To be fair, the nine-year-old did conduct “real science”. He did research and came up with data-points based on the best available information he (or anyone, really) had at hand.
He called three major straw manufacturers (the closest thing available as experts) and asked for their guestimates as to the US market. He then averaged those three values to reduce the “noise” and come up with a reasonable figure. That figure was half a billion straws a day.
Reason magazine, which disputes his numbers, merely disputes them by engaging in their own guestimating. They contacted their own expert, in this case a marketing agency that deals with the “disposable food service packaging”. This (single!) agency admits that they don’t survey all the straw manufacturers - only the ones that package for big restaurants - but they believe that they have a view into 95 percent of of the straw market. They put the number at somewhere around 175 million a day; about a third of the kid’s number.
So what you have here are four data-points, though Reason says that the nine-year-old’s only count as one for some… reason.
Personally, having read through Reason’s… reasoning… I actually think their number is the probably far more conservative than it should be. Their marketing firm basically hand-waves away all straws that are not packaged for restaurants as inconsequential, which strikes me as silly. Not only are there plenty of straws used at home (even my straw-averse household has a bin of straws on the counter), but there are uncountable mom-and-pop restaurants that pick up wholesale straws at COSTCO or similar places for use in their establishments. [According to NPD, 55% of US restaurants are independants.]
I also suspect that their definition of “straw” is fairly lacking. For instance, there are the vast number of straws created for the juice-box market; those tiny things glued to the sides that you use to puncture the top. How many of the 65 million school-kids in the US drink at least one of those a day? How many adults? I tried to find an answer and the closest I could come up with is that 23% of Americans (~80 million) drink at least one serving of fruit juice each day. If we guess that only half of those are from the disposable cartons (which I feel is a lowball guess), then that’s 40 million additional straws, a 22% increase over Reason’s guesstimate.
So yeah, scoff at the nine-year-old’s stats, but until someone actually comes up with actual, reproducible, data, his high numbers are about as good as Reason’s lower number.
Incidentally, one of the Reason articles does provide some evidence for the larger-than-expected incidence of straws in the ocean as a percentage of all trash:
More important than how many straws Americans use each day is how many wind up in waterways. We don’t know that figure either. The closest we have is the number of straws collected by the California Costal Commission during its annual Coastal Cleanup Day: a total of 835,425 straws and stirrers since 1988, or about 4.1 percent of debris collected.
I get the impression they thought that the 4.1% would sound low, but that’s actually a very large amount when you squint at the numbers and conclude that the number of straws collected are larger than the number of cups that would require a straw that were also recovered (rolled into the cups/plates/utensils category: 5.2%).