That’s a fair point. My original thought was that the very long time average would be a good yardstick of future performance. It’s true he no longer produces the strip as often as he over many years used to.
It took him from August 8, 2009 to February 12, 2010 to produce strips 673-703. That’s 188 days or 6.06 days per strip.
If this is the pace the rest of the strips will come out and we assume max 671 new strips after #672 we can expect to see the conclusion by September 28, 2020 at the latest.
Now, if we start measuring comparative author performance by their latest output rate instead of the long time average we will need to estimate George Martin’s rate. Let’s be charitable and imagine book five will come out November 17, 2010, in time for the holidays but a month later in the year than book four. That’s 1,857 days for the latest novel.
Using that rate the projected seventh book would come out January 17, 2021. This is uncomfortably close to the Burlew date and I could easily be accused of choosing my estimated date in favour of Burlew. If we move up the imaginary publication date of book five to match book four, October 17, 2010, the projected series end date will be October 16, 2020.
The tardier rates point to the same conclusion. Burlew is more likely to finish his series before Martin does.[I]
This report contains forward-looking statements which are subject to inherent uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, variations in artist mood, changes in the regulatory environment of the NFL, customer preferences, general economic conditions, increased competition, the outcome of outstanding litigation, and future developments affecting literary matters. All of these are difficult to predict, and many are beyond the ability of the report author to control.
Certain statements in this report that are not historical facts, but rather reflect the author’s current expectations concerning future results and events, constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the English language. The words “believes”, “expects”, “intends”, “plans”, “anticipates”, “hopes”, “likely”, “will”, and similar expressions identify such forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that could cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the artists to differ materially from future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.
Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which reflect the author’s view only as of the date of this report. The author undertakes no obligation to update the result of any revisions to these forward-looking statements which may be made to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events, conditions or circumstances.[/I]
