You don’t know Joe! He’s got a whole career of turning certain victory into defeat. The bad Joe stories are just going to keep coming out, and he’ll make them worse every time he opens his mouth.
Have any of the Bad Joe Stories significantly altered his trajectory yet?
I’m not sure it matters what Joe says about climate change. In office, he’ll want to make a deal to enact some relatively trivial carbon taxes and ‘balance’ them with responsible cuts to social security and Medicare. He’ll do it because, after all, that’s what his Republican friends in the Senate want, and they’re good people.
Is anyone paying attention yet?
If you believe his collegial comments about GOP congressfolk completely override his publicly stated platform, then OK.
But the GOP folk will be there in any case. Their existence is a calamity, but I don’t see that a Biden presidency would be one compared to a Warren or Buttigieg presidency.
If Joe Biden is anyone at all, he’s a man who wants to find common ground with his Republican colleagues in the Senate. It’s his entire career.
Warren isn’t making any grand bargain at the expense of the social safety net. I can’t say the same about Pete, but only because he’s got no track record.
I would say that they’re paying more attention now than they were in August of 1987 when Biden’s plagiarism of Neil Kinnock’s speech spiraled him out of his 1988 candidacy, yes.
If a Democratic president prefers to be combative but the Democrats have not also taken both houses, is there any likely policy gain?
Menzo
3163
The exact same amount of policy gain as if the President wants to be conciliatory.
Please, let’s not pretend that being nice to Mitch McConnell is going to make him see the light. He will not pass a single piece of Democratic legislation no matter who is President.
At least with someone combative we aren’t negotiating against ourselves, though.
Generally, yes, though the situation is worse if the President wants to be conciliatory by making a grand bargain to cut social security and Medicare, and this time McConnell goes for it.
Really? I don’t say they aren’t, but I don’t see why they would be.
Mitch McConnell is the most evil man in American politics, Trump included. I’m not going to pretend being nice to him will be of any use at all, nor did I indicate anything of the sort.
I’m not sure whether either a conciliatory or a non-conciliatory approach makes any difference if GOP controls a majority in the Senate, which is why that issue to me seems like something of a wash. Additionally, I don’t take Biden’s comments as definitively to mean that he will just hope for the GOP to grow consciences. If we are to assume that he is so insincere that his platform (on, say, climate) actually means nothing and will end up in weak-tea tax incentives, then perhaps he is also insincere enough that his comments about playing nice with the GOP are more about securing centrist votes than a prediction of what he will actually do.
Which all goes back to my original point: a Biden nomination would be neither the best case nor the calamity some seem eager to present it as.
Menzo
3167
I definitely agree with this, and guess that most people on this board would too. Not my first choice. Not even my top five choice, but he’d be fine.
CraigM
3169
He’s pretty far down my list.
And by pretty far down I mean basically only above Tulsi.
Oghier
3170
“At least he’s not Tulsi” combined with “literally anyone but Trump” ensures I would support Biden in Nov 2020.
Between now and then, I’m for either Warren or Buttigieg.
Menzo
3171
I’m starting to think my dream ticket would be Warren/Buttigieg. Long way to go, though.
I’d vote for Deez Nuts if I had to.
Dejin
3173
You are oversimplifying this study and ignoring one of the study’s conclusions which is that in fact for some groups it does matter where you go to college. Quoting from the final conclusions of the study itself (see last paragraph of their conclusions section):
The NYTimes “The Upshot” (the Times’s data-based analysis column) summarizes research on attending top-tier universities. Here’s what they say about the study you cite:
These are also the students that would most likely be able to go to an Ivy League university with not only tuition waived but with room and board covered as well. So it would be good to make sure that these students were aware that they can benefit from an elite university and that contrary to popular perception, it will be very inexpensive for them.
The Upshot also notes:
They cite a different study showing that the path to the top 1% for lower-income students does indeed seem to go through elite universities:
Another study suggests that it may be a mistake to go with a lower-rated university that gives you a free-ride.
It isn’t a question of him being insincere. He might be totally sincere, but as a general statement, nobody’s platform will matter if they reach the White House, because they will not have a legislative majority in the Senate. So his sincerity on the issue won’t really matter. Given that, it comes down to character. His character, the arc of his entire career, will push him to make accommodations with the McConnell Senate as a way of ‘making progress’ and bridging the divide.
Who is presenting it as a calamity? If Biden is the nominee, I’m voting for him, no question. As President, he won’t be as good as Obama, but he probably won’t be a lot worse, either.
Also, too, I don’t think he’ll be the nominee, but of course this is all reading tea leaves and making unfounded predictions, isn’t it?
