MLB 2011: Under/Over Wins Pick'em

With the season just about here, this seemed like the best time for a pick’em thread.

Below are the current Vegas under/over win totals for MLB 2011. Pick 10 teams, whether you think they’ll be under/over the oddsmakers’ total, and designate 3 of them as “best” picks. At the end of the year, each correct pick gets 1 point, “best” picks get 3. That’s it!

Usually, the amusing part of this is how early in the season some of the picks go completely into the toilet. I’ll be happy if all my picks are still alive at the All-Star break.

Philadelphia Phillies 96½ - Over
Boston Red Sox 95½ - Under
New York Yankees 91½ - Over
San Francisco Giants 88½ - Under
Atlanta Braves 87½ - Over
Colorado Rockies 86½ - Under
Texas Rangers 86½ - Over
Minnesota Twins 86 - Under
Cincinnati Reds 85½ - Under
Milwaukee Brewers 85½ - Over
Chicago White Sox 84½ - Under
Tampa Bay Rays 84½ - Over
Detroit Tigers 84 - Over
Los Angeles Dodgers 84 - Under
Los Angeles Angels 83½ - Over
St Louis Cardinals 83½ - Over
Oakland Athletics 83½ - Under
Chicago Cubs 81½ - Under
Florida Marlins 81½ - Under
New York Mets 77½ - Under
Toronto Blue Jays 76½ - Over
San Diego Padres 75½ - Under
Baltimore Orioles 75½ - Under
Arizona Diamondbacks 72½ - Over
Washington Nationals 72½ - Over
Houston Astros 71½ - Under
Cleveland Indians 71½ - Over
Seattle Mariners 70½ - Under
Kansas City Royals 68½ - Over
Pittsburgh Pirates 67½ - Over

Edit (9/5): I’ve started adding bold results for teams locked into their under/over result for the year. At the end of the season I’ll add the final win totals.

Los Angeles Angels 83½ - OVER **
New York Yankees 91½ - OVER **
Minnesota Twins 86 - OVER **
San Francisco Giants 88½ - UNDER
Colorado Rockies 86½ - UNDER
Los Angeles Dodgers 84 - UNDER
Toronto Blue Jays 76½ - OVER
Texas Rangers 86½ - UNDER
Atlanta Braves 87½ - UNDER
Philadelphia Phillies 96½ - UNDER

Nice idea sluggo. This will be fun . . .

Colorado Rockies 86½ - UNDER **
Cincinnati Reds 85½ - UNDER **
Pittsburgh Pirates 67½ - OVER **
Philadelphia Phillies 96½ - UNDER
San Francisco Giants 88½ - UNDER
Tampa Bay Rays 84½ - UNDER
Los Angeles Angels 83½ - OVER
Oakland Athletics 83½ - OVER
Chicago Cubs 81½ - OVER
Arizona Diamondbacks 72½ - OVER

Good game! My picks:

Philadelphia Phillies 96½ - UNDER **
Los Angeles Angels 83½ - UNDER **
Baltimore Orioles 75½ - OVER **
Minnesota Twins 86 - UNDER
Colorado Rockies 86½ - UNDER
Cincinnati Reds 85½ - UNDER
New York Mets 77½ - OVER
San Diego Padres 75½ - OVER
Pittsburgh Pirates 67½ - OVER
Houston Astros 71½ - UNDER

So far, we agree that the Phillies and Rockies are overrated.

Neat idea.

New York Yankees 91½ - UNDER
San Francisco Giants 88½ - UNDER
Colorado Rockies 86½ - UNDER
Milwaukee Brewers 85½ - OVER***
Tampa Bay Rays 84½ - OVER
Oakland Athletics 83½ - OVER
San Diego Padres 75½ - UNDER***
Washington Nationals 72½ - OVER
Seattle Mariners 70½ - OVER
Kansas City Royals 68½ - OVER***

Boston Red Sox 95½ - OVER ***
New York Yankees 91½ - OVER
Atlanta Braves 87½ - OVER ***
Texas Rangers 86½ - UNDER
Minnesota Twins 86 - OVER
San Diego Padres 75½ - UNDER
Arizona Diamondbacks 72½ - UNDER ***
Washington Nationals 72½ - OVER
Cleveland Indians 71½ - UNDER
Seattle Mariners 70½ - OVER

Quality idea, sluggo! Keri’s post of a similar nature on Fangraphs was a fun read.

Philadelphia Phillies 96½ **UNDER
Texas Rangers 86½ **OVER
Minnesota Twins 86 **OVER
Cincinnati Reds 85½ OVER
Milwaukee Brewers 85½ OVER
Chicago White Sox 84½ OVER
Tampa Bay Rays 84½ OVER
Toronto Blue Jays 76½ OVER
Baltimore Orioles 75½ OVER
Washington Nationals 72½ OVER

Bleh, too many overs. Hope truly does spring eternal on opening day.

Philadelphia Phillies 96½ UNDER
Boston Red Sox 95½ OVER
San Francisco Giants 88½ UNDER
Cincinnati Reds 85½ UNDER
Tampa Bay Rays 84½ UNDER
Detroit Tigers 84 OVER
New York Mets 77½ OVER
San Diego Padres 75½ UNDER
Washington Nationals 72½ OVER
Baltimore Orioles 75½ OVER

Of course, I don’t know much about baseball nowadays, so this should get embarrassing as the season goes on.

Going entirely with my heart here, not my head, so make of that what you will.

Philadelphia Phillies 96½ UNDER
Boston Red Sox 95½ UNDER
Colorado Rockies 86½ OVER
Cincinnati Reds 85½ OVER
Tampa Bay Rays 84½ OVER
Detroit Tigers 84 OVER
Los Angeles Dodgers 84 UNDER
St Louis Cardinals 83½ UNDER
Chicago Cubs 81½ OVER (blew that one!)
Cleveland Indians 71½ UNDER

Phillies: Over
Everyone else: Under

The Phillies will win at least 600 games this year. They’ll get bored of winning their own games so they will win other teams’ games, causing most teams to have a negative record for the first time.

Be sure to check the MLB thread for my HRose style post after the Phillies beat the Phillies in the World Series.

I predicted you would post that.

Just make sure you have a post on your blog from two years ago predicting this.

You don’t need any REAL knowledge to play, do you???

Philadelphia Phillies 96½ UNDER
New York Yankees 91½ UNDER ***
Colorado Rockies 86½ OVER
Los Angeles Dodgers 84 OVER
Detroit Tigers 84 OVER
St Louis Cardinals 83½ OVER
Baltimore Orioles 75½ OVER***
Washington Nationals 72½ UNDER***
Cleveland Indians 71½ OVER
Pittsburgh Pirates 67½ OVER

Philadelphia Phillies 96½ UNDER
Boston Red Sox 95½ OVER
New York Yankees 91½ OVER
Chicago White Sox 84½ OVER
Tampa Bay Rays 84½ UNDER
Oakland Athletics 83½ OVER
Toronto Blue Jays 76½ UNDER
Baltimore Orioles 75½ UNDER***
Washington Nationals 72½ UNDER***
Pittsburgh Pirates 67½ UNDER***

Gotta love following three of the worst teams in all of baseball. :)

How anyone has the action on Philly at 96.5 with Utley having “no timetable” to return to action is utterly beyond me.

My feeling is that the Phillies are a team built to dominate the postseason, but the regular season is a different animal, and I think 97 wins is a lot to ask of anyone. Pitchers have up and down years, and as the Phillies are seeing today, 6 solid innings from your starter only gets you so far when you don’t score and your bullpen is average. I still fully expect them to win 90-95 games, but I’m not sold on them being a 103-win juggernaut unless their offense really clicks.

Also: bump for people who still want to play. It’s only opening day, and I’d be fine with people continuing to put picks in through the weekend in the interest of more participation.

Philadelphia Phillies 96½ UNDER ***
San Francisco Giants 88½ UNDER
Atlanta Braves 87½ OVER ***
Colorado Rockies 86½ OVER
Texas Rangers 86½ OVER ***
St Louis Cardinals 83½ UNDER
Houston Astros 71½ OVER
New York Mets 77½ UNDER
Kansas City Royals 68½ UNDER
Los Angeles Angels 83½ OVER

— Alan

Philadelphia Phillies 96½ UNDER ***
Boston Red Sox 95½ UNDER ***
San Francisco Giants 88½ UNDER***
Pittsburgh Pirates 67½ OVER
Houston Astros 71½ UNDER
Chicago White Sox 84½ UNDER
Chicago Cubs 81½ OVER
Tampa Bay Rays 84½ OVER
Colorado Rockies 86½ OVER
New York Mets 77½ UNDER

Great thread idea. I just discovered that the Aussie version of spell checker (or should it be chequer here?) doesn’t recognise Pittsburgh.

I can’t help myself but pick the Cubs for over. The heart over the head for me I guess.

Philadelphia Phillies 96½ UNDER ***
Boston Red Sox 95½ UNDER ***
San Francisco Giants 88½ UNDER***
Pittsburgh Pirates 67½ OVER
Houston Astros 71½ UNDER
Chicago White Sox 84½ UNDER
Chicago Cubs 81½ OVER
Tampa Bay Rays 84½ OVER
Colorado Rockies 86½ OVER
New York Mets 77½ UNDER

Great thread idea. I just discovered that the Ausie version of spell checker (or should it be chequer here?) doesn’t recognise Pittsburgh.

I can’t help myself but pick the Cubs for over. The heart over the head for me I guess.

Excellent!

Icehole, are you a native Aussie or transplanted? How hard is it for you to follow the MLB season?