Newest Zogby poll: Obama best Dem candidate

At least this week. ;) It is interesting, though, the change in how Dems would do against the top Republican candidates if the election were held today:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1404

Basically, Obama beats every GOP candidate, where Hillary loses to everyone except Romney and Thompson. Edwards beats everyone except McCain and Guiliani.

How does this jive with this article?

“Jibe.”

Oh, and:

Bethany Albertson, a UW assistant political science professor and Anthony Greenwald, a UW psychology professor and inventor of the Implicit Association Test, emphasized that their participants were not a representative sample of Democrats but were self-selected volunteers who took an experimental test over the Web. The data came from 926 people age 18 and over who took the test between Oct. 16 and Nov. 5. Of that total, 687 people said they might vote in the Democratic primaries.

Jibe turkeys.

It’s interesting, but I wouldn’t put too much stock in it. This far out the polls are just comparative name recognition, vague impressions of likeability, and maybe major scandals. Plus it’s a likely voter screen.

I don’t follow this stuff nearly as closely as some here do. That said, on the Dem side, it seems likely that it will be Clinton versus only one or the other of Edwards or Obama. Is that a correct assessment?

i.e. Whichever of Edwards or Obama emerges most strongly from IA/NH will suck in the anti-Clinton contingent. Both seem to be going for roughly the same votes (and running to the left of Hillary, too). So after a short time, it will be Clinton versus Obama or Clinton versus Edwards.

I kinda think Clinton would likely beat Edwards if the race settles down to those two, and that if it becomes Clinton-Obama, it will likely be tight for some time - more or less a tossup in my opinion.

Assuming that the current top 3 finish as the top 3 in IA and NH, how long will Dodd, Biden, and Richardson stay in the race? I doubt it will make too much difference if/when any of them drop out, but it would focus things a bit more.

On the Republican side, I actually think there was a pretty good summary on Daily Kos.

I think Edwards and Obama could potentially take #1 & #2 in Iowa.

It’s certainly possible. But I think over the course of IA, NH, and perhaps one or two after that, one of the big three will likely be squeezed out. I don’t know that Clinton will necessarily emerge on top, but I think she’s more likely to be one of the top two, and that either Edwards or Obama will likely slide out of the top tier.

It depends on the margins, but we’ll see. If they’re all relatively close, I don’t think anything’s going to change.

I am very curious to see who the GOP performers are.

I suspect that going into Super Tuesday, the Dem field will be down to two with a real shot, and the Republican field will be down to three. There will be others hanging on around the fringes, but they won’t affect things much by that point.

As I said, I think it depends on the margins. I do agree that any one of the Golden Triad could drop on or before Super Tuesday, and this is especially true if they fail to establish and maintain their corner of the triangle.

Hillary is not going to drop out. Her ego will not allow her to accept that she isn’t the crown princess. And Bill isn’t going to be able to accept that his standing up and telling everyone “Hey, vote for Hillary and you get me back!” isn’t enough.

Beyond their egos, I still think that if the Clintons call in all their favors, exert all of their power and threats, they can have that formidable machine crank back up and get back in gear. I expect some kind of major dirt/smear campaigns to come out of the woodwork (something more powerful than the silly kindergarden teacher story, and more effective that her attempt to smear Obama with a drug label.) If I were Hillary, I’d also try hard to hire Carville back - he’s a master of the PR spin and dirt (and I mean that in the most positive way.)

I don’t understand what happened to Rudy; did the hardcore GOP suddenly start caring about sleaze? Where is McCain’s jump coming from?

It’s the kind of sleeze, and Rudy’s response. One thing about Rudy that’s been true since his days as NY mayor, the more you know, the less you like.

I think McCain is coming in as the “not so crazy” guy. He’s looking presidential by default.

I think, from watching and reading, Rudy the concept was much better than Rudy the reality. He has come across as a worst case mix of shifty, evasive, unpolished, and arrogant in interviews, such as Meet the Press. He’s also given off that arrogant vibe by just blowing off all the primaries up to Florida.

I know some pretty hard core Republicans who were fired up about Rudy and willing to compromise on some of their more conservative social issues because they had an image of Rudy as a tough, eloquent, effective politician. He’s not even on their radar screen now (as of last week) - the discussion is “well, he’s not even really running, is he? He’s nowhere to be found in Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina.” And they both, independantly, called him an ass.

McCain - I don’t know, but I suspect that McCain is starting to look good in comparison with Huckabee and Romney. He’s a known entity for people.

I don’t know of any Republicans who are really enthused about any Republican nominees, and that includes a number of conservative Christians (some of them basically say they think it’s insulting to assume they’ll vote for Huckabee just because of his religious background.)

It is a really, really bad time for Republicans. I remember the Nixon days, and I don’t remember the entire party being as fractured and torn asunder and disorganized as they are now.

(Edited for a duh moment - really bad time for REPUBLICANS! duh!)

I’m having a hard time getting out of the habit of thinking that too. :)

I guess the social conservatives already hate McCain, so he makes more sense as an alternative to Huckabee for the neocons and money people than Romney. It’s incomprehensible to me though - look at how venom places like National Review have for the guy. Romney, by contrast, will do whatever they tell him to.

Why weren’t they thinking that back when it mattered, say, circa 2000? =/

I know this is a stretch, but it may be the Clinton campaign tried to make hay out of Obama’s Kindergarten presidency because it was all they could find. I mean, Obama doesn’t strike me as the kind of guy with tons of skeletons in his closet. I guess they could make stuff up, “Barack Osama” Foxnews style, but that would be pretty down in the gutter even for Hillary Clinton.

They seem awfully eager to write Guiliani off. I suspect it’ll be Huckabee-Romney-McCain in Iowa followed by Guiliani-Romney-McCain in NH (with Huckabee a strong 4th, maybe beating McCain).

I do agree that if Huckabee gets even stronger the Republican establishment will unite behind McCain to stop him from being nominated (Guiliani and Romney both will flame out after NH - Romney especially, he basically tried to buy the nomination and failed).