5247

North Carolina is definitely within reach. The problem in NC is that the state’s been mega-politicized due to the past 10 years, so folks are kinda locked in.

That said, new maps for the state legislature, unpopular senator up for re-election, a popular governor, and Trump should really ramp up enthusiasm.

Obama did win NC in 2008. It’s doable.

I think the way you win working-class whites is to offer benefits to working-class whites. Whether it offers it to minorities as well is irrelevant, as long as they don’t feel like it’s designed to offer then more. It has to be “color-blind”, and “helping the working man” (Even if said working man has been unemployed for years due to opoids)

The problem is the way you win the Dem primary is through the South, and that means doing the exact opposite of the above.

I also think young voters are an untapped demographic as well, they’re gaining a lot of political awareness out of desperation, but they need something to believe in.

I’d also say the 7% 3rd-party vote, a 3rd-party vote is a bust vote for the most part. If you’ve got a high 3rd-party vote, it means folks who normally vote R or D decided to hell with both of them, though they voted in lower ballot races. That’s an indictment of the candidate (or most likely in 2016, both).

I do agree with your overall analysis- and that is the easiest way to victory for the Dems. The only thing I disagree with is NC not really being in play. It’s definitely in play, though I expect NC to end up a split decision like it was in 2016. Biden would massively help the odds in NC.

5248

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Joey, have you ever been…in a Turkish Prison?

5249

Invoking their names isn’t incontrovertible proof for the “white working class” pablum.

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.6% increase over 2012 isn’t evidence that turnout wasn’t a problem. What happened to black voter turnout?

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Let’s just ignore that or hand wave it away because reasons.

Now start googling academic analysis of the 2016 election and the role that fearing loss of white status played in motivating trump voters.

But, sure, let’s just appeal to bigots and racists to secure a win instead of figuring out why the much larger pool of non-voters chose to stay home.

5250

I hope it doesn’t mean “don’t nominate a woman”. I also hope we find out this election.

5251

The thing is, the two most successful and popular government programs are Medicare and Social Security, and they are both socialism, at least as ‘socialism’ is defined in our country. You ought to be able to win a lot of votes on a platform to expand both those programs.

5252

This stuff from Pew suggests that black voter turnout did decline significantly in 2016.

I don’t think this is because of some “bernie or bust” effect though. I think they just didn’t care as much about voting for a white woman as they did about voting for a black man. I doubt those voters would have supported someone like bernie, or warren, either.

5253

I’m sorry the numbers hurt your feelings. But I specifically DIDN’T say this or imply it, and in fact it was something I went specically out of my way to carefully point out didn’t need to be a thing at all. And yet you still put inference and meaning into my words that specifically wasn’t there, either because you felt the need to misrepresent what I typed, or…just because, I guess. Maybe that’s something you like doing?

At any rate, I think I’m out of things I’m willing to discuss with you for a while.

5254

I think I should’ve been more clear, and that’s my fault. Sorry!

2012 and 2008 both created huge upward spikes in African American vote. So yeah, in 2016, those numbers did drop to pre-Obama levels.

So, if you’re Robby Mook and you’re projecting your turnout models through September and October of 2016, you know that. (He did know that, apparently). It’s easy to project that, because when Obama wasn’t on the ballot in the 2010 and 2014 midterms, African American vote turnout fell away pretty sharply too.

And thus I do think it is reasonable to assume that Team Clinton planned to see 59-60% black voter turnout rather than 65% during the Obama elections. They expected that. What they didn’t see was that although the percentage of white voters as a total of the electorate was dropping, the percentage of white voters who cast ballots in 2016 would actually stay flat, if not slightly gain on the margins. That suggests that holy shit did white voters show up. And although there’s a pretty good distribution of those white voters across a variety of demographic lines – education, income level, gender, religious background – by and large most of those who did show up in the greatest numbers were from demographic populations who tended to favor Trump.

And so what won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin for Trump wasn’t low black voter turnout to expectations, which is what I should’ve said, and that’s my bad. Black voter turnout was about what was expected, pretty much. What carried Trump was that his vote margins in white exurbs and rural areas with decent-sized voter populations absolutely swamped the boat in ways that Mook and Clinton and company didn’t foresee.

And it’ll be the task of the eventual nominee – whomever that is – to at least hold up the floor with these white voters in 2020.

5255

I agree, and you’re right. The problem is, you’ve got to overcome the noise machine that coordinates with Fox and Friends and a sitting President who’s going to call those things “socialism” as a pejorative term, and then tie it to Hitler and Stalin because both of those dictators used the term “socialism” very, very loosely and far outside its typical definition to empower their authoritarian regimes.

It’s something that whomever the nominee is – whether that’s Warren, Sanders, or Biden – will have to take head on. It’s probably an easier sell for Biden, but I’m not sure he has the energy or clarity of thought to do it. It’s probably a tougher sell for Warren and Sanders, but Warren in particular seems really able to connect and make a good case.

5256

How do they do this? It’s not just messaging, it’s penetration. If those persuadable voters are mostly Fox News watchers, it doesn’t matter how good Biden’s or Warren’s messaging is; they’re not gonna be on TV in front of those voters to make their case. This strikes me as the principle difficulty here.

Also, too, if all dozen or so Jill Stein voters could have been persuaded to vote for Clinton, she’d be the President. I understand we’d rather not win swing states by razor margins, but if the margins are close, there is actually something to be said for energizing the base.

5257

That’s the question, isn’t it.

It’s probably some combination of both saturation AND focusing on micro community needs in places like western PA and nothern Wisconsin and Michigan. It’s going to be focusing on how Trump’s terrible trade war nonsense and tariffs have affected agriculture and manufacturing. It’s going to be crafting a message that may bounce off 70 of every 100 people who hear it so you can get 30 who take it in and make a decision on it.

There are two somethings to be said for energizing the base.

  1. Democrats have to do that.
  2. By itself, it won’t be enough to win, based on 2012 and 2016.
5258

That’s good info and clarification, Trigger.

5259

As @triggercut has shown, it is no surprise that African -Americans showed up to vote for a charismatic black man running for president. How much of that increase is due to his charisma vs the color of his skin, I don’t know, but clearly the combo was great. The contrast between Obama and Clinton stylistically couldn’t be more dramatic. I think both Sen. Harris and Booker are fairly charismatic, but as of now that doesn’t seem to translate into African-American support.

I know the conventional wisdom on here is that all Trump voters are racist. Which I find baffling considering that number of folks voted for Obama once or twice and then voted for Trump. To me a much simpler explanation is that Trump was just a hell of a lot more fun to watch on TV than Clinton. (I’ve been watching the Netflix show GLOW about woman wrestlers and Trump is like the villain in wrestling).

5260

At a first approximation, no one watches Cable news. Late night and social media is far more important

Edit: Arg can’t get the chart to embed properly…
Here is the link https://www.statista.com/statistics/373814/cable-news-network-viewership-usa/

It shows Fox news on top with 2.5 million viewer for a country with 330 million that under 1%.

5261

This is the right call, unfortunately. The Constitution is quite clear about what the requirements are to run for President, and opening it up for every state to have a different requirement would be a mess.

5262

Yep, I agree. Much as I’d like to see him forced to release them, this ain’t it.

5263

What? The Constitution just says you have to be 35 and born here. That doesn’t mean every 35-year old who was born here gets to be on the ballot. I’m not on the ballot.

5264

Plenty of states let you get on the Presidential ballot with as few as 1,000 signatures as an independent. Very few require more than 25,000 signatures. Get cracking you still have time.

5265

Which, along with fees requires in some states, are requirements not listed in the Constitution.

5266

Sounds like the signature requirement is pretty damn unconstitutional.