Oscars 2023 - Now With Less Slapping

Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”)
Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)
Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)
Hong Chau (“The Whale”)
Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Best Animated Feature Film
“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Netflix)
“Marcel the Shell With Shoes On” (A24)
“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” (DreamWorks Animation)
“The Sea Beast” (Netflix)
“Turning Red” (Pixar)

Best Animated Short Film
“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse” (Apple TV+)
“The Flying Sailor”
“Ice Merchants”
“My Year of Dicks”
“An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It”

Best Costume Design
“Babylon” (Paramount Pictures)
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel Studios)
“Elvis” (Warner Bros)
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” (Focus Features)

Best Live Action Short
“An Irish Goodbye” (Floodlight Pictures)
“Ivalu” (M&M Productions)
“Le Pupille” (Disney+)
“Night Ride”
“The Red Suitcase” (Cynefilms)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
“The Batman” (Warner Bros.)
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel Studios)
“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
“The Whale” (A24)

Best Original Score
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Babylon”
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“The Fabelmans”

Best Sound
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)
“The Batman” (Warner Bros.)
“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)

Best Adapted Screenplay
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” (Netflix)
“Living” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
“Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)

Best Original Screenplay
“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
“The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
“Tár” (Focus Features)
“Triangle of Sadness” (Neon) “An Irish Goodbye” (Floodlight Pictures)

Best Cinematography
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths” (Netflix)
“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
“Empire of Light” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Tár” (Focus Features)

Best Documentary Feature Film
“All That Breathes” (HBO Documentary Films)
“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” (Neon)
“Fire of Love” (National Geographic Documentary Films/Neon)
“A House Made of Splinters”
“Navalny” (CNN/Warner Bros.)

Best Documentary Short Film
“The Elephant Whisperers” (Netflix)
“Haulout”
“How Do You Measure a Year?” (Jay Rosenblatt Films)
“The Martha Mitchell Effect” (Netflix)
“Stranger at the Gate”

Best Film Editing
“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
“Tár”
“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount)

Best International Feature Film
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany)
“Argentina, 1985” (Argentina)
“Close” (Belgium)
“EO” (Poland)
“The Quiet Girl” (Ireland)

Best Original Song
“Applause” from “Tell It Like a Woman”
“Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick”
“Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
“Naatu Naatu” from “RRR”
“This Is a Life” from “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Best Production Design
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)
“Babylon” (Paramount Pictures)
“Elvis” (Warner Bros)
“The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)

Best Visual Effects
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)
“The Batman” (Warner Bros.)
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel Studios)
“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures) Austin Butler (“Elvis”)

Best Lead Actor
Austin Butler (“Elvis”)
Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”)
Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”)
Bill Nighy (“Living”)

Best Lead Actress
Cate Blanchett (“Tár”)
Ana de Armas (“Blonde”)
Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”)
Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)
Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Best Director
Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)
Todd Field (“Tár”)
Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)

Best Picture
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)
“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
“The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
“Tár” (Focus Features)
“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
“Triangle of Sadness” (Neon)
“Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)

Crazy that RRR doesn’t get a Best International Feature nod, but it does get a Best Song nod.

I think Farrell is the favorite for Best Actor.

Actress is weird. Blanchett should be the fav, but she already has Best Actress and Supporting Actress Oscars. The voters may want to spread the wealth a little. Yeoh could be the sentimental favorite. Riseborough’s nomination is sort of insane. To Leslie made $27K at the box office. But there was an incredibly concerted push at the last minute by a lot of celebrities, name-dropping her performance in the past week or two.

Thrilled to see Paul Mescal recognised. :)

Skipping RRR for best foreign would be a weird snub given how much it’s been discussed this year but India didn’t nominate it. Instead they chose a smaller, sentimental film called Last Film Show, a bid that didn’t pay off. Hope EO takes it in that category.

Best Picture is probably Banshees. There could be a strong push for The Fabelmans. Everything is probably #3, and could win. Remember, the Academy uses Ranked Choice voting.

Wow, this is apparently the first time in 88 years that all Best Actor nominees are first-timers.

What’s up with Top Gun and Glass Onion being adapted screenplays?

I’m also confused by that. And that Top Gun was included in either screenplay category.

Now With Less Slapping

We don’t know that yet.

Lots of movies I haven’t heard of this time.

Let’s see, let me do some homework here on streaming services in the U.S. for these movies

Banshees of Inisherin - HBO Max
Causeway - Apple TV+
Everything Everywhere All at Once - Showtime
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Disney+ (in 1 week)
del Toro’s Pinocchio - Netflix
The Sea Beast - Netflix
Turning Red - Disney+
The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse - Apple TV+
The Flying Sailor - The New Yorker or Youtube
Ice Merchants - The New Yorker or Youtube
My Year of Dicks - Youtube
Elvis - HBO Max
Mrs Harris Goes to Paris - Peacock Premium
Le Pupille - Disney+
Night Ride - The New Yorker or Youtube
All Quiet on the Western Front - Netflix
The Batman - HBO Max
Top Gun: Maverick - Paramount+
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery - Netflix
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths - Netflix
Fire of Love - Disney+
Navalny - HBO Max
The Elephant Whisperers - Netflix
Haulout - The New Yorker or Youtube
The Martha Mitchell Effect - Netflix
Stranger at the Gate - The New Yorker or Youtube
Argentina, 1985 - Prime Video
RRR - Netflix
Blonde - Netflix

That’s all that turned up so far.

I’m guessing because they’re sequels?

Sequels. They’re based on existing material. So, adapted.

I think The Fablemans takes a bunch of awards, including Best Picture. Hollywood LOVES movies about movies, and they’re not going to deny Spielberg.

Yup.

Sequels are always “adapted screenplays” because they are adaptations of the first work.

We gonna do predictions? People often think “Academy voters love movies about movies” but I think that is not as strong of a case as it once was. Academy voters are extremely cognizant of what people think of their voting, especially after the backlash of some of the votes years ago. (looks at you Green Book) The voters want to make picks that make Hollywood look good. This may include movies about movies, but it also includes a lot of focus on storylines and headlines throughout the year. So, I see a lot of “redemption” narratives, as well as “they deserve an oscar finally” as the cause for a lot of the decision making. The Academy is also obsessed with itself and loves to have a lot of “firsts” awarded.
Brendan Frasier and Michelle Yeoh come to mind as having extremely buzz-worthy performances this year.

Ranked choice voting helps out a lot of the buzz-worthy nominations.

Best Lead Actor
Austin Butler (“Elvis”)
Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”)
Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”)
Bill Nighy (“Living”)

This one is tough, Brendan Fraser is the comeback story, while Austin Butler is the “young actor we want to recognize” these are strong storylines to vote for.

Best Lead Actress
Cate Blanchett (“Tár”)
Ana de Armas (“Blonde”)
Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”)
Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)
Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

This is a weird list. Some surprising choices here. Ana de Armas? Really? I think Michelle Yeoh has the most buzz, and the Academy will think she “deserves” it. Andrea Riseborough is a surprise, which means she is a real contender here.

Best Director
Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)
Todd Field (“Tár”)
Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)

McDonagh is one of those guys who has been nominated, never won. I expect the academy to recognize him this year. I personally think Todd Field is in the same boat, and deserves this win for Tar, but I think McDonagh has the buzz.

Best Picture
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)
“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
“The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
“Tár” (Focus Features)
“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
“Triangle of Sadness” (Neon)
“Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)

Same as with director, best picture often follows. I do see Everything Everywhere All at Once having a realistic shot here though. People have been talking up this film for nearly an entire year.

Best Adapted Screenplay
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” (Netflix)
“Living” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
“Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)

Hollywood wants to give Top Gun an award, this might be it? Nothing else stands out, Women Talking is great, but usually stories around women and abuse are unrecognized (I am glaring at the Academy and the complete snub of “Never Rarely Sometimes Always” years ago)

Best Original Screenplay
“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
“The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
“Tár” (Focus Features)
“Triangle of Sadness” (Neon) “An Irish Goodbye” (Floodlight Pictures)

This movie has a lot of buzz, and is “too weird” to win Best Picture, so it will win a screenplay award. Banshee’s is a close second.

Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”)
Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)
Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

I think that Banshees has all of the buzz at the moment, but Judd Hirsch could get a nod for his body of work, and being “due” Bryan Tyree Henry deserves plenty of awards, and I am always wary of movies that don’t get a lot of nominations except for an acting one, that usually means the performance was particularly notable and memorable.

Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)
Hong Chau (“The Whale”)
Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Angela Bassett is “due”

I don’t think I’ve ever rooted as hard for an Oscar win than I am for Ke Huy Quan to get Best Supporting Actor.

Is it me, or is Best Supporting Actor particularly stacked this year? I really hope Ke Huy Quan’s momentum carries it for him, but it could break a lot of ways.

The categories that I care most about are the ones where EEAAO is competing, because in my heart I want it to win everything (everywhere). But I bet Fabelmans is most likely to win Picture. And I’d bet on Angela Bassett in Supporting Actress, although I’d like Stephanie Hsu or maybe Kerry Condon.

The Daniels deserve Screenplay, though that’s plenty competitive too. I wish they’d been recognized for Production Design and Effects, but I’ll be happy if they take Editing, which seems fairly likely.

I think I’ll be actively upset if Michelle Yeoh doesn’t win.

Anyone see any of the nominated docs and want to recommend one?

I would be completely chuffed if EEAAO won a ton of awards. It was incredible film-making, inventive story-telling, effects, writing etc… with great performances by everyone involved. Basically just an excellent and memorable film that will be a cult favorite for years to come. Might be my personal favorite of the year. It got to be weird and fun, and that is something that the Academy often doesn’t recognize, so I am worried that it might not get serious looks by a lot of the older voting blocs of the Academy.

A24 is becoming a strong contender for shops with a lot of Oscar cred, and I expect they are making big pushes for Michelle Yeoh and the film this year. I definitely think it has a shot to sweep a lot of categories.

Another thing to have hope of EEAAO winning a lot of awards, the sheer amount of acting nominations (4) that the film got. That means a lot of voters were thinking of that film.

I’m surprised Babylon didn’t get more nominations, considering the “movies about Hollywood” factor.

I think that “movies about hollywood” is not something that gets you a nomination or award, is broader than that. The “movies about Hollywood” is just a symptom of the Academy being very full of itself. They like to give nominations and awards that make them look good. So, movies about movies often get thought of highly. But, what also gets the Academy though of highly is “first time” awards, or awards for performances about social issues. I mean, Kate Winslet joked in “Extras” she needed to do a movie about the holocaust to win an Oscar. and well…

Babylon wasn’t particularly well received with loads of praise, and Fablemans is already the “movie about movies” that was more well received, so I think voters thought about that one first.

I’m so deeply upset that a movie with as cool a name as The Banshees of Inisherin just a boring old talking movie about two dudes feeling feelings.

The real banshees were the friends we met along the way.