Alstein
5004
I think it’s the only way we get Americans weaned onto single payer, and that is by having a public option that makes Americans not want their corporate greed insurance.
Show them there’s something better. (well for 95% of Amercans , and I’m ok with the other 5% having private insurance)
YouGov with a couple of early state polls that look brilliant for Sanders (and Warren), less so for Biden in Iowa and New Hampshire. The obvious point to make: if the thing that’s driving Biden’s national popularity is that ever-nebulous “electability” thing, if he loses in Iowa and New Hampshire out of the gate, well…?
Also, Weigel spilling some truth about why Harris has been such and up and down but ultimately blah candidate so far:
Of the 5 climate townhalls I listened to I thought Harris, did the worse. I got interested in her after she won the first debate. Part of my my problem is that she does say yes to things, when in heart you can tell she wants to say no. Like on the townhalls, with banning plastic straws, or meat. There are ways to finesse those issues.
Biden still polls with large leads over the field in battleground states which IMO largely contributes to that electability narrative. Both IA and NH Democratic voters skew white/educated/liberal, which is in the Warren wheelhouse (the results for independent voters, who can vote in the Dem primary in NH will be interesting though.) Biden can I think afford to come in 2nd or 3rd in both those states, but he has to win SC.
Never say never, but I don’t think Buttigieg, Booker or Harris can break through. The way it’s looking, Warren wins IA and NV, Sanders wins NH and Biden takes SC. That will set up Super Tuesday as a ‘must win’ for Warren/Sanders in CA as Biden will probably take the majority of the southern states.
As as aside, NH held their Democratic convention Saturday. Really looks like Warren is ‘winning’ the enthusiasm battle, but Sanders had that in 2016 and we saw where that got him.
Good analysis, but I just don’t think most voters are paying attention, too many candidates and the actual voting is too far away. Although, I could be wrong about early state primary voters.
One thing that almost happens in the the first 3 primaries, is there is a dramatic surprise a front-runner does badly or a dark-horse wins or comes in a close 2nd.
I’m confused do they think Tulsi is Republican or that she sounds like one?
I hope she stops her campaign soon, it is bit embarrassing for the state.
CraigM
5011
More that it seems she is owned by the same masters.
Alstein
5013
Which state- she’s being propped up by the Russians. I expect her to end up running as the Green Party nominee at this rate.
She is from Hawaii, and for a while was an asset here.
Alstein
5015
Meant more where her true loyalties were. Lets just say despite her military status,she has to know she’s getting Russian influence in her campaign.
Strollen
5016
I think it is very likely that Russians are helping her. But in my experience, Da Nile isn’t just a river in Africa it is important coping mechanism.
Tulsi is hardly the first soldier to go to combat and then decide that US is on the wrong side.
HumanTon
5017
I don’t think I believe it - but just imagine if it turns out to be true:
KevinC
5018
I don’t believe Texas will flip blue, especially once the Democrats have their nominee and the propaganda arm of the Republican party can get to work demonizing one person.
Still, if the Republicans have to play a little defense in Texas that’s good news for Democrats.
Eh.
I was explaining this to my daughter just last night – all the excitement and national focus is on the Democratic horse race right now:
Who will make the cut for the next debate?
Who is getting closer to Biden?
Is Bernie still #2 or has Warren caught him yet?
Who is campaigning in which state and what fried food were they eating?
So when someone polls random schnooks in Texas, sure they’re going to be more excited about the Democrats. But wait until there is a GOP convention with Trump doing three-hour speeches and Fox News personalities juggling puppies or whatever. Wait until there are TV and Facebook ads 24/7. Wait until there are debates with Trump participating.
tl;dr: Polls like that are meaningless. Or to put it another way:
Banzai
5020
Hillary lost by 9 points in 2016 and at least some people have paid attention since then, as the 2018 results show. I don’t know that texas will go blue, but any of the frontrunners are going to do better than hillary did, and maybe well enough for it to be close.
JoshL
5021
Remember how Comey dropped his October surprise that Hillary was under investigation? Even though Trump was also under investigation, yet he failed to mention that? And that contributed significantly to Hillary losing? And Comey fucking hates Trump?
What do you think Barr is going to do?
