I don’t think you’re getting what I’m talking about at all. I’m talking about the value of ratings and multiple seasons to determine if Netflix will pick up previously-aired episodes of a network series to rebroadcast via streaming. Whether they pick up a show to produce wholly new episodes is impossible to predict, and a tangent I’m uninterested in.
At any rate…
Netflix has never gone in after previously-aired episodes of Community to air via streaming.
They’ve never aired an episode of Community on US Netflix. They’ve never gotten past an initial inquiry stage. Part of the reason seems to be that the ask is far outside some of the metrics by which Netflix or Prime feel comfortable in going, and a part of that metric is the (Nielsen) ratings of the show.
And in the US, Nielsens ARE ratings. Period. That’s what still means a whole lot. To say that someone cares about ratings but not Nielsens is like saying someone loves swimming but hates getting wet, at least in America.
At any rate, Netflix cares about Nielsens marginally as they look at series and studio packages to bid on. I suspect it’s part of a series of factors they look at when they construct bids to re-air previously broadcast shows for streaming.
As far as original series on stuff like Netflix or Prime…there’s no really good way to estimate them other than self-reported numbers, so I’m not particularly interested in such shows. Flipping a coin might be as accurate as any guesses we can make. When a network series is cancelled or renewed, you can see the method and the reasoning. With Prime or Netflix or Yahoo or Crackle or whatever, it’s often left to the whim of the Network with their own internal metrics, of which only partial bits are ever shared.
Anyway, to recap, here’s the extent to which Netflix or Prime cares about ratings (or Nielsen Ratings, if you like) of US shows:
Higher ratings mean more seasons. Netflix will pay more for a show with 4-6 seasons than a show with just one or two.
Ratings (once again, Nielsen ratings) are a part of what I imagine is a sliding scale algorithm that Netflix and Prime use when deciding how much to bid for shows, sitting alongside “can we package this as part of a bigger deal” and demographics profiles from the Nielsens and likely other factors (including, shudder, crap like iTunes downloads).
Figuring out which already-aired shows that Netflix will pick up to re-air is beyond the scope of this thread, or likely any other observer, due to all the internal cogs that turn in figuring out how that happens. Figuring out which shows Netflix will choose to produce new episodes of is even more arcane.
I don’t think you’re getting what I’m talking about at all. I’m talking about the value of ratings and multiple seasons to determine if Netflix will pick up previously-aired episodes of a network series to rebroadcast via streaming. Whether they pick up a show to produce wholly new episodes is impossible to predict, and a tangent I’m uninterested in.
Fine, though like I say, they picked up a previously aired show with demonstrably low Neilsen ratings in AD.
Netflix has never gone in after previously-aired episodes of Community to air via streaming.
Yes they have. It’s on UK Netflix. And Friends isn’t, despite being on the US version now (though, you’ll note, long after it’s been syndicated to death everywhere else). Presumably it was more expensive to get the US rights to Community. But that’s the point - Neilsens aren’t the be-all-and-end-all. Netflix have shown themselves quite willing to make bold deals for fairly low-ratings shows (eg Breaking Bad airing effectivley simultaneously with US TV in overseas markets) provided they have a lot of buzz. Obviously it’s not a hard and fast rule, and I don’t claim to have any insight into their negotiation process, but the point is that Netflix has a track record of picking up buzzy but not hugely popular shows over ratings gold shows. My guess is that this is because networks put a higher value on those Neilsens (because advertising) than Netflix does. Obviously Netflix wants to have shows people will want to watch, which to a certain degree correlates with ratings. But listen to Netflix talk and they’re constantly banging on about how their big data gives them better insight into what their users actually like.
And in the US, Nielsens ARE ratings. Period. That’s what still means a whole lot. To say that someone cares about ratings but not Nielsens is like saying someone loves swimming but hates getting wet, at least in America.
Well, yes, this is my point. The traditional side of the TV industry is still wedded to Neilsens as thesignifier of a programme’s popularity, despite the well known shortcomings of the technology and the inherent deprecation of time-shifting, which of course all Netflix shows are. The point I’m making is that that is largely due to the circumstances of the advertising market, which Netflix doesn’t give a shit about. Consequently they are likely to value Neilsens, as opposed to DVD sales, say, quite differently from the networks.
Its kind of interesting that the industry hasn’t caught up with the streaming concept when ratings are concerned. Most of the network streams include commercials which you can not skip while most people now days record and skip commercials on live tv. Youre more apt to watch a commercial on a streamed show than one that’s live because of dvr tech. Hell, if Im watching something at its normal time on live, Ill record it do something else for around 15 minutes and then start watching the show, skipping all of the commercials as I go. The Nielsens are tied to a concept of TV that’s pre DVR and its now somewhat obsolete.
From what I’ve heard it might just be Caity Lotz the actress as a new character. However that might confuse people so we may get some Lazarus Pit shenanigans before the end of the season, who knows.
What’s interesting is that there’s evidence that the networks originally jumped in on the whole streaming thing as an indicator of success. Anecdotal evidence suggests that one of the reasons NBC stayed with The Office even though the season 2 ratings were not so hot was the way the show performed on the iTunes charts when it was early days on buying TV episodes there.
Somewhere that calculus changed. Maybe streaming didn’t add up to positive performance. Maybe the networks got more cautious. Dunno. But after originally paying attention, right now they sorta don’t.
In the three years I’ve been following him on Twitter or at TV By The Numbers, I think he’s been wrong twice, and both of his wrongs were on shows he had rated as toss-ups fairly late.
Yeah, I’ve been following him for about as long. It’s a bit looking behind the curtain though, so don’t go there if you don’t want to know how the sausage is made.
Well, that’s why I made this thread as a separate entity apart from the various series threads themselves. This is the sausage making thread. If you’re in here, you’re interested in the process.
Speaking of which, here’s an excellent article today on what factors matter–and don’t–in the renewal/cancellation Hokey-Pokey.
Triggercut didn’t link to anything when he said it was cancelled, but that comicbook.com link was from earlier in the day than triggercut’s claim that it’s over. So it’s probably over.
Like I said, for what its worth. Not saying hes wrong, in fact hes most likely right. But I will say that Cerones info regarding the Constantine came after and was in direct response to the news that it had been officially cancelled. Do I expect it to be cancelled, unfortunately, yes I do. Its a costly show to produce and the numbers do not support renewal. Is it officially cancelled? No it isn’t. Maybe a decision has already been made and the top execs are lying to Cerone and making him jump through needless hoops and circles for their own personal amusement or maybe they just like holding useless meetings just for chuckles wasting their time as well. Who knows? I believe they wouldn’t waste this time and effort unless there was some slim hope of saving the show. Anyway we should know for sure by May.
Seems like Hulu/Netflix/Amazon Prime have thrown a wrench into the metrics. Shows don’t have to stay on network TV to get episodes aired anymore, for syndication.
What’s interesting about The Mindy Project is that NBC/Universal–the show’s producers–have no desire to air a final season on NBC. What the hell else does NBC have for comedies?
So yeah, I guess the shifting dynamic with the streaming services and the fact that this was an NBC show on FOX (if it was a FOX-produced show, I think it gets a final season) made it expendable.
Undatable (NBC) is awesome, but I’m not sure why they seem to back it and not Mindy (I’ve never watched Mindy though, and I’ve seen all of Undateable).
