I remember a lot of doubt and people saying we shouldn’t jump off a cliff yet… everyone running around saying the Democrats couldn’t lose, you know the media, probably made people think they didn’t need to bother to show up too.

Mayor Pete said as much during one of the debates. We may as well go all in for progressive policies, because the Republicans are going to call any Democratic position socialism.

Which is the exact reason she must set one - Congress is going to water down every policy before passing it, so your starting point needs to be the actual best solution not some pre-watered-down “best thing we might be able to pass if the other side was reasonable”

I think the notion of a single axis is at fault here (or more specifically, it is used as weapon by those looking to exploit tribalism). Warren is not “on the left” in the same sense as Marx or even Bernie. She is painted with the same brush because her opponents would prefer to run against the strawman. But her policies are designed to preserve a capitalist, market-based economy in a world where runaway inequality and increasing automation are threatening the core elements of the market (investment and labor specifically).

A wealth tax isn’t Marxism, it’s more like Feudalism, an attempt to enforce a little bit of noblesse oblige.

Breaking up Facebook isn’t Marxism, it’s Teddy Rooseveltism.

Free college isn’t Marxism it’s… the exact same as our current system of free k-12, but expanded to meet the demands of modern technology. Same for universal pre-K.

Only Medicare for All is actually a socialist approach to a sector, but the reality is that healthcare is a cost borne by all even in our current privatized system. No one calls it socialist to say that government should run the police or the military, because there are clear problems with allowing the market to decide where the troops or cops go. This is at least as true of healthcare as it is of police protection.

If Democratic voters elect a leader who isn’t elected President by the rest of the country, the problem is the Democratic voters, who voted wrong, not the rest of the country - the rest of the country voted properly, because the Democrats’ wrong voters preferred a choice that didn’t appeal to the real population.

Lol. Trump beat all the republican candidates, but only Hillary could have lost to him. And she only got the nomination because the system was rigged to keep … someone (McCain?) … from running against her. Now that the system isn’t rigged for Hillary we must… nominate Biden or we’re making the same mistake?

This is the thing people are arguing against, though, the idea that those states are centrist because they are “purple”. They aren’t centrist, they are blue collar (in the rust belt) and split between less-affluent bible-thumpers and more-affluent elitists (in the others). The way to get their votes isn’t to turn all the dials to “milquetoast”.

No it isn’t, as the Biden “corruption”, Hillary emails, and Kerry “swift boating”, show. It is very easy to drag you opponent’s so-called “Normalcy” down to cloudy doubty levels, and if that’s only thing they have, then the status quo seems safer. Elect Trump - if he was really all that bad they would have convicted him during impeachment.

Wait. So, if Warren were behind, you’d say see I’m right she can’t win. But, since she is ahead, you say…see I’m right she can’t win.

I mean, your methodology here is broken, right?

On what issues in particular? From a quick google, her main policies seem to be supported by most of the country.

A significant majority of Americans would favor a wealth tax on the nation’s 75,000 richest families to pay for a new higher education initiative put forward by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) that would make state and community colleges tuition-free and pay off most existing student loan debts, according to poll released Monday.

70 percent of Americans support ‘Medicare for all’ proposal

Poll: Majorities of both parties support Green New Deal

Poll: Majority of voters support $15 minimum wage

Poll: Two-thirds of Americans want to break up companies like Amazon and Google

Marijuana legalization is very popular

On the other hand, I see normalcy itself as a huge risk. Normalcy is what has created the conditions that led to Donald Trump. If we elect Biden, who will try to pretend it’s 2008 again, we get a repeat of the Obama years, and then we get a 2nd Donald Trump, who will have learned the lessons from the first one. I think another Republican president might end democracy permanently in the US. A Trump win in 2020 almost definitely would.

I agree with you on Buttigieg’s idea for Medicare, and that’s the tack I suspect the Dems will end up doing. I also agree with you on ICE.

Also, we could not get a Warren under a President Romney- Romney would be cruising to re-election right now due to continuing Obama’s economy, while silently slashing rights and marginalizing folks- the Beckys of the world wouldn’t be noticing. Trump gave us a once in a lifetime opportunity to fundamentally change America. We last had that in 2008, and we screwed it up- we went too moderate, and it led America to Trump.

This is not just about 2020. This is about making sure I never see another Trump in my lifetime as President. I’d rather see them in orange jumpsuits perp walked.

Personally, I do think Sanders would be a bad executive, and while I voted for him in 2016 because I thought Hillary could lose to Trump and Sanders would win, I have a better choice in 2020, and for me that choice is Warren. I’d happily vote for Bernie in a general, be ok with Beto, and tolerate the rest, business in usual in America has to change, and it’s going to take someone like a Warren who has the competence and the ideology to get it done.

I see a lot of Reagan in Warren, but a force for good not evil.

I am glad Bernie is in the race, he might scare the establishment Dems into accepting Warren more easily. This seems to be happening some, and Biden’s senility is helping.

Now, what if Trump isn’t the candidate? What if he gets impeached before hand, it the Dems are running against Mike Pence?

This relies upon Senate Republicans to be capable of performing good actions, and is, as such, on its face nonsense :P

Yeah, bit can you imagine how crazy it would drive Trump if big outfits started polling people on Pence vs Warren, or Pence vs Biden. I think that would put the screws to him.

In fact, @triggercut, has anything like that been done?

I’ve seen a few individual state polls, and right now they say Trump is a better nominee for the GOP next November than Pence. The most recent one I can remember was Emerson College asked the question earlier this month in an Ohio state-wide poll and found that both Biden and Warren would beat Pence in the state but would either lose or be close to Trump there.

Here, it’s mentioned about halfway down. And worth mentioning, even if public opinion is going to move, it takes a while.

Assumes facts not in evidence. To wit, that there is any Democratic candidate or policy that won’t be painted as baby-eating socialistic fascism* by the Party of Trump.

*Yes, I’m aware of the contradiction. Sadly, about 1/3 of the country is definitely not.

I’m assuming that some Trump supporters would not currently be supportive in a poll with Pence as a candidate, because of the obvious implications of that circumstance. He’d surely poll better if Trump were out of the way, unless he was dumb enough to look like he was supportive of removing Trump.

Interesting. Like I said, I am less interested in the results as I am in the narrative. The more groups that do that sort of polling, the more narrative turns to a Trump free election
Which isn’t likely, but I would bet my house that it would total hit a nerve with Trump and maybe drive an even bigger wedge between him and Pence.

Which might be a good thing or a bad thing.

I’m not sure a wedge - or any tool known to Man - can break the hermetic seal between Pence’s lips and Trump’s ass.

A campaign run on “normalcy” isn’t an easy win, but it is an easier case to make with the voters that Democrats want in North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio. And there’s a lot of evidence of that.

The worrisome corrollary though is that a “normalcy” campaign would need to rely on progressive Democrats being so inflamed by Trump that they’d still enthusiastically show up to vote based upon anti-Trump sentiment, even if “normalcy” is not particularly exciting or appealing as a campaign focus. It’s a fine line to have to walk.

And so but again: African American voters are never going to turn out to vote in the numbers they turned out for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. But in 2016 when HRC ran, they turned out in numbers that were only down in regards to the Obama elections, but not down by any other previous presidential election for a Democrat. And it was less how HRC performed in urban, heavily liberal/progressive areas in 2016, and more the margins she got blown out in in rural areas.

And thus all signs I’ve seend make me think tha (as of now) the winning strategy for Democrats in 2020 is still going to be managing their voter margins of defeat in rural areas. Period. That’s why Trump won in 2016.

Real talk story: remember that horrific, terrible utterly awful hour between 8:30pm ET and 9:30pm ET on election night, 2016? The early returns had come in from Florida, and they looked OK for Clinton. But then the more rural areas of the state began reporting…and the margins were just insane for Trump. And we started seeing the same in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Where, even before metro areas like Philly or Cleveland or Miami or Tampa had reported, the writing was on the wall: Clinton would not only need Obama-era turnout in those urban precincts, she’d also need Obama+ margins…and even that might not be enough.

The Democrat who is nominated is going to have to keep those rural margins down in 2020. He or she is going to have a bit of help, in that suburban America has really soured on Trump, and for the Orange One, his task is to somehow control the level of his defeats in those suburban districts. Which may not be do-able. But yeah, if the nominee is Warren or Sanders, where they’ll need to do a sell-job is in the rural areas, where they either de-stigmatize the word socialism, or blunt its effects when applied to their policy endeavors.

the last NC poll had both Biden and Warren beating Trump, Biden by a bit more (like 2%). I’m confident Warren could make up that 2% with name recognition and being a better candidate.

Warren plays well in rural areas too- that’s why she’s improved in the polls. She has a charm that plays well there.

No doubt. And I have no idea how that Emerson Poll question was worded, either. Gerald Ford didn’t exactly inspire enthusiasm among Republicans before Nixon resigned, and though Ford got a nice bump in approval right after being sworn in, he completely tanked it when he pardoned his predecessor. And yet even then GRF made it an incredibly close race by November of '76.

It’s been my impression – with absolutely NO data behind it – that Warren does indeed play better and connect more with rural voters than Sanders does.

Tulsi Gabbard proves she isn’t a Russian asset by…going on Tucker Carlson’s show.

I mean she’s not even bothering to hide what she’s doing.

Totally not backed by Russia.

Thank you for that. The whole idea that “Well, the Republican party went insane, so now the Democratic party must become the new Republican party, because only Republicans can legitimately win elections” is highest-order bullshit.

If you go to the ballot box and think to yourself, “well, on the one hand, Trump is a traitor to the country, is only looking out for himself, and will probably lead to the end of democracy and the destruction of the environment, dooming my descendants to living in a desolate post-apocalyptic hellscape, but on the other hand, the other candidate has a D after their name and might raise taxes on billionaires”, then I don’t know what to tell you.