1641

Woof.

Generational talent retires during his prime will help? It will free up cap space to hire someone not nearly as talented as Calvin? I don’t get how this would ever help, their offense depended on him as a safety valve. Every game, he was the outlet for big plays, Stafford’s go to guy when things are falling apart.

This is really bad. I hope he does come back, because he is a joy to watch play, and Detroit could have more time to come up with a back up plan.

1642

If the Lions feel they are in rebuild mode at this point and have a QB in place with Stafford, maybe trying to trade Johnson to a Superbowl contender for high draft pick or two would help. Maybe Johnson would be interested in that instead of another year in the mines at Detroit. Just think if he played for the Patriots or even the Panthers.

1643

I mean, I understand long term being like 3-5 more years of rebuilding though, and at that point stafford is starting to get on in years. This is a team that was a couple pieces away from a superbowl a few years back.

Really has to suck to go back to “rebuilding” again so soon.

1644

He is not in his prime. He is/was still good but his numbers have been falling since 2013. His cap hit next year (24 mil!) would be terrible and if he was not retiring the Lions would certainly have insisted that he renegotiate or they would have cut him.

1645

Some things can be beneficial and not necessarily be a good thing. I do not want Johnson to retire. He is, even with slightly diminished skills, one of the best receivers playing. Still he is a huge cap hit down the road and it would benefit the team in the long run if he were to retire, after the 2016 season. The thing is, it could also benefit the team if he stay playing, the two ideas are not mutually exclusive, they just benefit the team in different ways.

As far as Johnson playing elsewhere. I believe that next season will be a good one for the Lions. They have a very favorable schedule and they were not for aff this season. In spite of a bad start and several games they lost where refs made game changing mistakes and later apologized to the Lions for them, they still almost made the playoffs. They played strong down the stretch, where many teams would have folded. I dont think the organization believes they are ready to kick back into rebuild mode, I think they believe they are a contender now and they need to take advantage of that. Thats why I think Megatron stays in Detroit, if he chooses to play next season. I believe he wants that chance to win with Detroit.

1646

I pretty firmly believe that the Lions will not be successful with Jim Caldwell as their coach.

1647

Manziel to be cut as soon as league rules allow it, per sources (aka: anyone who read the Browns’ statement regarding his latest antics). Good riddance, a shame we couldn’t trick someone into giving up a pick for him though.

1648

Yep, the statement says, "His status with our team will be addressed when permitted by league rules.” That’s makes it is clear as the rules allow that he’s gone.

1649

Some talking heads have theorized that Manziel’s antics may be a result in large part of his desire to simply not be in Cleveland. That in essence he is so depressed about being where he is that he is subconsciously acting out so that the team will release him. I can’t believe that could be true. While being drafted by Cleveland certainly would have rated far lower on Manziel’s personal scale than being drafted by Dallas or Houston, it’s still an NFL team, an NFL contract ($$$) and a chance to spend 3 or 4 years proving you belong, then cashing in with a huge contract someplace else when free agency arrives. I can’t believe that there are not plenty of people around him who have said this a million times.

Instead, he seems bound and determined to Ryan Leaf himself. Given every opportunity to succeed, he instead chooses to implode. When the Browns release him next Monday, will there even be a team willing to give him another chance?

1650

That may be still be the hottest NFL take of 2016 at the end of the year. Good lord. “Subconsciously wanting to get out of Cleveland,” indeed.

1651

I don’t know, money doesn’t magically make people rational and less prone to depression, mental illness, self-destructive behavior, etc. Not trying to justify or explain Manziel but at the end of the day athletes are just people. Lots of people engage in self-destructive behavior to cope with pressure and anxiety.

1652

I read they’re stuck with him until March, when the cap increases. I expect him to be a Cowboy before April.

1653

I don’t think Jerry is dumb enough to take a shot at him at this point. We’ll see.

1654

So here’s an interesting Super Bowl prop bet.

It requires a few things.

  1. You have to favor Moneyline betting over point spread wagering. Moneyline is basically what you’d need to wager to win X amount of money compared to $100, but you collect regardless of the score if your team wins. Carolina is -220, which means that you’d have to bet $220 to win that amount plus $100 back. Not a great bet, but if you hate spreads and really like the Panthers, there you go.

  2. You have to have access to a betting site that does TV prop bets. The online places that use Moneyline mostly do the TV prop bets.

  3. You have to be wanting to play Carolina.

The bet: play a prop bet for Carolina as one of the home TV markets to pull higher ratings than the home Denver TV market. (Yes, that’s actually a prop bet.)

Why? Data.

Last 20 Super Bowls, the winning team has pulled a higher home market rating than the losing team. There have been five exceptions. Two of those are New York Giants losses. The other two? Denver, twice, against Green Bay (Milwaukee is the home market) and Atlanta. That’s a decent strike against Denver.

Home TV markets in Eastern and Central time zones tend to outdraw, historically Mountain and Pacific home team markets. Strike 2 against Denver.

There was one other winning team home market that got outdrawn by the losing team home market in the last 20 years. Wanna take a guess? Yep. Carolina (Charlotte market) pulled a higher rating than Seattle when the Seahawks won that Super Bowl. Strike 3.

Finally though, there’s this. Carolina pulling a higher rating than Denver as a prop bet is currently listed at -110 on Moneyline. In other words, if you really think Carolina is going to win, don’t bet them as a team to win, take the prop bet at -110 on the TV Markets instead to get more bang for your buck.

1655
  1. You have to favor Moneyline betting over point spread wagering. Moneyline is basically what you’d need to wager to win X amount of money compared to $100, but you collect regardless of the score if your team wins. Carolina is -220, which means that you’d have to bet $220 to win that amount plus $100 back. Not a great bet, but if you hate spreads and really like the Panthers, there you go.

That seems like an unnecessarily complex way to arrange and describe ordinary (in the UK) odds betting.

1656

1657

He signed Hardy. Dallas needs a better backup. Manziel may not actually be a better backup, but Dallas needs to do something about the position.

1658

Manziel has spiraled down so far that now even his agent has cut ties with him. I doubt that even Jerry would pick him up at this point.

1659

Yeah with the latest Manziel revelations it does not seem likely that anyone will sign him.

Super Bowl!

I like Denver +5.5. They have the better D. Panthers have a good D, but Denver is better.

I think Manning will be able to take advantage of the Panthers’ suspect corners. Norman is awesome but they have some dudes that were not on a roster to start the season. I think it will be a close game but I like Denver to at least cover, if not win outright. Denver will play a conservative game but if they can get a lead, their D will close it out.

1660

Carolina by 21. At least. I’m expecting a total blowout. Manning is history.