think I can make a case that Central America is actually better off getting repatriation from those US workers, given the high unemployment rates there.

Ideally this would be some type of guest worker program.

3278

The thing is, you already buy a ton of produce that’s grown outside of America. That’s the price you are competing against, not simply an upper limit on what people will pay.

You might be able to increase prices and gold will still but the food at that price, but if someone from Mexico is selling the same produce for less, they are going to beat you.

3279

If that is the case, maybe we shouldn’t be producing as much in the US. I mean, that what it means to do global trade, right, to make things in the places that it makes the most sense?

3280

Sure, but then what are you accomplishing?
You aren’t improving the lives of the workers… If anything, the working conditions in the other countries, and their pay, is going to be worse.

You aren’t creating jobs in the US.

You’re essentially just taking some portion of the money that would be going to a farmer in the US, and giving it to a long distance transportation company, and then giving the rest of it to a farmer (likely a giant international agricultural corporation) in another country who treats their employees even worse.

So what are you gaining?

3281

I am perfectly aware of the limitations of the unemployment rate. It’s the rate we use. For statistical purposes, we’re very much at full employment right now, and no, that doesn’t mean everyone who wants a job has one or even the one that want. It has never meant that.

3282

What do you mean? We talk about wages all the time.

3283

I was referring to posts and anecdotes like the one above where the person was saying there was a shortage of workers for a business without mentioning the wages at all, not to our more general discussion. I should probably have used the word statements rather than discussions.

3284

Oh yeah, yeah for sure.

It’s hard to take a business seriously when they say they can’t fill positions at say 11.37 an hour. Minimum wage in Oregon is currently 11.25. So these are basically just minimum wage jobs in an environment where we’re essentially, by definitions we actually use, at full employment.

That doesn’t mean i think some business owners aren’t really trying, or that some job seekers anen’t frustrated in their search… I just question if after 2009 some of our business just conveniently forgot how to compete and get their workers.

3285

anecdotally here in PDX land, there is a place where I can go to get undocumented workers for weekend projects.

A few years ago, standard rate was $10 per hour cash.

Today it’s $15

Cash.

They know the labor crisis and they are charging market rates. This is for anything you want them to do - weed, dig ditches, paint, whatever.

They just stand in front of the cultural center and people come by and pick them up. If you’re not there by at least 8:30 or so, you don’t get any workers.

3286

I have seen similar play out here (I think I know the place), in the near Chicago suburbs (was next to a Home Depot by my old job), and in the central California valley.

When we were driving out of Napa and to he coast we saw farmers in their pickups negotiating with maybe 12-15 men by some old farm supply store. I can only assume they were hiring some number of people for cash for the day.

It’s funny how different the contexts and locations were, yet how similar the phenomenon.

3287

Not exactly market rates, because they don’t get benefits and benefits can be a huge chunk of someone actual income/wage.

I get what you mean. Yeah they’re not asking for 11 dollars. Hell I’ve been told, repeatedly, it’s almost impossible to get anyone licensed to do smaller yard projects because they’re too busy tricking out Mj and hemp farms… for cash, off record.

We now have hemp farms everywhere which apparently is our next big cash drop since the MJ domes are vanishing, but they were paying cash to anyone since they can’t actually get accounts.

So yeah, I agree, if someone says I can’t get Americans to do my jobs, and they don’t say how much it is, if there are benefits, if they will take anyone with a minor record, are they would of those part-time gigs that require/demand full time available, etc, if they rotate shifts so their employees never know when they’re working, if they require prepaid cards (these should be banned)… it’s complicated. It really is. Way more than Americans won’t work hard implies.

3288

Well, it isn’t, not the only one. We also use the labor participation rate.

3289

Well, much of it is the off season stuff. Grown there and sold here when it is off season to grow it here. That is why stores can have some veggies and fruits year round.

Farmers here have always faced the question of what to do with what they grow. Look at how much stuff does get sent overseas and how fickle the markets are.

Farming isn’t easy. What sells today in one place may not sell there two years from now.

3290

And if I wanted to use that stat, I would’ve. Can we focus on what is going on and not have a government stat debate where we discuss the limitations and how to convince various government bodies to use or not use a particular one and maybe just agree that this is not 2009, and we have a lot of job openings? It’s a tight market. Employers actually should be competing for workers, and some of them seemed to have forgotten how to do that or maybe they just want the government to somehow fix that for them.

3291

The US is the place where it makes the most sense to grow things. Almost all US farms are heavily mechanized in automation. Let’s compare growing tomatoes in Guatemala and Central Valley, CA
Guatemala California
Size 3-5 acres 10,000+
Irrigation Hand pump, buckets or ditches Sophicated drip irrigation
Fertilizer Animal manure spread by hand Scientifically controlled
Pesticide None/hand sprayed/ Crop Dusters
Harvesting Hand Mechanized+Hand
Distribution Horse push cart Trucks and trains

Having the two oldest boys in Guatemala pick tomatoes at $15/home and send some money home, rather than try and find work at $2/day at home or try and squeeze a few extra tomatoes out of the family farm is win for everyone involved. American farmers, Guatemalans and the environment all benefit.