5549

This is precisely the same argument that anti-affirmative action crusaders make. And the answer is the same: cultural context, historical redress, non-level playing field, etc etc. It’s perfectly appropriate to consider race when selecting a VP candidate. After all, 100% of VPs and VP nominees up to the present have been white.

5550

I guess it depends on how you define “quick” nomination.

Clinton conceded to Obama in June 2008, after the last primary. If that still counts as quick, then Sanders has plenty of time left.

5551

Clinton definitely hung on too long. She was all but mathematically eliminated in March, and then actually mathematically eliminated in April, then spent 6 more weeks continuing her efforts to re-litigate the Florida and Michigan primaries. She did at least concede before the convention, but in any other year besides 2008 and against someone other than McCain, who knows what that might have cost Obama?

If Sanders thinks he’s out, whether for reasons of math or health, he should get out sooner rather than later. That goes for all of them, really.

5552

But you don’t really have evidence that this is true. You cite '84 and '52, but we’re a long way from a brokered or nearly-brokered convention, and there have been uncertain outcomes heading into conventions in other years too ('68 for both sides, '72 DNC, '76 RNC). If you throw out '68, the side with the uncertain outcome at convention time is 0-3 in the primary era (the rules were different in '52 and Ike was also the result of a brokered convention), a small sample, but it argues that having the outcome uncertain at the time of the convention is not a good sign.

Looking at recent contests that did wrap up with the voting, though, Trump had a harder nomination fight than Hillary (though you could argue this was a tie - Bernie shut down most of his campaign about a week before Cruz did, a lot of people thought it was unfair that Hillary was going to get all the superdelegate support and were campaigning to change that, but Cruz also asked people not to vote for Trump in his speech at the convention). Obama had a harder fight than McCain, Bush had a harder one that Gore, and Dukakis had a harder one than Bush Sr. So the side with the harder fight is 3-1 or at worst 2-2. If you look at challengers to an incumbent president, Bill Clinton didn’t clinch until he won California on June 2nd, Dole had no challengers by March, Kerry clinched the win on March 11, and Romney was proclaimed the winner on April 25th. So the person with the hardest fight was also the one who won.

5553

I’m not trying to prove a case. It just strikes me that, generally speaking, if a candidate knows they won’t or shouldn’t win, they should stop being a candidate. Stop using up oxygen. Stop diverting support from others. Stop trying to own news cycles. Stop sucking up money to no purpose; it isn’t an infinite resource.

5554

Campaigns push agendas and agendas still matter. For some candidates, the agenda is getting a VP nod or a cabinet position, for others it’s building a profile and organization for a future run, for others it’s pushing ideological positions. This work isn’t wasted unless it’s used to attack an opponent you mostly agree with purely to gain some ground in the polls at their expense.

If Bernie is using his money to building an organization that can help with turnout in Nov, that’s worthwhile. If he’s using it to push medicare for all and wealth taxes with ads, that’s worthwhile. Even if all he’s doing is marshaling his own support while he negotiates with the other candidates to make sure the platform is as favor to his agenda as possible, that’s worthwhile (to those supporting him).

Also, money is an infinite resource.

5555

Really interesting poll of North Carolina by PPP:

5556

‘If’ is doing a lot of work for you in this paragraph.

It isn’t. The kind of working-class people who are going to donate to a left-wing political campaign have a limited budget with which to do it. Money they give to one candidate in a primary campaign isn’t going to be available in a general election campaign.

5557
5558
5559

Might be time to start conceptualizing Liz as the front-runner. Which I’m all good with.

5560

Choo choo EWarren train’s a comin’!

Lol

5561

I am ok with this as well.

5562

With her incredible Ground Game advantage and Biden’s laissez faire attitude toward the Primary, it has been obvious for awhile.

5563

Watching Mayor Pete on the CNN town hall reminds me of those feel good moments, I used to get after watching President Bartlett, on West Wing I learned things about HIV and being gay in the US from watching his performance, I generally just felt better about the country.

5564

I ♥️ the Buttiman, he’s still my favorite candidate.

Edit: but Warren is a close second. Check out her response here hahaha 👉

5565

I just came here to post that. She KILLED that answer. The extended version adds a lot of flavor to that answer and allows Warren to position her statement in terms of her religious upbringing, which is great, too.

5566

Seriously, what a great response. Nailed it. Imagine having her as President instead of the rapey manchild we have now.

5567

Thanks for that. She is the real deal.

5568

At this point I’m ready to get on the Warren/Abrams or Warren/Booker train. Let’s do this!