Oghier
5689
I think we all know this. But the key to the next election is who wins the dozen or so swing states that decide things. Running up the popular vote margin in California or NY doesn’t matter. It should matter, but it doesn’t.
The reason people worry about Warren and Sanders winning is that they may be too far left to win PA, FL, CO, AZ, MI, WI… etc. I’m not saying that is correct. I have not seen swing state polling. But that is the concern, and it’s a legitimate one.
Alstein
5690
We can’t work with the Republicans, we’re going to have to destroy Trumpism utterly to save this country.
Even if that means terrible times.
Oghier
5693
I agree, but I think it might go farther. The GOP’s scorched earth, “dems are the enemies of the people” approach predates Trump. The entire party has rejected democracy and compromise as governing principles, and that has been decades in the making. It makes a two-party system unworkable.
Fuck if I know how to fix that.
Dejin
5694
This is Bull. A lot of us who have major concerns about Warren being too far left to win are Democrats. I’ve been voting since the 80s and can’t ever recollect voting for a Republican, I contributed to both the Obama campaigns as well as Hillary’s campaign. Nominating Warren or Sanders is a huge risk.
An election run on Trumpism vs. Normalcy is very easy to win. An election on Trump vs. Socialism is a much harder pull. Maybe we’ll win it, but there’s a very, very strong chance we’ll lose. When I see candidates running around saying “we’re going to get rid of your insurance” or saying they want to decriminalize border crossings, I see a candidate that’s more interesting in pleasing a vocal far left ideology than they are in winning an election. We need to win in Pennsylvania, we need to win back the Rust Belt. These are policies that make the left wing of the party happy but not policies that the bulk of America supports.
The correct formulation on Medicare is Buttigieg’s “We’re going to make Medicare so damn good people will want to leave their insurance for it” — that gets us where we want to go without scaring over half of America. The correct formulation on ICE is, immigration agents have badly abused their power and we’re going to do a major house cleaning or maybe we’re going to replace ICE with a new agency that will do a better job controlling the border. It is not “we’re going to decriminalize border crossings.”
We cannot lose this election. If we were running against Romney, I might be inclined to roll the dice with Warren and see what happens. But a Trump win will cement White Nationalism’s place in American society. It will normalize corruption in our government. We need to overwhelm Trumpism and put it back in the closet where it belongs, the best way to do that is to nominate a candidate that all Americans can support, and that candidate is not Warren or Sanders. Warren may run up the numbers in California and New York, but that still loses the election unless we can regain the middle states like Pennsylvania. Warren’s talk about completely reordering society scares the crap out of people. It’s super easy to demonize, and a some of it polls badly to start with.
JoshL
5695
Maybe the Democrats should just nominate Trump. Then they’re guaranteed to win!
Menzo
5696
So you’re saying the best way to excite Democrats is to vote the 80-year-old white guy in who keeps saying “whoa whoa, let’s not move TOO fast now. We gotta find a way to pay for all that!”?
For what it’s worth, I agree that Mayor Pete has it right. But the reality is that neither Medicare for All nor Medicare for Everyone Who Wants It is going to pass through a Republican Senate. Neither will really any Democratic legislation no matter who is President.
So shouldn’t we elect the person who at least has his or her head in the stars so we don’t start negotiating from the center?
No, the best way to do that is to put them in prison. I am 99% sure Biden will do the old “we need to move on” and that will result in the next Republican being a dictator. I’m not all that confident ANY of them will do it, but Biden almost certainly won’t.
Menzo
5698
I’d like to know what America you live in that you think this is a thing that is actually achievable. Were you around from 2008-2016? Was Obama a crazy far left socialist?
Why in the world do you think such a person exists?
Dejin
5700
I’m happy to support any candidate other than Warren, Sanders, Gabbard, or Williamson. Warren and Sanders are too far left for where America is at. Gabbard is a Russian/Syrian Stooge, and Williamson is Williamson.
It’s not even that I don’t like Warren. I don’t agree with everything about her, but I agree with a lot of her positions. But her nomination is a huge risk that I’m not prepared to take against four more years of Donald Trump.
Let’s make this election about Trump. Let’s not make this election about Socialism.
Dejin
5701
You’ll notice that the Republicans haven’t taken aim at Warren yet. They want Warrent to win the nomination. They know that winning an election against Socialism is a much easier election to win than an election that’s all about Trump.
I would love for Warren’s numbers to stay that high in the election, but that’s not very realistic.
Timex
5702
Dude, why do you think you need to “excite Democrats”?
I mean… Let’s take someone who really loves Warren.
That kind of voter… Do they need something other than stopping Trump as a reason to vote in 2020?
Wouldn’t they in fact vote for… Literally anyone? Anything? Like, a dog? A box of rocks?
It seems like if you are progressive to the degree that Warren speaks to you, then the Democratic party doesn’t need to do anything to get your vote. Because you hate Trump. Trump will get you to the voting booth.
Nesrie
5703
You are kidding right? You don’t think the Republicans have been going after the woman they named Pocahontas? Well they didn’t shoot her in the street, so yeah I guess they haven’t been “going after her.”
There is a one hundred percent chance that the Democratic nominee is going to be framed as Republicans running against socialism. It doesn’t matter who it is.
“Turn out the base” is a strategy; maybe not one you agree with it, but wiser election wonks than myself have discussed it seriously.
Timex
5706
But read the rest of my past.
Simply having Trump on the ticket is going to turn out the Democratic base.
The whole idea is that it didn’t in 2016, not enough; that is to say, turnout was left on the table.
Agree or disagree, and I don’t have the data at my fingertips to debate it, but that concept is a thing.
Timex
5708
But that’s because the Democrats had convinced themselves that they couldn’t possibly lose. We saw that here, on this forum. Remember the electoral college predictions folks were making? Remember the folks saying how insane Nate silver was for saying, “Clinton doesn’t have a 99% chance of winning.”
Fair point, although I can’t say much for the thought processes of people who think “the polls show people are going to vote for this candidate, therefore I’m not going to bother to vote for this candidate.” (I know, I know, voting is very inconvenient for some people.)
