http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/28/campbell.brown.obama/index.html?iref=mpstoryview
The election must be going really badly for the Republicans if they are now resorting to complaints that Obama is too popular.
He argued he would need all that cash to fight the ruthless attacks of 527s, those independent groups like the Swift Boat Veterans. It’s funny though, those attacks never really materialized.
Yeah, no one tried to play any Swift Boat level tactics…
Also, she just figured this out now? Didn’t we have this discussion when he decided to forego public financing? Or was she not worried at the time, thinking that The Lord Jesus, Who Is The Christ, would provide McCain with all the capital he needed?
The other thing to keep in mind is that it’s not just the campaigns and the 527, there’s also the national party fundraising, and that money advantage generally goes (even including this year I believe), to the Republicans.
It’s catastrophically bad. Their candidate is a charmless geezer, and his acts of heroism are 40 years old. The new electorate wasn’t even born then. His VP pick is currently campaigining against him. The economy is in shambles. Ted Stevens just got convicted. Every day is a new day for a gaffe, blunder or scandal for the incumbent party. All Obama has to do is keep his mouth shut and coast to victory.
So yeah, the Republicans are saying any and everything to slow down Obama’s imminent victory. I can’t even imagine what horrible, desperate things they will do or say the night before the election.
The far right has already suggested Obama is the anti-Christ so I don’t figure it to be much worse than that.
That ad seems like a huge booster for Obama with a limp wristed “but is he ready to lead?” thrown in at the end. That’s going to do nothing good for McCain.
I think you’re underestimating just how close this is going to be. There is still a good chance that Obama is going to lose.
There is still a good chance that Obama is going to lose.
What are you basing that on? Gut feel or do you have numbers?
HAHAHA Your thread is doomed. The other thread on the same subject was made by Dirt and thus it will balloon in popularity. A zerg rush that only the power of the overmind could muster.
Sorry…
Here is what I think and you will have to forgive me for having a cynical and depressing opinion of human nature.
I believe that racism and Xenophobia is more entrenched in most societies than most people are willing to admit unfortunately most of those people who harbour Xenophobic misgivings realize that these feelings are incorrect.
So what you are going to get is a large amount of people who will answer in polls that they will vote for Obama but when push comes to shove in the anonymity of the polling booth they are going to vote for the old white guy.
Essentially take the current polls and shift them five to ten percent (Massive thumb suck. ) towards McCain.
Now I could be wrong because Palin seems to be a vile human being and McCain strikes me as being out of his league but I’m not sure.
Lord almighty am I tired of hearing people wring their hands over the Bradley effect.
As the electorate finds themselves sliding down Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs they seem to have discovered there’s less time for anger and hate…
Sort of on that note, I would like to paraphrase a friend of mine:
I keep seeing “Democrat for McCain” stickers lately. I really want to tell these people that a sticker that says “I hate niggers” would get their point across more efficiently.
Brendan, it’s hard to overstate how shaken people are by the financial meltdown. I think Obama probably would have won if it hadn’t happened, but it’s blown the race wide open.
The race thing has never been easy for Obama and there’s no doubt he’s had a tougher time than a white politician in his situation might have although it’s just as likely that it’s helped him with black turnout and people who want to be part of a historic election. But it doesn’t make sense that people are lying to pollsters about whether or not they’re going to vote for him, because there are plenty of reasons a person could use to justify their choice even if race is the secret motivator.
Coincidentally, I feel the same way about Dirt when he posts a new “Obama is a bad person” thread.
For some in depth analysis debunking the “Obama polls are inaccurate” (aka Bradley Effect) stuff please see the wealth of material written by 538’s Nate Silver on this topic:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/bradley%20effect
I can’t quite come to grips with the Democrats for McCain movement myself. Here, listen to this.
Is it bitterness? Is it some sort of daddy issue? It’s not outright racism, it’s something else…
I can’t quite pur my finger on it.
I heard that piece too. I think it’s probably fear of the unknown and the consequences of the extended primary that mostly just allowed for bad feelings to set in and fester. After a certain point in the primaries, there was simply no way that the outcome was going to be viewed as legitimate by the die hard supporters who ended up on the losing side.
The Hillary dead enders who are part of that group reinforce their paranoia and they’re more susceptible to the rumors and conspiracy theories as a result. It’s funny how these were the same things they used to say about the Clintons, though, isn’t it?
I think most Clinton supporters are over it, though. Any reporter can go find the kooks still on the fringe - just take a friendly jaunt over to Hillaryis44.
Hey, I’ll be glad to be wrong.
I think and hope you will be. But everyone I talk to about the election say something along those lines.
With the absense of New Hampshire (in which case I think the polls just weren’t fast enough to react to the events unfolding in the campaign), I can’t think of another primary election where the polls were very far off from what happened. Other than South Carolina where they were way off on Obama’s eventual margin. And I think Democrats might experience more of that social pressure/guilt thing that would make them lie to a pollster about supporting the black man.
Correct me if I’m wrong, though.