Just read today that the current promotion rate in the Army for captain to major is 98%-- up from the normal range of 70-80% post 1992.
And yet, 58% of USMA '02 grads have left the Army, compared with 46% of the class of 2001. The normal rate for that is 30%. '03 grads will be leaving starting this July.
Factor that into your costs of the war.
The one bit of good news is that at least the graduation rate at USMA hasn’t budged, holding at the mid 70s.
What do you mean “and yet”? I would imagine that large numbers of officers leaving the military would increase the chances of an officer being promoted.
But yeah, there is a certain irony that it may end up that “Rah rah military!” Bush was far worse for the military than Clinton was.
I meant that the prospect of guaranteed O-4ness would be attractive to junior officers. I guess part of my mindset is still stuck in the era where if you didn’t make O-4, you were going to be shown the door.