4338

Reading about the Christian health thing, it seems like costs are low because they can just decide not to pay the bills when they come due?

4339

I’ve also heard some nightmare stories. On the other hand she had gall bladder surgery that cost $30K and there was no issue with reimbursement and her husband has autoimmune disease and the costs associated that have been covered.

She told me there is cap of $250K, unless you spend an extra $500-$1,000/YEAR to get that waived.

The process is interesting you start off negotiating for a cash discount with the providers (52% for her surgery) and about the same for her husband procedure. If you a do a good job negotiating you can get the $200/incident co-pay cut in half to $100.

I’m no fan, because I think insurance is one of those industries should be regulated to make sure that you have adequate reserves etc. but they’ve been using it for more than a decade with no issues.

4340

I hope it continues to work for them. Statistically I think there has to be some big loopholes to achieve much savings over an ACA plan.

As an aside, my sister also had gall bladder surgery this year. Thankfully this was Canada so socialized medicine.

4341

It only takes one big claim.

4342

What are you talking about? Cameron and I agree that people should vote for whoever the Dems nominate because Trump is terrible. I cite the example of Bush Jr being terrible and still getting re-elected because the Democrats nominated a safe candidate that no one was enthusiastic about to illustrate that what people should do and what people do is sadly not the same thing.

So again, my point is that nominated by a safe candidate in the hopes of winning over disgruntled Trump voters will backfire because turnout will be lower than in should be for the Democrats.

All of which is my opinion based on what we’ve seen in the past. You’re welcome to disagree.

4343

I’m not sure that’s what happened. What I saw was 1) an incumbent President with an approval rating above 50% during a time of war got re-elected, and even then only after 2) running a campaign to smear his opponent as someone who lied about his war record. I don’t really think that’s on Kerry or the voters who nominated him.

4344

But this is not the past. It’s Trump. It’s very different.

4345

I hope you’re all right. Anyway,I’ll be voting for the eventual nominee and working to convince everyone I know to do the same. I will be nervous is that nominee is Biden but,hopefully needlessly so.

4346

Busy Jr. Was not the same as Trump, and it’s a bad argument to try and suggest they are.

Thinking that kind of thing is what would convince someone that voting for Trump is ok.

4347

I don’t trust my memory on the '04 election so I googled it. You know what? It’s hard finding a decent source. This one from the “Berkeley Daily Planet” (I’ve never heard of it) at least used some data to back up their points. I think I agree with RichVR - the lessons from 2004 probably do not apply to 2020 since trump is, shall we say, unique.

Bush triumphed in a popularity contest: 93 percent of Republicans voted for him, while only 89 percent of Democrats favored Kerry. Exit polls indicated that a vote for Bush was primarily an affirmation; 81 percent of the president’s supporters said they voted for him, rather than against his opponent. In contrast, only 55 percent of Democrats voted for Kerry; 35 percent cast their vote because they were against a continuation of the Bush regime.

This relative lack of enthusiasm for Kerry showed up dramatically when pollsters asked voters for reasons they voted for and against Kerry and Bush.

There was a pattern: Kerry tended to get positive support for his policies and Bush for his personal qualities. The converse was also true: Kerry was criticized for his personal qualities, flip-flopping, and Bush for his policies. (Interestingly, only 11 percent of those polled saw Bush’s “rigid/stubborn leadership” as a negative.) While voters tended to see Kerry as more intelligent than Bush, and better able to express himself, Bush was viewed as the stronger leader and the most honest and religious.

4348

I think it’s simpler than that. An incumbent president in a good economy with a decent job approval rating during a war is generally going to win.

My problem with the have to pick an exciting candidate / electable candidate theme isn’t that it is wrong — of course you want to pick a candidate who excites people, etc. My problem is that we don’t really know how to measure electability until afterward. Kerry was unexciting and unelectable because he lost, not the other way around. Clinton was unexciting and unelectable because she lost. And so on.

I don’t want Biden mostly because I don’t like Biden. I don’t think he will be a very good President, and I think he is likely to do the wrong thing even if he manages to do anything. That said, I have no idea if he is electable or not.

4349

I agree with that, but the exit polls according to the link indicate Kerry didn’t generate much enthusiasm. But the '04 field was anemic - Kerry was 5% in the polls leading up to IA. He won there and it was a cake walk to the nomination after that.

But yeah, it is impossible to measure “electability.” See one donald j. trump as Exhibit 1.

4350

That’s essentially an argument to put to someone who had a cool personality, regardless of their policy positions.

4351

Certainly seems that way.

I couldn’t even tell you who among the current crop would be ‘most’ likable on a normative scale. Mayor Pete or Booker, probably? Dunno.

4352

I think Pete would easily win the charisma contest among the current crop. Booker has his moments too, but isn’t quite as consistently smooth.

4353

I think it’s Biden. But nobody believes this but me, it would seem.

4354

Well on this forum maybe, but the polling would say you’re right.

4355

Those results are very consistent with my memory also. I’d put out a slightly different take. Among marginal Democratic voters, Kerry wasn’t inspiring enough to come out and vote for, and Bush wasn’t awful enough to come out and vote against. I’m sure there were some young (aka basically non-voters) who could have been inspired if Dennis Kucinich had been the nominee. But that would have significantly increased the number of Bush voters who came out to vote against Krazy Kucinich.

Convincing any person who even marginally identifies as a Democrat to come out a vote against Trump should not be hard at all.

I think the trick is to convince the many Republican who held their nose and who voted for Trump in 2016 because he was better than Hillary to stay home. Ideally somebody that Joe Biden would characterize as
“I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy” I.e.don’t nominate somebody scary.

Right now that’s only Bernie and Marianne Williamson, but my sister told me that Elizabeth Warren reminds her of Hillary so that’s not a good comparison.

Edit Bill Maher just said it better than I ever could.

4356
4357

That was a very powerful video by Pete. I think for the first time I felt the Pete Mojo.