In theory - yes. In practice - no. Considering active anti-jewish state position of arab parties, the other parties will never join coalition with them. And since Israel is a democracy we go back to the birthrates, as I’ve pointed out in my post.
It’s all “in theory” unless you know of an time when the Arab demographic was greater “in practice”…
The Arab parties don’t need to form coalitions in order to influence policy. In parliamentary democracies, like Israel’s, tight votes can be influenced by non-aligned parties. If one party needs to get important legislation through, they will trade votes with other parties to get it passed.
There are also plenty of Jewish Israelis who oppose disciminatory laws like the ones disallowing citizenship for Arabs marrying Israelis. In fact less obviously discriminatory laws, like the one that gave more child benefit to those serving in the IDF (Arabs don’t serve), have been struck down without needing a significantly increased Arab demographic.
Many Israelis, like Benjamin Netanyahu, are already concerned about the proportion of Arabs, and the general concensus is that around 25% will be the tipping point; the figure where Arabs will start to flex their demographic muscle. This concern will spread as the demographic grows, and the reaction of the majority to the growing minority will be the real test of Israel’s democracy.
Again, you are talking on an abstract level, without much connection to the Israel realities. The type of votes that arab parties are most interested are not going to be “tight” in Knesset, and they will be opposed by all non-arab parties. Which makes your arguments rather moot. In fact even to bring them to the Knesset’s floor arab will need to have a majority in Knesset or to be part of the governing coalition, the chances of which are zero in the short/medium future.
Bottom line - as I said your “test” of israel democracy is not going to happen anytime soon.
David, calling my argument “abstract” or based “only on theory” is rude. You may as well call it “shit”. If you want to show how my argument is shit, please just argue your case instead of resorting to unnecessary labels. If you are speaking the truth, and able to explain yourself clearly, it should be easy.
Israeli politics is not as partizan as you seem to think. Arabs vote for non-Arab parties. In fact nearly half of Arabs vote for non-Arab parties. Not all Jews support the policies that keep the Arab demographic growing even faster than the birth-rate. Arabs have lower voting rates because they feel disenfranchised. There are hundreds of thousands of Arabs in East Jerusalem who have not yet taken up Israeli citizenship.
As the Arab vote gets bigger and more important, parties who rely on Arab votes to win the election are going to have to offer policies that attract Arab voters. These are the kind of policies that can change the Arab demographic. This is what many Jewish Israelis fear will happen if action isn’t taken to prevent this.
What about the long term future though? So what you’re saying is that ultimately Israel will not have a Jewish majority. It just makes this all seem so pointless. So we are having all this fighting and bloodshed so that Israel can be Jewish state for another 100 years with the knowledge that it’s all going to go away after that? That makes no sense to me.
If the state is ultimately not going to be Jewish, why not make that declaration now, and say that all citizens are equal and that the government cannot make policies which are preferential to one religious or ethnic group over another.
Thanks but I have no intention of calling your arguments “shit”. I think I’ve explained pretty clearly what I meant - that your arguments may be correct in some generic democratic country but that they do not take into account specific realities of israel politics. And I’ve explained why do I think so.
There is no need for self-abasement here.
By the way the fact that significant portion of arab population votes for non-arab parties proves my point rather than yours. The main reason why they are doing it is because naturally they are very familiar with local political situation. They want their votes count when it comes to Knesset’s politics, rather than just make a statement by voting for the party which has little influence on the state’s politics and no chance of being part of the ruling coalition or majority party. Needless to say they would much rather vote for arab party but they are being realistic.
It’s not that much different from Nader’s supporters voting for Gore in 2004 election here in the US.
Not really, I didn’t say it. What I said is that Israel will continue to have jewish majority in the short term and medium term future. Frankly I don’t know what will happen to Israel 60 years or 100 years from now. I doubt anybody can tell that considering how quickly and drastically things can change in Middle East. In such volatile environment things rapidly become blurry if you try to look far ahead.
It occurs to me that you’ve misunderstood my fundamental point. It’s not that an increasing Arab majority would cause Israel to become less of a Jewish state, only that it could. And in the fact that it could, there are enough Jewish Israelis who will fear that outcome enough to enact anti-democratic laws to prevent it.
The fact that laws like the forbidding of non-Jews becoming citizens through marriage exist, is all the proof that I need of the threat this poses to Israel’s democratic framework.
There’s a good article here which discusses the Arab minority and their political motivations.
Before Amendment No. 9 to Section 7A of the Basic Law was passed in 1985, section 7A outlined the individuals who were prohibited from applying for candidacy in the Knesset. The typical group of existing government officials, the President, military officers, state employees, etc., was listed in the terms of exclusion. In 1985, the following criteria were added to the exclusionary terms:
A candidates’ list shall not participate in elections to the Knesset if its objects or actions, expressly or by implication, include one of the following:
* Negation of the existence of the State of Israel as the state of the Jewish people;
* Negation of the democratic character of the State;
* Incitement to racism[7]
The first bullet that described Israel “as the state of the Jewish people” was justifiably met with outrage by the Arab population. It implied that any Israeli Arab who wanted to apply for candidacy in the Knesset had to subordinate himself to his Jewish peers and accept their domination of his homeland. The two additional directives that referred to the “democratic character of the State” and “incitement of racism” were disturbingly ironic.
I have no idea what you might or might not have in mind, I only know what you wrote. I’ve replied to your post where you said: “Arab demographic is inevitably going to increase to a point where they can challenge this [jewish state of Israel]”. Doesn’t look like there is much room for misunderstanding here.
And by the way, speaking of “increasing Arab demographic” - recent 2006 large research by American-Israel Demographic Institute has shown that over the last 10 years (1996-2006) the birth rate of arab families in Israel has dropped sharply (by aprox. 18% percent) , while at the same time birthrate of jewish families has increased (by 8%). It is expected that both trends will continue in the future. Google it if you like, there are quite a few references to that research article.
As for your last post -
<shrug> Anything is possible on this planet that does not contradict certain fundamental laws of physics. How likely is something to happen though is an entirely different matter…
I have no idea what you might or might not have in mind, I only know what you wrote. I’ve replied to your post where you said: “Arab demographic is inevitably going to increase to a point where they can challenge this [jewish state of Israel]”. Doesn’t look like there is much room for misunderstanding here.
Yes, well you won’t find many people arguing with that. But I guess you will :).
You are missing the point once again. I’ve quoted you simply to show you that what you’ve said in your first post is not what you’ve claimed later, when you said that I “misundersood” you.
Are you implying that they have fabricated their research data? If so, do you have any proof of it?
I’ve seen reports go to both way already Tim, usually due to agenda. The demographic scare side can’t prove to be more honest, as a lot of left wings try to use this argument to hurry withdrawal.
My personal opinion is that demographics studies, like most predictions of the future, aren’t worth much. We can find ourselves in 20-30 years having an Arab population that has a birth rate like the Jewish Israeli population, and keep the rate steady. This of course depends on Israel’s success in integrating more of the Arab population into the mainstream.
Oh David, when you quote Shiroko, you should always remember to include this gem, because it would remind you that he is a gigantic racist and his opinions mean shit. He’ll say anything to justify the Apartheid politics of his whackjob government.
