One MMO to rule them all

Someone has already probably linked this but … anyway …

Conqueror in a War of Virtual Worlds

“Look, Matrix Online is good, but it’s like being in the early 90’s and trying to put a fighting game up against Mortal Kombat or Street Fighter; it’s just not going to happen. There are a lot of other online games that are just sucking wind right now because so many people are playing WOW.”

“I don’t think there are four million people in the world who really want to play online games every month,” said Michael Pachter, a research analyst for Wedbush Morgan, a securities firm. “World of Warcraft is such an exception. I frankly think it’s the buzz factor, and eventually it will come back to the mean, maybe a million subscribers.”

“It may continue to grow in China,” Mr. Pachter added, “but not in Europe or the U.S. We don’t need the imaginary outlet to feel a sense of accomplishment here. It just doesn’t work in the U.S. It just doesn’t make any sense.”

Time will tell of course. I guess as long as Blizzard keeps adding content there is no reason why WoW shouldn’t continue as the premier online game.

450-500k subscribers for EQ2 worldwide, with 80% being US? I call BS.

“I don’t think there are four million people in the world who really want to play online games every month,” said Michael Pachter, a research analyst for Wedbush Morgan, a securities firm. “World of Warcraft is such an exception. I frankly think it’s the buzz factor, and eventually it will come back to the mean, maybe a million subscribers.”

“It may continue to grow in China,” Mr. Pachter added, “but not in Europe or the U.S. We don’t need the imaginary outlet to feel a sense of accomplishment here. It just doesn’t work in the U.S. It just doesn’t make any sense.”

This guy has the dumb.

Actually WoW subsriber count will come down quite fast if blizzard doesnt add new forms of content to it.

WoW basically has:

a) character developement (grind to 60)
b) Farming (materials, cash, equipment)
c) PvP (farming honor)

Yes, WoW has lots of content (lots of quests basically), and they add new content quite regularly. But problem with WoW is that new content is same ol’ farming all over again. (new instance=new items)

And problem with exsisting content is that its extremely repetitive.

But its purty. Can anyone honestly say they weren’t impressed the first time they saw the Sunken Temple of Atal’Hakkar or the Dark Portal?

I still say the exterior of Ironforge is the prettiest sight in WoW, and one of the great vistas in all videogames.

I continue to dabble in the endgame content – the odd LBRS run, Baron runs looking for Valor pants, that sort of thing – but have yet to get near the high end raid stuff and maybe never will. At the rate I’m going I’ll have my Onyxia key round about Christmas. If they add yet more high end raid dungeons I wonder if I will ever get to them, either. High level solo quests seem a bit “meh” after 60, though good gear rewards could mitigate that. Farming Frostwolf faction for the Unstoppable Force, or grinding honor for a high pvp rank, also seems uninteresting to me. So it’s questionable what sort of additional content could increase my interest beyond what is already there. Probably the best bet would be new noob zones/classes/races which would give me excuses to roll yet more alts and take them to level 20-30.

All the same, I haven’t canceled yet… :?

I too would be far far more interested in new low/mid-level content for alts, but I guess we’re in the minority. :(

Aye, Dun Morogh is beautiful. BUt I’m biased because I love snow in video games. Be that as it may, my first griffon ride from Thelsamar to Ironforge just 'bout brought tears of wonder and joy to my eyes… :roll:

Anyway, I suppose DDOnline and LotRO will draw some of the WoW crowd away–at least for a while.

And problem with exsisting content is that its extremely repetitive.

Not really. I find WoW’s content less repetitive than the other (literally) dozen MMO’s I’ve played. Some repetitiveness is just part of the genre, at least until MMO’s are based off a MUSH model instead of a DikuMUD.

And people are still playing Diablo…don’t forget d) munchkinism.

I’ve played the high-end raid content and its kind of a mixed bag. I mean, it’s a 6-10 hour commitment for a whole lot of nothing usually. 40 people means 39 chances not to get the item drops you want. Molten Core is also very freaking boring.

I was hoping this thread would be about the LOTR mmrpg. Haven’t heard anything about that for awhile.

How many people are still playing diablo 1 /2 and when was the last time they really added content? Sure its free but yeah.

they added content recently in the 1.11 patch.

I’m not sure that people quit when they run out of things to do. I don’t think that’s really been the pattern in the past with these kinds of games.

I think the players that quit tend to be the ones who don’t hit the level cap. I have no numbers to back up this - just a gut feeling.

But all these games shed players. CoH is down below 50% of their box sales. I’m sure for every active EQ player 3-4 have quit.

Still, I expect WoW to continue to grow for awhile. I think the upcoming holiday season will boost subscriptions and I expect we’ll see a lot of mainstream media coverage of the game.

WoW’s subscriber base is going to run off a cliff eventually.

As the ultra-casual players eventually hit 60 and find nothing to do except raid…

As the hardcore burn out…

As the good raiding guilds realize they’ve already run out of content… again…

I’ve played the high-end raid content and its kind of a mixed bag. I mean, it’s a 6-10 hour commitment for a whole lot of nothing usually. 40 people means 39 chances not to get the item drops you want. Molten Core is also very freaking boring.

Blackwing Lair is a much, much better dungeon than Molten Core. The problem with MC is that it’s just a whole lot of boring trash mobs with the occasional boss randomly jammed in the middle of them. BWL cuts out most of the bullshit and gives you a dungeon that is only sometimes frustrating (the Broodlord learning curve with the whelp room clears, and the Vael cockblock).

From what I’ve seen, Zul’Gurub is also much more interesting than MC.

The challenge for Blizzard will be to continue pumping out new instances that are interesting and worthwhile. I just hope they don’t fall into the “THEY MUST BE 30 MAN RAID INSTANCES” trap that they seem to be stuck in at the moment. I’d like to see some extremely difficult 5-10 man instances designed for well-geared veteran players, but I’m not holding my breath.

I do still enjoy puttering around with my 60, though. Depending on how much of a sting that $15/month is, I might be inclined to keep my subscription up for a long time.

This makes sense, but it doesn’t seem to have been the pattern in past MMOs. Players hit the cap and keep subscribing. They level alts, or do PvP, or just hang out and do a raid now and then. I don’t see why WoW would be any different, especially if the players want to play an MMO. Then their choice is to quit and start over at level one in a new MMO or keep playing WoW with their level 60 character.

It looks like it took a game like WoW to finally pry players away from EQ and DAoC. Previous to WoW they had pretty steady sub numbers. I sort of think something similar has to happen to pry away a large chunk of WoW players. It won’t be lack of content but the lure of something new and perhaps better that will get players to quit WoW.

Asher nailed it. People capped out in EQ long before the next expansion hit, yet they stuck around. Happened time and time again, with little content between expansions to keep things fresh.

Increasingly they are at least trying out the raid content. Six months ago the only guilds you would ever see in Molten Core were the few that were made up mostly of EQ veterans. Now on my server alone there are 13 different guilds/raid groups that are claiming Ragnaros kills and around double that number raiding MC regularly. Considering it takes 50-70 people to fill up a 40 man raid group on a regular basis (not everyone will always be available), my estimate is that there are something like 1500 people actively raiding MC on my server. That has to be 50% or more of the entire population of active level 60s.