ShivaX
3878
That picture makes no sense.
According to it CA strongly approves of Trump and Alabama stongly disapproves.
The left/orange of the spectrum is negative net approval.
NC is just as likely to flip as WI- NC was 50-50 in 2018.
Timex
3883
I can understand how it’s higher than their percentage of the population… That is expected. But that chart can’t be right.
Menzo
3884
Why? It just says that white evangelicals come out to vote at a much higher rate than newcomers to the population.
Timex
3885
At exactly 26% of the vote, every time?
Sure, just make sure other groups don’t vote. Every.
That math doesn’t workout unless you assume that white evangelical voted at below the national average of~ 55% (turnout 2004-2016) prior to 2004 and now have 100% turnout today.
Not 100%, but I could see turn out going up as the evangelist start greying. Older people often are more likely to vote, seeing as they are more likely to be unemployed and have the free time to vote. And, I assume that 15% averages a lot older then the starting 23%.
You couple that with the GOP actively trying to depress the votes of minorities and the young, and those numbers seem more reasonable.
You have the upward trend of older white people and the downward pressure on minorities, especially in the south, and you end up with evangelists punching above their weight class.
My guess is that the “US Population” chart includes non-citizens. I’d imagine a chart that shows “eligible voters” would show a much smaller gap
That would be assuming that the percentage of eligible voters have decreased over the decade though.
I think it’s more likely that turnout is the answer. 2014 was the lowest turnout since World War 2, and black voter turn out fell in 2016.
| 2000 |
209,787,000 |
105,594,000 |
50.3% |
| 2004 |
219,553,000 |
122,349,000 |
55.7% |
| 2008 |
229,945,000 |
131,407,000 |
58.2% |
| 2012 |
235,248,000 |
129,235,000 |
54.9% |
| 2016 |
250,056,000 (estimated)[10] |
138,847,000 (estimated)[10] |
55.5% (estimated)[10] |
If turnout was decreasing over the last decade, but the number of white evangelical protestants stead constant, then you would see their numbers rise as a percentage of the population, especially as turn out decreased.
https://www.fairvote.org/voter_turnout#voter_turnout_101
My guess is 2020 will be increased turnout due to crisis.
Menzo
3892
Just the beginning of the right wing wanting to remind voters that Buttigieg is gay.
Notice the wink, wink, nudge, nudge here. Website allows author to write terrible story, gets publicity and clicks on it, then conveniently apologizes hours later.
Timex
3893
What did the article say?
When I make a chart at work with a string of the same numbers all in a row, my instincts scream “bug!” and it usually is.
Timex
3896
Ahh… I actually read that article. And yeah, it was terrible.
I wasn’t sure it was the one being talked about, since they had taken it down.
