4419

If Trump wins again I do not believe that the words ‘free’ and ‘democracy’ will even have any meaning.

4420

I believe the country is finished if Trump is reelected. And I do not say that frivolously.

4421

Here’s my nightmare scenario:

It’s clear to me that members of the GOP are aligned with Putin. Even if not necessarily directly in his pocket, they clearly are aligned. One aspect of this is the GOP’s complete refusal to do ANYTHING to secure and safeguard our elections, despite protestations of our intelligence community that Russia (and likely other foreign actors) are absolutely attempting to interfere. Then you also get the occasional suspicious story of a Russian oligarch investing in a company that produces voting machines.

So through the ignorance and bigotry of American voters and with the aid of Russia, Trump wins re-election. There is suspicion about the results, as some things don’t add up. In an attempt to further destabilize the US, Russia doesn’t leave it there: they manipulate some vote counts in counties that Trump doesn’t need to win re-election, like in securely red or blue states. They manipulate the vote totals to show blatant “voter fraud”, like a Democratic candidate winning 90% of the vote in a district where that shouldn’t be possible. Similar to how “Fake News” meaning changed from the Russian disinformation campaigns into a Trump rant about the Mueller investigation and any unfavorable media he receives, people in the nation will raise the alarm about voter fraud only for Trump and right-wing media to run story after story about these districts that went heavily Democratic. Everyone is talking about “Voter Fraud”, but it morphs into how Democrats were the ones doing it.

At that point, political opponents start going to jail. The last barriers to authoritarianism start to crumble and the US ceases to be a true democracy, wracked by civil unrest and unable to project influence around the globe and allowing the likes of Russia and China to expand their spheres of influence.

There, that’s my nightmare scenario. That’s not a prediction, but I do worry about elements of that happening.

4422

Not to be ol’ Machiavelli about it, but if I were O’Rourke I’d use this moment to get out of the Presidential race. His timing for getting out will be as important to how useful he will be to the Democratic / progressives as it was for getting in.

His only base is in Texas, and the Texas GOP looks weaker than it has in decades, shaken by national scandals and decades of taking Texas for granted.

4423

Plenty of people.
“I’ll never vote for Biden/Sanders/whoever they don’t like!”

4424

If Beto couldn’t beat Ted Cruz what chance does he have?

Maybe it’s good enough for him to run just to draw all the GOP resources he can to protect Texas but he won’t win.

He won’t get ads as awesome as this at least:

4425

The shooting have made the GOP weaker than they’ve been since he ran - Trump isn’t helping at all either.

El Paso is his hometown so it makes sense for him to take a detour here.

At the same time we’re starting to look at recession indicators.

At the same time the price of oil is collapsing, and doesn’t look like it is in any hurry to recover. The oil guys have their money and aren’t (in the near term) going to chase good money after bad right now. Scare them with a hugely expensive Senate campaign that they’re going to have to fund and they’re more likely to fly to New Zealand for a few years and enjoy the sheep.

If O’Rourke chicken-shits around and tries to be more Texan than Texas, yea, there is no point. He has an opportunity, but it’s one he has to as much make as ride. But… apparently, he doesn’t like using political analysts so if he doesn’t have that gut instinct there’s no one else to tell him so.

4426

I don’t have numbers to back it up, but just gut feel as a Texan, O’Rourke would have a shot at Cornyn.

Cornyn is every bit the embodiment of evil Cruz is, and more dangerous, but lacks the name recognition and Hispanic last name that got Cruz over the hump. I’d like to see Beto pivot at this point.

4427

Thanks. “Everything old is new again.”

I know. But we’re all presumably sentient beings with free will. There is no ambiguity left - we’ve crossed the moral event horizon.

4428

Voter turnout in Texas is abysmal. How much this is due to voter ID laws and the like I don’t know. Beto got as close as any Democrat to winning a state wide election in decades in an off year election. A national election year will have higher turn out numbers. He’s already got the money, name recognition and organization he didn’t have against Cruz.


https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/70-92.shtml

4429

Be very, very suspicious of such stuff.

I am sure that some real people say things like that in the heat of the moment, but we are going to see a lot of forum posts and social media stuff along those lines over the next year, and it is going to be heavily enemy political operatives, trying to create a bandwagon effect.

Look at it from the perspective of professional politicos working for the Republican Party:

  • Their president consistently polls well below 50% approval. And if he loses every state where he polls <50% approval he is going to lose.
  • Yet, he won the Electoral College vote in '16 with not so very different approval numbers.
  • That victory depended on several different things, but the one over which they had the most agency, and thus the one they are most likely to take as a lesson going forward, was that modern media can be used to turn Dems against each other. Mostly through unattributable, anonymous posts. But also through mainstream media, which needs a good foodfight and cannot resist amplifying this stuff.
  • Given that no Dem presidential candidate has any chance of being the first choice of most Dems, that means whoever wins can be portrayed as “other” and “illegitimate” – especially since so many people have a child-like view of politics and consider normal political strategy to be dirty and illegitimate. Such that the winner will 100%-for-sure have used some political tricks, which when uncovered, can be used to induce other Dems to stay home or vote for some 3rd party in self-defeating protest.

Ironically, this stuff works much, much better on the younger, better educated, more idealistic Democrats than it does on the rest of the Dem tent. So it is people such as the posters here who most need to be on the lookout for it, and call it out when you see it.

That’s probably the second most effective thing we can do as individuals, behind sending money to Senatorial candidates. And for those focused just on getting rid of Trump, regardless of what a Dem president would be able to accomplish, this would rate #1.

4430

NH poll. Biden/undecided/Sanders/Warren. Warren leads 2nd choice, over half may change their mind. I don’t know that winning NH actually means anything unless someone totally unexpected wins. IMO SC is going to be the real test.

Leading issues are health care (by a wide margin) followed by climate change. Waay down the list is getting rid of trump, which is really surprising. My theory is that white, middle class voters don’t feel materially or directly impacted by trump and since most voters tend to rate issues on how it impacts their daily lives I guess it’s easy enough to tune out politics.

4431

If someone asked me if one of my priorities was “Getting rid of Trump”, I would think, “Getting rid of Trump, Miller, McConnell, Nunes, Bolton, etc etc” and then I’d prioritize health care and the climate emergency, because addressing those implies that the whole shitbag full of asshats would be gone.

4432

Biden and Undecided are within a percentage point of each other at 20%, so effectively it’s anyone’s race.

I’m not surprised that getting rid of Trump is so low on the list, since there’s no Dem running on a platform of keeping him around! Every candidate would get rid of Trump if elected, so it doesn’t really distinguish one candidate from the other.

4433

Yeah, to me the top priority is getting rid of Trump, because if that somehow fails, EVERYTHING ELSE fails.

4434

Trump sues California over the new law requiring presidential candidates to submit tax returns to appear on the ballot. Not surprising, but not likely to go anywhere legally. (The stated reason - Trump claims his first amendment rights are being violated - is absurd. Furthermore, states have had zillions of different ballot requirements for years, and there’s no requirement in the Constitution that states use any particular process to name their electors. They could pick names out of a hat if they wanted to.)

4435

I think state wars over who will appear on the ballot is… not a good idea.

4436

If South Carolina is the test, Biden wins easily. Older Black voters are usually the most locked-in and have different takes on the issues- they tend to be very conservative (by Dem standards)

I don’t see the progressive bloc unifying behind any one candidate- though it’s mostly a Warren/Bernie race, as Harris has disqualified herself with many in that bloc.

There’s not a lot of difference between younger Black voters and younger white voters. There’s solidarity there, just not the numbers.

4437

I think there will be more, just maybe not fair ones. One of the best ways to dismantle a republic is to hollow it out from within while preserving its external forms. See Augustus, or Putin.

4438

That’s true, but I also think they understandably just want trump gone - and, simply, they have more at stake.

Dave Weigal spends a lot of time in Iowa. Knows the candidates, knows the voters, travels around the state with them to all those odd IA events.

Given the near-obsession the media has had with the “white working class voter” it’s no mystery why people tend to think that. (Odd that a lesbian who supports M4A and wanted to impeach Cheney wins easily in WI) When asked who has the best chance of beating trump, 65% of Democrats answer Biden.