Comstock might as well vote for-- I don’t think it would change her chances in 2018. There is going to be a big Trump backlash in NoVa; her fate was pretty well sealed when Trump won the presidency.
As Harry Enten just tweeted:
“Live look at John Boehner…”
Hah, Cheeto wants a vote so he can say it wasn’t his fault Obamacare is still around. He’ll say the House GOP is weak and holding him back.
Ryan, of course, does not want the vote for that reason.
There is no way either of them benefit from losing the vote, and the GOP just looks weak and confused by not voting. I suppose if there is a vote and it loses Trump could use that in 2018 to try and run some of his “followers” but I doubt he will have that kind of pull by 2018.
Via TPM:
Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY), a key Trump ally in Congress, said part of the problem predicting Friday’s vote result is that communications have broken down among House Republicans. “I’ve never seen this. People are refusing to talk to each other. They’re storming past each other. This is not good,” he told reporters. “There is bitterness within our conference that’s going to take time to heal.”
This is a dangerous staredown between the White House and Congress. Trump just refused to blink.
Now. Does Congress? Hard to go back on a very public “NO” declaration, but still.
Dave Joyce (R-OH) just came out with a No statement:
Seriously, if this does go to a vote and then fails, the repercussions are potentially quite large, especially for an administration who may be under FBI investigation.
Matt Fuller’s whip list from last night:
Move Frelinghuysen and Comstock off the moderates who could to the definites list.
Dave Joyce isn’t even on the list. So…that’s huge.
I can’t even pretend to understand the game theory at this point (neither, I think, can the participants) but it sure seems insane that the Administration would be so actively alienating huge parts of their own party when they need the party to hold the line against any investigations.
I mean, that’s basically my thinking. In history, when a sitting president has been in some open conflict with his own party in either house, things start to go kinda pear-shaped. See: “Carter, Jimmy” for the the most recent previous example.
With the caveat of WTF Do I Know… I’m not sure this matters much to individual congressmen. Between the town-hall protests and the awful polling numbers for the AHCRA, I think they have realized that this issue may determine the who gets re-elected and who doesn’t in 2018. They’re in survival mode, and that’s a higher priority than Trump’s prospects.
I also wonder if Comey’s announcement that the Trump campaign is under investigation may have moved some votes. How much loyalty do you owe a presidency that may founder on the biggest actual scandal since Watergate?
True! But, do you think Trump knows that history, or will listen to those who do? Maybe, but I think his natural instinct is to find a scapegoat (Ryan) and change the subject (watch him announce his infrastructure plans on Monday).
“Starting” to think?
I think that’s all valid, but as Lantz points out, in this position, Trump should be wooing these folks by letting Ryan kill this and talking about how they’ll look at some changes and come back in a few months.
Right now, he’s going scorched earth, and making it easy for his party to draw some distance from him.
I think it’s the Prisoners’ Poop Dilemma. Two prisoners are each offered a poop sandwich and the first one to eat it gets another one. The loser has to eat a second poop sandwich.
Which hand do you eat the poop sandwich with?
BTW, this is a district in NE Ohio that was +3 Romney in '12 and flipped to +12 Trump.
Pretty big for him to go to NO on this.
Pretty sad we have to celebrate people not being complete assholes.
Same here. I haven’t watched one second of cable news since election night, nor have I logged into Twitter or any other social media (other than LinkedIn). I was formerly a political news junkie.
But this issue is different, as it could effect me personally in a significant way.
Is it a “no” because AHCA doesn’t help enough people, or is it “no” because AHCA is too close to Obamacare?