In regards to Where the Water Tastes like Wine…
The game was released one month a go and, goign by SteamSpy, is probably at 6k-7k sales right now (the post mortem and added press focus seems to have helped). That, by Steam indie standards, is doing quite well already. Fantastic, really. We are talking the game has generated (so far, quick napkin calculation) $67k net earnings on it’s first month, which is twice what the original article this thread is about quotes, and will probably be well over 100k after one year on sale. In one platform. It’s going to make 3 to 4 times the median at least.
While the game might not look suited for consoles, in general you can expect a indie game to sell on average twice the Steam numbers among the three main console platforms combined. With an off-beat game like this, maybe cut that to half (could work very well on Switch) but the game should start paying itself in terms of net revenue in a year if it goes multi platform (of course, expenting a windfall of $120k profits per year is unrealistic, as it is basing your indie studio in SF, but that’s another discussion). It should end up in the black, not making anybody a millionaire but far for a finantial failure.
What really baffles me is the $0 income from the first 6k sales the developer quotes. It seems he went for a publishing contract in which the publisher recoups their whole investment before sharing profict with the developer. That, in the current indie climate, is a big, big, BIG no-no. If the developer invested $140K in contractors to develop the game, why would a publisher that certainly will invest less than that in marketing get preferential access to profit share? No indie publisher brings enough value to the market nowadays to justify those conditions.
Again, I don’t know if that’s the case, but it might be judging by the postmortem. Anyways, I just wanted to state that such a contract like the one I describe is by no means an honest proposal nowadays.
Tldr: The game did ok and will do ok, is way above median for Steam and for an indie game and it should be considered a moderate success economically given its budget (that is, a game that will make more than it costs). If it’s not for the developers, it’s not due to the game sales, but due to whatever finantial arrangements do not channel the profits to the developer. Also, do not sign predatory contracts with publishers in this market climate.