MLB 2018 - Hope for a 7-game WS so they'll play on Halloween

Carlos Santana signed with the Phillies, 3/$60M, with a 17.5M club option for 2021, which forces Rhys Hoskins to LF. Philly lost 96 games last season, so I don’t quite get this one.

Zack Cozart signed with the Angels for 3 years, $38M, and will move to 3B, so I guess that means the halos are done considering Moustakas.

Matt Moore off to the Rangers for some prospects and salary relief.

They could keep the prospects if they’d take Denard Span along with him, for all of me.

I don’t either. One Philly scribe says either they want four starting OFs to keep 'em fresh, or…

The other scenario is a trade that includes Herrera or Altherr or Williams — maybe along with second baseman Cesar Hernandez and a few prospects — for a young, controllable pitcher. Three major-league sources said the Phillies have inquired on just about every young starter that could be traded this winter. That includes Kansas City’s Danny Duffy, Tampa Bay’s Chris Archer and Toronto’s Marcus Stroman.

Baltimore put the brakes on any deal of Machado to the White Sox. They fear–justifiably–that the White Sox will be unlikely to be in the running for a playoff spot in 2018, and will flip Machado to the Yankees and put him back in the AL East.

They want some combination of Jordan Hicks and/or Carson Kelly from the Cardinals. Cardinals may not be willing to part with Hicks for what might be a one-and-done on Machado. Still, a boy can dream about how much improved the St. Louis offense and defense would be with Machado at third or short and Ozuna in left and Pham full time in center.

Losing Santana is big and adds another hole for Cleveland to fill this offseason (along with a few bullpen spots and an outfielder). I truly believe he would’ve taken a bit of a hometown discount but there’s no way Cleveland was going to offer anything close to what Philly did – for reference that’s the same contract that Encarnacion got which was the largest free agent contract in team history.

Interesting deal the Dodgers and Braves just pulled off. Dodgers rid themselves of Adrian Gonzalez’s contract, and get Matt Kemp. Braves also get Kazmir and McCarthy. Braves immediately release AG, making him a free agent.

Dodgers, by shedding that contract, have cleared the decks for 2018 hot stove pursuit of Bryce Harper.

Guh. Is there any way Harper doesn’t end up in LA? That seems fated.

Yeesh.

Longoria traded to the Giants.

Christian Arroyo, Stephen Woods, Matt Krook, and Denard Span to the Rays for Longoria.

I’m not familiar with the middle two names, but losing one of the better prospects in a shallow minor league system is going to hurt. Though, I guess with a Longoria and Brandon Crawford, Arroyo would have trouble finding a permanent spot in the Giants lineup.

Got rid of a broken-down Span and have more money to play with for CF and a cromulent (and flippable!) 3B. That’s a pretty good deal, in my book.

Arroyo’s OK, but his AA and short major-league record wasn’t really setting anything on fire. Anyway, a 22-year-old isn’t likely to be part of the next winning Giants team. With this aging core, we’re looking at a longer timeline than that.

Longoria is not exactly a youth move for a team that just shook up their minor league system in hopes of finding more talent. He will probably hit 10-15 home runs as a Giant next year between DL stints.

Longoria is 32, not exactly ancient, and had 613 AB’s last year. What makes you think he’ll break down so much?

Maybe I am wrong but I think last year was probably his best in the last 4-5, maybe longer. It was also probably his first healthy year in a while.

Now I will have to go do some googling to check that out. :)

EDIT: Well, he has 600 at bats in the last four years so he has been healthy longer than I thought. If he stays healthy he will at least be an improvement over what they have had there the last few years.

Obviously without knowing how much money is coming back to the Giants it is hard to evaluate a lot of this, but I don’t think that Longoria will prove to be very flippable given that he’s going to be 32 and while he’s still a nice player on a good contract, his slugging has been trending down kind of worryingly and his exit velocity is not looking great so there’s some underlying reasons to be concerned.

I mean, he’s still a great deal at only $13.5 million for a likely 3-4 WAR 3B who plays good defense and generally hits above league average. But I think he’s unlikely to gain value to flip him down the road.

Longoria’s had over 670 plate appearances per year going back to 2013. I’d say that’s pretty durable.

He’s been healthy for the last 5 years playing 155+ games each one. Although he did DH 14 games last year which is probably not something he can do much of with SF since they seem to like to DH Posey during inter-league games.

Last year was one of his lesser hitting years ago, 2016 was hit best in a while. Not saying he couldn’t bounce back to 2016 levels but there’s obviously risk there that a 32 year old doesn’t and on top of that his 2017 was more like 2014-15 so it wasn’t a one year drop in results that you could waive away to a slump or nagging injury or whatever.

Still a good player and an upgrade, but I think you’re more like to see the 3 WAR Longoria than then 4+ one.

He’s a horse who’ll play every/any day he can.

His OBP has been headed in the wrong direction for a while, though, and he’s not exactly moving into a power-hitter’s paradise.

Maybe not…I’m not super-familiar with his contract situation. We’ll see how things look at the trade deadline.

Anyway, this is a fine move when your timeline is 3+ years, and you need to get under the luxury tax while still looking like you’re trying. I’m fine with it anyway.

This, from MLBTR, makes me feel quite a bit more positive. Longoria + OF, stays under the tax. That’s a reasonable price to pay.

10:04pm: The Associated Press reports that the Rays will pay $14.5MM to the Giants and are responsible to the $13MM that is yet owed to Span. Specifically, the Rays will pay $2MM to the Giants by the end of 2017 to cover Longoria’s $2MM trade bonus, and they’ll also pay another $3MM by Oct. 31, 2022. The remaining $9.5MM, per the AP report, will be deferred in payments from 2025-29.

In essence, then, the Giants are adding $60.5MM to their long-term ledger in order to acquire the final five years of Longoria’s contract. Moreover, it doesn’t appear that San Francisco will take much of a hit at all in terms of the luxury tax. So, when paired with the shedding of Matt Moore’s contract, the move should afford the team ample opportunity to add at least one outfielder on a multi-year deal while remaining comfortably south of the $197MM luxury tax threshold.