From stratfor:
Yes, you’re talking the KN-09, and the M1978. I didn’t think their 170mm rockets had the range, but even if so.
The description given there is clearly not reality though… because all of those weapons are NOT in fact in range of Seoul.
Additionally, they are not going to fire 100% of their weapons at Seoul, or even fire at all, because they would also be using them in a defensive manner.
And, as stated, NK’s got a huge failure rate in prior tests.
And assumed, in an offensive manner, which would require targets much closer to where troop/tank movement would head.
Sure, they could just be going for terror, but it would be foolish if they don’t get many initial shots before serious retaliation, that they would use them as civilian only targetting.
Yes, if they really devoted 100% of their firepower at just killing civilians, it would essentially be betraying the fact that they aren’t even trying to defend themselves. Which would likely cause their military to balk at it… because they’d be told “Just fire everything you got, and don’t defend yourselves.” Which means, “Commit war crimes, in a war that we already assume we’re going to lose.”
I don’t think their military will balk at anything whatsoever.
That’s assuming NK’s military and leader have any idea of military strategy. They haven’t been involved in a real war-like scenario in over 60 years. I could see them just throwing everything at Seoul and then trying to react after the fact. They might assume their border artillery is mostly a lost cause once real fighting starts and try to get as much revenge as they can since they can’t win a war anyway.
Not if they don’t want to get shot by AAA guns or flamethrowers.
And I’m pretty sure their military likely does more horrible things during a regular day. Killing their own citizens is likely not a rare situation. Kill the enemy’s civilians? Doubt it would ever register on the radar, especially since not doing it means you and your whole family probably dies.
Perhaps, but I can’t imagine China not having similar anti-missile defense systems to the United States, and thus being able to knock out anything large launched their way. Hell, even if they didn’t there’s a damn good chance U.S. military commanders would give the order to knock down anything big heading China’s way as once an attack on NK from China began, the U.S. would be quick to offer their support in a “purely defensive role”.
If China attacked, and the U.S. had a prior agreement to support such an attack by covering SK, Japan and even Chinese troop movements with anti-missile defenses and other support, the fight would be over in hours. I have no idea how NK would be divided up afterwards, but the threat would be gone.
They will.
The belief that they are all rabid fanatics who will all heave themselves upon their swords in defense of a fat man-child is the same kind of mentality that many held about the Iraqi Republican Guard… “Oh man, those guys are real fanatics, they’ll never give up!”
Nah, they gave up as quick as anyone. Because when it’s obvious that they would lose, the loyalty to the guy who’s gonna go up on the gallows evaporates real fast.
The Iraqis were not indoctrinated since birth with a comprehensive and uniform ideology rooted in racial identity the way the North Koreans are. There is more holding up the NK state than terror of the dictator. People really believe in juche. It is very possible that a good number of NK would hold out like the Japanese in Okinawa-- even if they were invaded from China instead of from the south.
I guess it’s possible, but I think that is going to crumble really fast. I know they’re supposed to believe their leader is a god and some such shit, but I simply don’t believe that when they aren’t threatened with death for not believing, that they’re really going to believe it.
Given the tyranny that exists there now, I think it’s very difficult to know how much of that bullshit is real… and just based on normal human nature, I’m thinking that it’s likely almost all bullshit… because North Koreans are in fact normal humans.
Eh, this is getting into troubling and uncertain territory, really. Of course North Korean soldiers are humans. But humans are quite capable of doing very odd things; the Japanese who refused to surrender until years after the Second World War, or who through themselves off of cliffs at Saipan, for example. It’s entirely plausible that North Korean soldiers would have the same degree of fanatic loyalty to the regime. It’s also entirely possible they would not.
As I’ve said before, I’d rather not have to find out.
How could they be normal being raised in North Korea? They were literally drowning themselves to save paintings of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il. This is not rational, normal behaviour. I dont think we can begin to comprehend life under juche.
Because the North Korean regime doesn’t actually prevent the people from hearing about the real world.
In the 1940’s, it was way easier to prevent communications with the outside world. Nowadays? Way harder. Beyond all that, you’ve got NK’s population enduring shit like widespread famines, while not even at war. It’s kind of hard to believe your leader is literally God, while you are also literally starving to death.
There have been hundreds of thousands of defectors from NK. Clearly, they aren’t all fooled.
They are human beings. They aren’t some kind of weird mindless automatons.
Human beings can be conditioned to be weird mindless automatons though. See: Numerous cults. Numerous ideologies which engaged in genocide etc. The perpetrators of Year Zero did with a smile on their face, a song in their heart and an absolute belief they were doing the right thing.
They can be, but I don’t think they can be on a really large scale. Just my opinion though.
Fighting fanatically to defend your homeland from a genetically and morally inferior invader who will slaughter your family and sow corruption and depravity doesn’t require mindless automatons-- it is pretty much the standard for human behavior. North Korean defectors notoriously have a hard time transitioning to life outside because they live in a constant state of cognitive dissonance because the juche attitude towards foreigners is so deeply ingrained.
How that will translate to military performance in a big Korea conflict is of course unknown, but it’s not that different from pre-war Japanese ethno-nationalism.
If you want large scale just look at the Soviet Union in WW2. Heroic sacrifices for the Motherland on the front line, Stakhanovites working themselves to death on the civilian side, and all for a regime that killed more of them than Hitler did.
China has the best idea with NK. Control trade and resources. Wait it out. Timelines on a Chinese scale. A few more generations. Keep them in lobster and cognac and they wont do anything other than posture. Even if they have nukes.
I think the difference though is that in the modern world, it’s almost impossible to actually prevent contact with the real world like you could in the 40’s.
Despite their best attempts, the NK regime cannot actually prevent knowledge of the outside world from trickling into their population… and the simple reality of the situation is that everything in NK sucks balls.
Just on basic shit, like, “Hey, people in SK have food whenever they want…They have electricity at night!”
We seem to be inclined to think that the NK population is some kind of alien… that somehow they don’t acknowledge such simple and obvious truths… But I’m pretty sure they do. They just can’t do anything about it, because they live under a regime where they will be murdered if they try.
This popped up on my timeline and is relevant. Just if we want to see how bad humans can be.
This man is healthy, safe, well fed, educated and has free access to near infinite information.
