1

Tennessee at Baltimore
Kansas City at Carolina
San Diego at Miami
Washington at Philadelphia
Indianapolis at Houston
Seattle at N.Y. Giants
Atlanta at Green Bay
Chicago at Detroit
Tampa Bay at Denver
Buffalo at Arizona
New England at San Francisco
Cincinnati at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
Minnesota at New Orleans

2

Tennessee at Baltimore
Kansas City at Carolina
San Diego at Miami
Washington at Philadelphia
Indianapolis at Houston
Seattle at N.Y. Giants
Atlanta at Green Bay
Chicago at Detroit
Tampa Bay at Denver
Buffalo at Arizona
New England at San Francisco
Cincinnati at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
Minnesota at New Orleans

Troy

3

Tennessee at Baltimore
Kansas City at Carolina
San Diego at Miami
Washington at Philadelphia
Indianapolis at Houston
Seattle at N.Y. Giants
Atlanta at Green Bay
Chicago at Detroit
Tampa Bay at Denver
Buffalo at Arizona
New England at San Francisco
Cincinnati at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
Minnesota at New Orleans

While the Lions should lose this week, they’ll manage to scrape out a win against the Bears, after which they’ll be all “this is a turning point, the rest of the season is going to be different” and then they’ll lose five straight.

4

Tennessee at Baltimore
Kansas City at Carolina
San Diego at Miami
Washington at Philadelphia
Indianapolis at Houston
Seattle at N.Y. Giants
Atlanta at Green Bay
Chicago at Detroit
Tampa Bay at Denver
Buffalo at Arizona
New England at San Francisco
Cincinnati at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
Minnesota at New Orleans

5

Tennessee at Baltimore - Can anyone stop the Titans?
Kansas City at Carolina - Come now.
San Diego at Miami - I swear to God, Chargers, if you lose…
Washington at Philadelphia - Sounds like an exciting game.
Indianapolis at Houston - Whoston?
Seattle at N.Y. Giants - Eat dirt, Seattle.
Atlanta at Green Bay - What gives, Packers? Great first two games, then FAIL.
Chicago at Detroit - This week’s shot in the dark.
Tampa Bay at Denver - You LOST to the CHEFS?
Buffalo at Arizona - Sorry mom, but your Bills’ streak must end. Hopefully the Cards can play like they did during Week 4’s third quarter for ALL the quarters.
New England at San Francisco - You may be tied with me in my division, 49ers, but I never pass up a chance to humiliate the Patriots.
Cincinnati at Dallas - Christ, do I have to pick the Cowboys?
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville - Go Jags!
Minnesota at New Orleans - Looks like they’re getting it together.

6

Tennessee at Baltimore
Kansas City at Carolina
San Diego at Miami
Washington at Philadelphia
Indianapolis at Houston
Seattle at N.Y. Giants
Atlanta at Green Bay
Chicago at Detroit
Tampa Bay at Denver
Buffalo at Arizona
New England at San Francisco
Cincinnati at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
Minnesota at New Orleans

Week 5 Predictions

At this point, it’s worth discussing the way the Rimbot works to describe just why it’s dumb enough to think that Miami will beat San Diego or that Denver will falter when Tampa Bay comes to Mile High.

The basic idea of the Rimbot is to predict a team’s expected score based on its past performance. The key to this calculation is the factor. This number represents how many points a team scored versus its opponents’ averages.

For example, Tennessee’s got factors of 1.134 scored and 0.598 against. What this means is that the Titans’ average of 25.5 points per game is 13% more than their opponents allowed on average. It’s a slightly above-average offense. The Titans’ defense is crazy stingy; their 11.5 allowed per game is just 60% of their opponents’ average points scored. This is a terrific defense.

But as you’d probably guess, early in the season, you have less information, and thus you’d expect the predictions to be less accurate. Thus at this point, one of the most important pieces is the Std. Dev. The closer this number is to zero, the more consistent the team, and the more reliable the prediction. If this number is greater than one, then the associated factor is probably completely out of whack.

And that’s what’s wrong with the Miami prediction: Their scored-per-game factor of 1.5 has a big hand in calculated their expected 33 points, but the std. dev. of ±1.6 means that they could score several touchdowns more or less and it would still be reasonable. As time goes by, those numbers will settle down, and lower ones will go up; by the end of last season, most teams had a std. dev. in the range of ±0.35 to ±0.40.

7

Tennessee at Baltimore
Kansas City at Carolina
San Diego at Miami
Washington at Philadelphia
Indianapolis at Houston
Seattle at N.Y. Giants
Atlanta at Green Bay
Chicago at Detroit
Tampa Bay at Denver
Buffalo at Arizona
New England at San Francisco
Cincinnati at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
Minnesota at New Orleans

8

Watching some of this Kiffin firing press conference. Holy crap, this is going to be messy. And Al Davis isn’t doing himself any favors in his meandering style of talking about it and revealing all kinds of inside details that you never hear.

9

Tennessee at Baltimore
Kansas City at Carolina
San Diego at Miami
Washington at Philadelphia
Indianapolis at Houston
Seattle at N.Y. Giants: I have almost no confidence in this pick, but I will not pick against the hawks!
Atlanta at Green Bay
Chicago at Detroit
Tampa Bay at Denver
Buffalo at Arizona: Arizona is not a good team
New England at San Francisco: SF is not a good team
Cincinnati at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
Minnesota at New Orleans: Interesting game. NO has awful defense, Minnesota has an awful offense.

10

Tennessee at Baltimore
Kansas City at Carolina
San Diego at Miami
Washington at Philadelphia
Indianapolis at Houston
Seattle at N.Y. Giants
Atlanta at Green Bay
Chicago at Detroit
Tampa Bay at Denver
Buffalo at Arizona
New England at San Francisco
Cincinnati at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
Minnesota at New Orleans

11

Tennessee at Baltimore
Kansas City at Carolina
San Diego at Miami
Washington at Philadelphia
Indianapolis at Houston
Seattle at N.Y. Giants
Atlanta at Green Bay
Chicago at Detroit. Yah, back in the fold.
Tampa Bay at Denver
Buffalo at Arizona
New England at San Francisco
Cincinnati at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
Minnesota at New Orleans

12

Tennessee at Baltimore
Kansas City at Carolina
San Diego at Miami
Washington at Philadelphia
Indianapolis at Houston
Seattle at N.Y. Giants
Atlanta at Green Bay
Chicago at Detroit
Tampa Bay at Denver
Buffalo at Arizona
New England at San Francisco
Cincinnati at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
Minnesota at New Orleans

13

Tennessee at Baltimore
Kansas City at Carolina
San Diego at Miami
Washington at Philadelphia
Indianapolis at Houston
Seattle at N.Y. Giants
Atlanta at Green Bay
Chicago at Detroit
Tampa Bay at Denver
Buffalo at Arizona
New England at San Francisco
Cincinnati at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
Minnesota at New Orleans

14

Missed one out there.

15

What’s kind of sad is even though the Raiders wouldn’t have ended up with a winning record by season’s end regardless, the Raiders performance up to now this season isn’t all that bad, really. I mean sure, the pasting by Denver was ugly in week 1. But after that, it’s a sound thumping of KC (yes they’re terrible, but witness games like Cincy/Cleveland for how games between terrible division rivals go), a squeaker of a loss to the odds-on favorite to win the AFC East Bills and the Chargers game which they were in control of for awhile until the pure talent the Chargers have just took over. I’d honestly say the Raiders had less to worry about than at least a few other teams by the end of Week 4.

16

Well, Al sure seemed convinced he has the talent to be better. To be honest, if his version of things is correct, then Kiffin looks pretty bad. But I don’t know that Al comes across as believable/competent enough at this point. It was funny - I was watching the press conference on the NFL Network feed on NFL.com, and they had a former Raiders front office guy on to comment. The host started by talking about how despite all the rumors, Al sounded pretty good, and the guest responded by saying that Al had gone down hill in the last few years, as was evidenced by how he meandered around the issues.

I actually think that if this wasn’t Al Davis and the Raiders, the league would have stepped in at some point to get Al out of the picture. But, because it is Al, that’s never going to happen.

17

Tennessee at Baltimore
Kansas City at Carolina
San Diego at Miami
Washington at Philadelphia
Indianapolis at Houston
Seattle at N.Y. Giants
Atlanta at Green Bay
Chicago at Detroit
Tampa Bay at Denver
Buffalo at Arizona
New England at San Francisco
Cincinnati at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
Minnesota at New Orleans

— Alan

18 
 1.   Bill Dungsroman  44-16  (73%)  TEN CAR CHI  GB IND  SD NYG PHI DEN ARI DAL  SF JAC  NO

 2.            sluggo  43-17  (72%)  

 3.            NatCox  42-18  (70%)  

 4.     Slainte Mhath  41-19  (68%)  

 5.            Shmtur  40-20  (67%)  TEN CAR CHI  GB IND  SD NYG PHI DEN BUF DAL  SF PIT  NO

 6.            Ryan A  39-21  (65%)  BAL CAR CHI  GB IND  SD SEA PHI DEN ARI DAL  NE JAC  NO
 6.            Sarkus  39-21  (65%)  

 8.        amiller320  38-22  (63%)  
 8.           nixon66  38-22  (63%)  

10.         bahimiron  37-23  (62%)  TEN CAR CHI  GB IND  SD NYG WAS DEN BUF DAL  NE JAC MIN
10.             balut  37-23  (62%)  TEN CAR CHI ATL IND MIA NYG PHI DEN ARI DAL  SF PIT  NO

12.           Crispus  36-24  (60%)  
12.        Jon_Danger  36-24  (60%)  
12.            Lorini  36-24  (60%)  
12.          Talisker  36-24  (60%)  TEN CAR DET  GB IND  SD NYG PHI DEN ARI DAL  NE JAC  NO
12. Troy S Goodfellow  36-24  (60%)  TEN CAR CHI  GB IND  SD NYG PHI  TB BUF DAL  NE PIT  NO

17.       Alan Dunkin  35-24  (59%)  BAL CAR CHI  GB IND MIA NYG WAS DEN ARI DAL  SF PIT  NO

18.      BennyProfane  35-25  (58%)  
18.     BlueJackalope  35-25  (58%)  TEN CAR CHI  GB IND  SD SEA PHI DEN ARI DAL  NE JAC  NO
18.         Juan Rayo  35-25  (58%)  TEN CAR CHI  GB IND  SD NYG WAS DEN BUF DAL  NE JAC  NO
18.      Kid Socrates  35-25  (58%)  
18.      Matt Perkins  35-25  (58%)  
18.   Squirrel Killer  35-25  (58%)  

24.            Kraaze  34-26  (57%)  BAL CAR CHI  GB IND MIA NYG PHI  TB BUF DAL  SF PIT  NO
24.           MrFrump  34-26  (57%)  
24.       Uncle Larry  34-26  (57%)  BAL CAR CHI  GB HOU  SD SEA PHI DEN BUF DAL  NE JAC  NO

27.          ColonelT  33-27  (55%)  
27.           Contrai  33-27  (55%)  
27.     Not One Of Us  33-27  (55%)  TEN CAR DET  GB IND  SD NYG PHI  TB ARI DAL  SF JAC  NO
27.           shadarr  33-27  (55%)  

31.        Mark Crump  32-27  (54%)  BAL CAR DET  GB IND MIA SEA PHI DEN BUF DAL  NE JAC  NO
31.          Omniscia  32-27  (54%)  

33.      Robert Sharp  32-28  (53%)  

34.            Greedo  30-30  (50%)  

35.            Gratzy  27-17  (61%)  

36.             jeffd  22-22  (50%)  TEN CAR CHI  GB IND  SD SEA PHI DEN BUF DAL  NE JAC  NO

37.      wildpokerman  18-13  (58%)  

38.         Charlatan  16-15  (52%)  

39.             Siren  10-6   (63%)

====== week 5 pick stats ======

PEOPLE WITH MORE/LESS THAN 14 PICKS: Uncle Larry (15)
(double-check your bolding!)

# of picks per team:

TEN 11 @ BAL 5

KC 0 @ CAR 16

CHI 13 @ DET 3
(DET: Mark Crump, Not One Of Us, Talisker)

ATL 1 @ GB 15
(ATL: balut)

IND 15 @ HOU 1
(HOU: Uncle Larry)

SD 11 @ MIA 5

SEA 5 @ NYG 11

WAS 3 @ PHI 13
(WAS: Alan Dunkin, bahimiron, Juan Rayo)

TB 4 @ DEN 12
(TB: *Rimbot, Kraaze, Not One Of Us, Troy S Goodfellow)

BUF 9 @ ARI 7

CIN 0 @ DAL 16

NE 9 @ SF 7

PIT 6 @ JAC 10

MIN 1 @ NO 15
(MIN: bahimiron)

The QT3 consensus:
TEN CAR CHI GB IND SD NYG PHI DEN BUF DAL NE JAC NO

Maverick ratings (# of picks that differ with the QT3 consensus):
6: Alan Dunkin
5: balut, Kraaze
4: *Rimbot, Mark Crump, Not One Of Us, Uncle Larry
3: Ryan A
2: bahimiron, Bill Dungsroman, BlueJackalope, Shmtur, Talisker, Troy S Goodfellow
1: jeffd, Juan Rayo

No picks entered: amiller320; BennyProfane; ColonelT; Contrai; Crispus; Greedo; Jon_Danger; Kid Socrates; Lorini; Matt Perkins; MrFrump; NatCox; nixon66; Robert Sharp; Sarkus; shadarr; Slainte Mhath; sluggo; Squirrel Killer

19

Tennessee at Baltimore
Kansas City at Carolina
San Diego at Miami
Washington at Philadelphia
Indianapolis at Houston
Seattle at N.Y. Giants
Atlanta at Green Bay
Chicago at Detroit
Tampa Bay at Denver
Buffalo at Arizona
New England at San Francisco
Cincinnati at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
Minnesota at New Orleans

20

Tennessee at Baltimore
Kansas City at Carolina
San Diego at Miami
Washington at Philadelphia
Indianapolis at Houston
Seattle at N.Y. Giants
Atlanta at Green Bay
Chicago at Detroit
Tampa Bay at Denver
Buffalo at Arizona
New England at San Francisco
Cincinnati at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
Minnesota at New Orleans

* all picks decided by coin flip