Inverted yield curve and Recession watch

Well, I also invested in Costco at the time ($55/share then, almost $300/share now) and Amazon, so…

Was still plowing money into my 403b - index funds (state employee, so I also have a pension) too.

Hmmm. Comscore charged with Fraud for inflating sales:

https://twitter.com/alexweprin/status/1176562680980807688

From the click-through:

Washington D.C., Sept. 24, 2019 —

The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged global information and media analytics firm, Comscore, Inc., and its former CEO with engaging in a fraudulent scheme to overstate revenue by approximately $50 million and making false and misleading statements about key performance metrics.

The SEC’s orders find, among other things, that from February 2014 through February 2016, Comscore, at the direction of its former CEO Serge Matta, entered into non-monetary transactions for the purpose of improperly increasing its reported revenue. Through these transactions, Comscore and a counterparty would negotiate and agree to exchange sets of data without any cash consideration. Comscore recognized revenue on these transactions based on the fair value of the data it delivered, which had been improperly increased in order to inflate revenue

Just a data point.

Good thread on the repo blowout below. No further insight on the proximate cause, but some good context on why it panned out the way it did.

That was interesting, thanks!

EVERYONE is talking about how there is going to be a recession, but no one can tell me why or the timing. Should I stay or should I go?

If I go there might be trouble (market might swing up and I’ll miss more growth)
If I stay it will be double (investments tank)

If someone knows this, that person could become infinitely rich.

I keep hoping someone will tell me when to bet 00 at roulette, too.

The time before the ball lands on it, duh.

The repo squeeze is happening again, kind of.

https://www.ft.com/content/1374afd4-181d-11ea-9ee4-11f260415385

This one was expected, and it’s nowhere near as extreme as before. It’s also a forward rate for 31 December, not the spot. There’s always a liquidity squeeze at the very end of the year, so it’s not surprising to see it in the repo market. But it may well get bigger as we get closer.