For the Cardinals, the future is both bright–and uncertain. If that makes sense.
The core of the team isn’t going anywhere. That’s lineup guys like Matt Holliday, Yadi Molina, Allen Craig, David Freese, and Jon Jay. The bullpen became a strength during the August/September stretch; the Law Firm of Mujica, Boggs, and Motte did a fine job in locking down games after the 6th inning, and there are so many power ++ arms in the organization that some of them are going to step into starting rotation apprentice roles by doing a year or so in the bullpen.
All that said, there are questions. The middle infield is in terrible shape. Daniel Descalso simply doesn’t look like a guy who’ll hit enough to be an everyday second baseman. Rafael Furcal was already seeing a number nosedive when he went down with a season-ending elbow injury. Despite some September heroics, Pete Kozma’s ceiling is probably best expressed as “maybe good enough to be a bench guy. Maybe.” The team has to be concerned with the way Carlos Beltran’s numbers collapsed after June–although they did perk up in September.
It’s obvious that the team cannot rely on Furcal and Beltran to play more than 100 and perhaps 120 games respectively next year. They could desperately use some right-handed bat depth off the bench. Beltran’s problem is an easy fix: Matt Carpenter’s bat is legit. He can play first and Allen Craig can move to his preferred position in rightfield to spell Beltran. The fix at second may also involve Carpenter: his offseason “homework” is to learn to play second. Carpenter’s natural position is third, but he also plays the corner OF and first base. Second might not be out of the question, and the guy who’ll teach him the position this winter will be his father who happens to be one of the most respected baseball coaches and teachers in the country. If Matt Carpenter can play second base every day, that really solves that problem…but it takes away OF depth.
The rotation is also a big question mark. Right now it’s Wainwright, Westbrook, and Lynn. They figure to get 20-25 starts out of Chris Carpenter, and pray that with a full offseason of throwing he’ll regain the command he had before having a rib removed in July. Jaime Garcia is the other concern. Dr. James Andrews suggested no surgery for his ailing shoulder, and early returns on rest and rehab program for Jaime have been good. Still though, he’s a guy who got shut down twice in 2012 for rotator cuff/labrum problems.
That’s where the arms come in. Joe Kelly, Trevor Rosenthal, and Shelby Miller all did dual time in the bullpen and rotations. All three could step up to claim 1 or 2 spots in the rotation next spring, with the others moving to the bullpen.
So. John Mozeliak’s homework as I see it:
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Get a right-handed utility bat that will be useful off the bench. OF or IF, but get one. This team leans heavily to port with so many lefthanded hitters.
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Get a LOOGY. I’m not sold on Marc Rzepczynski, and given his non-use in the playoffs, I don’t think his manager is, either. This team needs a lefty arm out of the pen.
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Look for back of the rotation depth.
Finally:
The Cardinals have some answers moving quickly through their system, but I don’t know that they’ll be ready for 2012 or not.
Their three best prospects on the farm (assuming that Kelly, Rosenthal, and Miller stick with the big club next season) are Kolten Wong, who may have a shot at making the team out of spring training. He’s another lefthanded hitter–and that works against him–but he’s clearly the teams second baseman of the future. If he makes the team, that frees up Matt Carpenter to move around to his more natural positions at the corners of the infield and outfield. Next up is Carlos Martinez. When observers were marveling at the blazing gas of Joe Kelly and Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal (especially Rosenthal), the Cardinals were kind of laughing up their sleeves, because by all scouting Martinez actually grades out higher than any of those three. Martinez is starting to control his hard breaking stuff, which gives him three nasty pitches. Still, he’s probably ticketed for a full season of AAA next year, with maybe a September callup in the offing.
And then there’s Oscar Taveras. Not sure what I can say about him that hasn’t already been written by drooling scouts and analysts (or by the internet meme of him standing on third in a split squad game last spring as “Minor League Guy”). As Keith Law put it over the summer, his swing seems to rip holes in the fabric of space. He showed he’s learning both plate discipline and contact this last year at AA. He’ll likely see at least half a season in AAA make sure he’s really, really ready to see MLB hitting, and they’d also like him to continue to work some at CF so he can be used at all three OF positions.
