I think I will volunteer again this year, regardless of the nominee. Just a day or so to help out in PA.
It feels less hopeless to volunteer for Senate or Presidential candidates in my area, since all the votes in PA count. Local and house elections always make me feel a bit more depressed.
A new Iowa poll shows a big uptick for a left-leaning candidate from the Northeast.
Biden in the lead (28%, no change since April.) Warren pulls into second (19%, up 7%) and Bernie falls to single digits in a statistical tie for third with Harris.
The guts of the poll are illuminating if you’re interested in how question choice, phrasing, and reporting can affect the political narrative. Someone at Monmouth really wants it to be Biden, so “Most voters feel that only a few contenders out of the 24-candidate field really have what it takes to beat the incumbent” and “Among those who feel only one or two candidates have a shot, 41% currently support Biden.” Though if they had chosen to, they could be saying, “67% of Iowa Dems think there are 3 or more candidates who could defeat Trump.”
FWIW a lot of people on that tweet thread who are on her political email list appear to be disputing this interpretation.
Well, they’re just saying they didn’t get an email. That doesn’t mean someone else didn’t get an email.
Also, too: Joe’s deft gaffe touch is heating up! Poor boys are just as smart as white boys, and Margaret Thatcher was apparently shocked by Trump’s comments after Charlottesville.
Timex
4506
A lot of those people on that thread are bots.
This is in large part wishful thinking, as approval ratings don’t map to votes so easily - in 2016, after all, Utah very much didn’t approve of Trump, but still voted for Trump far more than Clinton (McMullin, an independent, got 21% of the vote.) And it beggars belief to think a Dem could win Georgia and Florida and Texas.
But hey, it’s gonna be great to see Donnie have to contest all those places.
Matt_W
4509
OTOH, if a Dem challenger gets all the deep blue states plus Minnesota, Michigan, OR North Carolina, they win. What’s hard for me to believe is that Minnesota is less blue than Wisconsin or Virginia or Pennsylvania.
We Northern Virginia denizens (where a big part of the state lives) really, really, really hate Trump.
Matt_W
4511
Yeah, you’re right, and in 2016 Virginia was solidly for Hillary to the tune of 5%, while MN just scraped by at 1.5%. I guess I’ve had trouble adjusting to the realization in the past 10 years that Virginia is a fairly blue state.
Not to excuse Biden’s gaffe, but I love how the right has latched onto that today like he said something overtly racist rather then just flubbing what was in essence a solidly non-racist sentiment that under-privileged children can be just as successful as privileged ones if given the opportunities to thrive.
Meanwhile the GOP literally has closed door meetings discussing how white people will be a minority in America in another 20 years, so what additional political and social fuckery can they devise to keep them from losing their grip on power and wealth.
More Harry:
I kind of agree with this: we’re either in a post-gaffe society…or at least in one where if gaffes are baked into your brand (as they seem to be with Biden, and were with W and with Trump), they really don’t matter much.
I’m sure it was an ‘honest’ mistake, not evidence of racist intent, but:
- He will do this every single day until next November, which isn’t good, and;
- If you fumble and juxtapose ‘poor’ with ‘white’ as contrasts, that shit is totally in your brain, a part of your view of the world, and even if you are consciously working to overcome that — as I believe Joe is — it is still in your brain.
You are correct on both counts, but he’s still way better than Trump. I’d love an alternative from the Democratic party, someone younger and a little more in touch with the current social climate and concerns of the party base, but I suspect Biden is who we will get in the end.
It just annoys me that mainstream media was carrying this story this morning and treating the gaffe as if it were an intentional slight. Donald Trump is a racist who literally had people chanting “Send them back!” at a campaign rally, and Biden accidentally says “white” instead of “wealthy” when trying to make a point about leveling the playing field for everyone, and the media is doing their best “Both Sides!” shuffle. It shows that the media has learned nothing from the past 3 years.
We really need to see this with clearer eyes.
The media is just a bunch of businesses, corporations. With a fiduciary responsibility to their investors. They are in competition with each other, and, always, with what kind of financial returns someone else could achieve with their business.
Some position themselves as conservatives and hire conservatives and give conservative customers what they want. Some as liberals. Some as “fair and unbiased.”
And some of the ones packaged for liberal audiences might desire that we think they are “on our side against Trump.” And since we all see these things as personal, and we see a liberal person talking on their program, we take this to heart and think “the media is out for what we are out for, and they ought to learn what works.”
But what works is what works financially, and that tends to be food fights and high controversy. Which is why the media is going to be an enormous problem for us during the coming 15 months. They do NOT want the Dems to settle peacefully on a candidate, and they do not want a campaign that eschews cultural anger for substantive discussion, and they do not want a runaway contest.
The media has learned a lot over the past few years – namely that contemporary politics are a gold mine, and they are not in the business of abandoning gold mines.
Add 185 more “ways” please, or I shall demand pistols at dawn for your impugning of Mr. Biden’s character!
Almost everyone in the primary is way better than Trump, but I agree we are likely to end up with Biden. I’ll vote for him if so.
