Within the Democratic party, the moderate/conservative vote is with white voters over the age of 50 and African American voters (anyone know which issues and/or policies black voters are more conservative on?) In 2016 there was a significant age gap between Sanders and Clinton (in that Sanders had a huge lead with voters <29), but that wasn’t nearly enough to overcome Clinton’s advantage in the South.
The party has since moved left (thanks, Bernie!) and there’s also now significant anger (rage?) against trump that crosses idealogical lines. I’m just not seeing the appeal of reaching out to Republicans especially since we just tried that and we know it doesnt’ work. However, Klobuchar does have the advantage in that corporate media likes her (or her type of candicacy) so there’s that.
This time around I think Harris is going to be a strong bridge candidate between the two wings. She also has the advantage of not being seen as a “Washington insider,” something voters apparently don’t like. I really think she’s going to be hard to beat (famous last words!)
And a point of anecdata - Harris held a town hall in Portsmouth (NH) on Monday (was going to go but work conflicted) and saw a clip of a huge line waiting to get in. That’s really surprising given how early we are in the process
Heh. That’s actually pretty solid data. Unless there were mitigating circumstances (free beer offered, venue not allowing anyone in, etc.) crowds at a town hall meeting is useful.
As is, say, someone at a restaurant really needing some ranch dressing and a candidate being in the way.
"Thank you for coming, my fiscal plan revolves around three pillars. The first of which - "
“Hey, sorry, I just want to get to that condiment area you’re standing in front of.”
I mean, goofy stuff like that happens during the long primary season. Your best bet is to just own it as a candidate and laugh along with everyone else.
Gillibrand has plenty of policy reasons to vote for someone else besides her, but personality wise, she seems like a very likeable, relate-able and self-effacing person.
I kinda like Gilibrand. She’s less conservative now than when she first got elected. She’s had a notable turnaround on immigration (previously she was well to the right of the party) and gun policy (once earned an A from NRA.) Nothing about climate change though in the piece linked below.
She has since said she’s “embarrassed” by her previous stance, and told CNN, “I did not think about suffering in other people’s lives… I listened and I realized that things I had said were wrong. I was not caring about others.” Now, she is calling to abolish ICE, and she co-sponsored the DREAM Act.
Hard to say. People’s views can change and evolve over time (at least, I hope so.) Is it solely because she wanted to run? I guess so for the cynical, but to me at least those shifts sound credible.
At the age of 50, after a long & successful law and political career, how do you suddenly and authentically go from being someone quite strongly anti-illegal immigrant to someone calling for the abolition of ICE? I can’t find any mention of some sort of event that caused such a radical shift.
According to her wiki, she made Senior Associate at her old law firm by choosing to defend Philip Morris in a series of long running cases. That suggests someone who’s more than a little mercenary and pragmatic, rather than an idealist. Which is fine (and effective!), but I don’t know how someone like that goes up against Trump and wins.
Bernie is beloved precisely because he is so authentic, and the shine has come off Warren a little because she no longer seems quite as much.
Gillibrand used to represent a moderate district in upstate NY, and it’s reasonable that her views were in line with her constituents. She’s been more liberal since becoming a Senator. As for the representing Philip Morris as a junior associate, that’s not at all surprising. I worked at another firm in NY that represented a different tobacco company, and they also gave us a choice to opt out of that team. As a junior associate, however, you do not freaking say no to a senior partner who asks you to join him. Not if you want your career to go anywhere.
I mentioned this up thread a bit but, to add to your anecdata, I’m over on the Western side of New Hampshire and Harris definitely seems to be generating the most buzz and enthusiasm amongst the progressives I know.
