No doubt many bribes of one sort or another have been offered. But is the bill they’ll vote on tomorrow one that has a chance in the Senate?
Yup, at this point I’d settle for a less fucked up world. There are no silver bullets for the healthcare mess. In many ways, I prefer the Republican bill to Obamacare, but the differences between a horrendous bill and a really awful one are pretty minor.
Never underestimate Republican’s bottomless capacity for evil.
Given a choice between benefiting the rich at the expense of the vulnerable (with the added bonus of giving dear leader a win), I know where I’d put my chips.
Edit:
And if (or when) it passes, then here comes the MSM “narrative” of “Trump leadership and deal making.”
Just shoot me now.
The bill is designed to go through reconciliation so it can’t be filibustered.
Local Congressman is voting against because it doesn’t screw poor people hard enough.
And my ambivalnce is based on the fact I expect that if this doesn’t pass, something worse will pass next year.
The longer the wait the harder it will be to repeal the ACA. More people with coverage, hopefully stabilizing rates, etc. Plus you get closer to an election.
In fairness, it’s not @Alstein who’s trying to kill off the poor; that would be every single person who has voted Republican at any level in the last 30 years, and they deserve the full force of your ire. And to be dropped off a cliff. Maybe. Probably.
I think our good friend here is mostly trying to see some light at the end of the black tunnel said voters have cast us down. Like, this shit’s gonna come to pass almost regardless of sense and morality; may as well try to make political hay of it for those of us that survive.
Saw that earlier, but as of this morning when they were saying that, they didn’t have the votes.
I can’t believe that they are going to put this up for a vote without knowing for sure that it’s going to pass.
If it doesn’t pass, is Ryan’s speakership over?
Most Republicans are thinking it is better for their electoral prospects to pass anything, no matter how disastrous for the country, than to leave Obamacare in place. Therefore they will vote for AHCA despite the “Soylent Green” provision inserted to appease conservatives late last night, whereby the impecunious elderly will be turned into edible wafers.
Holy shit. Rodney Frelinghuysen is a NO on AHCA. Just announced.
He’s a moderate, and chair of the appropriations committee.
That’s a real bad sign for Paul Ryan and Donald Trump. Stay tuned.
So when do they official vote on it?
I ready around 5pm eastern.
This comment, which is absolutely accurate in our current legislative process, made me pause a bit. It seems really odd that the idea of actually voting on a bill to see who supports it is so unnatural. Isn’t that kind of the whole point of having a voting body, to vote on stuff and see who supports it? And then if it fails, go amend it some more and try again? I guess it comes down to how perception is everything these days, immediately thrown into the news cycle and discussed to death.
Wasn’t always like that, but during the 80s and early 90s we did get to a point where a failed vote either killed or back-burnered legislation so badly that disgraced former speaker Dennis Hastert instituted a new policy that has become known as the Hastert Rule: introduce no bill to a floor vote as House Speaker unless you know how that vote will go.
Today will be the first time in maybe over a decade that a Republican House Speaker has introduced a bill without knowing how it will play.
I’m so nervous about this goddamned thing today. I know that the Senate is another backstop, but I don’t want to see the Trump/Ryan agenda at all emboldened. I want to see them fail miserably.
Please, please, please, please.
The first attempt at the bailout in 2008 was the last one, I think - I only remember because I was doing some accounting for a hedge fund at the time and we were all watching as the House vote failed and the bottom fell completely out of the market. That one did come back a few days later… hopefully if this goes down, it stays dead.
For whatever reason, Trump and Ryan are selling this as the one and only chance to repeal ACA. I don’t get why really, but if it fails then I guess we’ll see.
For 2018, having Obamacare stay in place may be the best thing for most of the GOP. In areas where Obamacare is unpopular, the GOP will now have the narrative of “we tried to get rid of it, but your Democrat representative prevented us from reforming it”, allowing for an easier GOP challenge in those districts. In areas where Obamacare was seen as too helpful to get rid of, those GOP members will likely vote against it and be able to say “I stood up for your best interests”, helping to keep their seat in the 2018 race.
Passing would be a disaster for them, especially passing it in 2017. By the time we get to mid-term elections, even the areas that wanted Obamacare to be repealed/replaced would be seeing the impact of the GOP Shit Sandwich Care reforms. There would be backlash, putting all of the GOP at risk. Those that voted for it will have a Dem or Primary challenger that uses it as ammunition. Those who didn’t vote for it will have the dual joy of being seen by one side as being disloyal to the party while simultaneously still being blamed for the bill being passed (despite voting against it).
The best thing the GOP could do, for themselves, would be to pass a different version of the reforms in mid-2018 or mid-2020. They can ride the high of passing their long-promised reforms all the way to the November elections while also not having the public see the shit-storm until the next cycle. That next cycle would be painful, but they don’t worry about the future in politics.
I’m not sure how to take that. It could be nothing more than a used-car-salesman pressure tactic, or it could be an honest realization that if they can’t do it now it’s just not going to get done until Republicans have a bigger majority.