Not on Steam @Tim_N, but such detailed analysis can be found for the Apple App Store. Which operates in many ways like Steam (shovelware, freemium, aggressive downward pressures on price points).
It also generates the same incentives for the company running it (Valve takes a fixed % from every sale). In principle, both developers and Valve want volume to be high, but obviously, Valve has like 100,000 horses running on the race, while non-shovelware developers maybe have one or two.
Also, Valve (or anybody wanting to put the cash on the table to buy them out) can pretty much set the TOS as they see fit.
So pretty much everything that has been written about the economics of the Apple App store will be informative to a great degree in order to parse the present and the future of on-line game distribution. A collection of links I have collected over the years, and I have used to inform several career choices, with commentary, follow.
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2010/06/full-analysis-of-iphone-economics-its-bad-news-and-then-it-gets-worse.html
That is a June 2010 article with some hard data… this particular bit I find sobering and resonates well with the theme of the article
The purpose of this blog article is to examine the economics - and hopefully help guide potential developers and investors - into seeing where is the real opportunity (if any) and where are the dangerous pitfalls. If it is, as I have been claiming now for many months, that the App Store hysteria is developing into a tech bubble, and that most developers will never recover their costs, then the sooner you the reader can understand this, the sooner you can make the needed moves to minize your losses (or to avoid future and futile attempts to enter this area). I am confident in the long run there will be a vibrant and reasonable-sized market opportunity. but today all numbers scream the opposite. The math simply does not add up.
and
The development of the typical app cost $35,000 and the median paid app earns $682 dollars per year after Apple took its cut. You see where this is going… We get to break even on our App Development costs in… 51 years. I’d say the iPhone battery will need replacing before then, and perhaps our grand kids have grown tired with that oldfashioned antique toy by then. But maybe - just maybe - without any updates to our app, we can sustain 51 years of continuous sales and recover our initial investment. Yeah, and this is obviously without covering any of our marketing costs, and gives us no profit yet, etc… Just to break even.
If you take that absolute lowest end of the two estimates, $15,000 and do our app ‘dirt cheap’ - even then, it will take 22 years to recover our costs. 22 years? I bet AT&T’s 3G cellular license doesn’t run all the way to 2032 haha. And again, HALF of all developers of paid apps will do worse than this! Can you understand why I preach to the industry, yes, there is money in mobile but for heaven’s sake, please do not invest your precious creativity on any smartphone apps today. Its utterly a fool’s errand.
TL;DR Do some math, avoid getting trounced.
A fancy name, and fancy graphs but less fun to read. Written in July 2012.
And that’s the Sparrow problem, break-even was not sustainable. They had to find a way to turn a profit — lots of profit — to provide their investors a decent return.
that also and this
The downward spiral in app prices caused by the Top 100 list and Apple’s relatively hands off approach during the first year of the App Store has created completely unrealistic pricing expectations that may haunt the entire mobile software industry for years to come.
In hindsight, I think “haunt” was the wrong word to use. Though it wouldn’t fit quite as well semantically, or be quite as provocative, I think the right word to use there is “change”.
And this one, written in July 2015. This article has a slightly different vibe from the previous two, as it is hypothesizing the existence of a middle class of app developers which can make reasonable income (before factoring development costs). In general, I find the economics of this last article less sound than that of the two discussions above - the author is a Content Marketing Strategist - so I assume she will be astroturfing a field of turds like I put butter on toast. You don’t want to tell your prospective consulting clients that the chances are they will be shafted and the advice, while informative and expensive, won’t help them much.
Some interesting snippets
The research confirms the rapid advance of a “long tail” of app developers and companies, a new segment of developers proving that many of these apps benefit over time from tapping specific audiences and consumer tastes that run outside the mainstream (like the types of niche audiences that might like indie music or genre-specific games).
Which all sounds great – until you try to actually find one of these niche apps in one of the popular app stores. For smaller app developers, understanding the nuances of discovery and user acquisition is still critical.
I would really like to see what the metrics are for search based “discovery” on Steam
Recent Google research reveals that one in four app users discover apps through search. And The State of App Discovery 2015 — a new study released by attribution analytics company TUNE, drawing from an online poll of 2,100 smartphone users in the U.S. — reports app store search accounts for more than 67% of actual app discovery.
compared with other means (like the New & Trending, Top Sellers, etc.) sections, or the discovery queue.
And, even if app developers and companies invest in paid promotion campaigns to achieve the massive volume of downloads needed to rocket an app to the top of the charts, fame can be fleeting. (The numbers are murky, but mobile app marketing company TradeMob did a little investigating. It found that the magic number for getting into the top 15 in the U.S. App Store was 60,000 downloads over a 24-hour period.)
I’m pretty sure that a “Steam magic number” also exists.