Just listened to this, and I have come to the conclusion that Michael Pachter is indeed a clueless idiot.
For one, he believes that there won’t be another console generation after this one.
And Gary - why didn’t you press him on any of his points about Sony? He seems to assume that Sony is going to win, no problem - but really didn’t seem to have any idea why. Because they’re Sony?
To be fair, that does seem to be the entirety of Sony’s business strategy.
all ineluctable.
Yeah, I also had problems with Pachter’s predictions (Nintendo will win in terms of profits, certainly, for example), but since 360 adoption wasn’t fast over the past year (slower than XBOX 1, no?) and the PS3 is out tomorrow, Sony probably will win. I don’t think the 360 created enough of a market for itself quickly enough that it’s the obvious choice for any developers making new games.
I was ok with what he said up until the end with the 10 yr cycle and horrible analogy to TV’s. The guts of consoles will stay the same for 10 yrs? Playstation 3.2? Does he not follow the advancements in cpu and gpu technology that pretty much revs every 6 months? Has he ever heard of Moore?
Ya, some of what he said I thought was possible (Wii kicking ass due to wider audience, etc)… But Playstation 3.2… Sony the winner for no apparent reason?
Seriously - someone explain to me how Sony wins when the 360 is out first, has a MUCH better online infrastructure, hardware wise is functionally the same box, is cheaper AND has a bigger installed base. Somehow Sony is going to ramp up its production over the next year or two and then eventually all the developers are going to go “Well, it’s the exact same, but we’ll support it over the 360 because it’s Sony.” Blue ray?
And ya, the PS3.2 stuff (notice he didn’t say XBox 365) is retarded as well.
S O N Y is a religion to a lot of people. You should not underestimate what that name means to an entire generation. Also, these teens/twentysomethings standing in line everywhere had PlayStation as their first console. People like to bag on Nintendo fans for their long held interest in Nintendo products and games, but the Sony fans are just as prevalent now because all these people grew up with PlayStation and not Nintendo.
I agree with Pachter on some things but not on others. I think there’s a possibility the Wii will outsell both the others and be in first at the end of the generation simply because everyone will own one, not just those who get it as a primary console, but all the PS3 and 360 people who buy it as a second console to share with their family or for something different.