Think Trigger posted that a couple of days ago.
Indeed. And it was mindbending then, and the multi-post discussion over a couple of days was also pretty interesting.
Nesrie
3900
CNN’s site is terrible and there is likely an autoplay ad waiting for you.
Timex
3901
Was my initial impression just missing something?
Because to me, that graph is… Not possible.
But then folks started arguing about what would cause evangelicals to become a larger portion of the vote.
It seems likely that the graph was just generated from a dataset that was missing values for everything past 2008, and it got filled it with the same value for every year after that.
The data set is complete and has the data to back up the graph.
In fact, in Pearce’s thread, a couple of people long-handed the data from another source and came up with vote percentages in the same rough range as the NYT graph.
Timex
3903
Really? So it just coincidentally happened to hold steady at seemingly exactly 26% for 10 years?
That seems impossible. I don’t doubt what you are saying, I’m just amazed by it.
A much better article about Mayor Pete coming out process.
I agree it seems highly unlikely, but statistical oddities do occur;
Matt_W
3906
But voter turnout hasn’t been decreasing over the last decade. Excepting 2008, 2016 had the highest presidential election turnout in nearly 50 years. 2018 had the highest turnout in 50 years for midterms. There’s no trend towards voter apathy.
(image source)
Speaking of turnout, Nate Cohn just posted this thread and it’s mildly freaking me the fuck out:
This scares me. This is why I want Warren or Bernie so bad- I think the only way to counter that is to bring in new voters.
Going for another centrist is going to fail.
Yup, a boring “safe” Dem is going to lose. Democrats need to run on shaking things up, not more Republican Lite BS.
The candidate needs to run not just against Trump, but against McConnell and for a public option for medical insurance, and for a decent minimum wage. Finally, for a wealth tax on dollar 50 million and one on up (to claw back some of the ridiculous windfall that the wealthiest got with the Trumpublicans’ tax cuts and with the Bush Jr ones before those).
CraigM
3910
You need to give people something to vote for not just something to vote against.
Which is why Biden is a crap option.
That said I see a lot of policy from several top candidates, so having a vision and plan to be for is certainly present, the problem is getting that message out there. Because the media is shit.
Oghier
3911
When we’re discussing which Dems will beat Trump or lose to him, I suspect we’re all doing so without reference to the only data that matters – polling in WI, PA, FL, OH, MI, CO, NM and maybe one or two other states.
I don’t think that data exists yet. But “what will motivate turnout in WI” is a lot more important than whatever most of us experience in our own geographies.
Timex
3912
Bear in mind, my opinion is different from most here, but I feel like someone like Mayor Pete could thread the needle between “safe” and “energizing”.
He can talk to talk when it comes to progressive policy, and do so with a depth of understanding that few others could.
At the same time, he has a heartland type appeal that gives you everything that you’d get from a “safe” pick. He has a hopeful, pro-America message. He takes shots at Trump (often extremely harsh ones), but somehow doesn’t let that dominate his message.
Ultimately though, I’m not sure if he can get enough of the black vote to win the nomination. I think he’d be a force to be reckoned with in the general though.
Luckily though, since Pete is so young, he’s got options moving ahead. He could be an extremely good VP pick for someone, as I think he’d tear Pence up in a one-on-one VP debate.
Oghier
3913
I would buy a ticket to see that Buttigieg tear a hole in Pence’s fake faith.
CraigM
3914
Mother Am I allowed to go to the debate?
rowe33
3915
He’d likely need to Skype in.
I’ve accepted that Pete is done in this particular election. You can’t poll at literally 0% with African Americans and win the nomination of the Democratic party.
He would be a really excellent VP choice, but it really depends on the nominee. I don’t see Biden, for example, going with a white male on the ticket.
magnet
3917
Some data exist.
This website has an interesting tracker going back to 2017.
