Post your expert predictions for Iraq war

Rapid unraveling of Hussein regime, within days if not hours of hostilities…rejoicing in streets of Baghdad…“Arab street” largely indifferent…overall vibe comparable to 1989 Panama intervention…French grouse.

Pretty much, yeah.

Bush keeps pussyfooting around with the situation until someone quietly removes Saddam from power, solving Bush’s problem for him. Bush goes on to threaten some other country who may or may not be guilty of developing weapons of mass destruction.

Ten years later, Saddam and Bin Laden show up on a special terrorist celebrity edition of “Where are they now?”

The UN doing everything they can to protect the current situation in Iraq just to show Bush that he isn’t an Emperor.

American forces encounter stiffer than expected resistance, and they find themselves too outnumbered.

Iraq pays a heavy price in the air war but it’s not a decisive victory this time around. The conflict spawns significant protests from neighboring Arab nations and some, particularly Syria and Saudi Arabia, will clandestinely support Iraq. Iran may encourage Shiite rebellions to topple Hussein and resist the Americans.

In an attempt to gain at least one major internal supporter, the US will back the Kurds and possibly alienate Turkey. More likely, the US invasion with a Saddam-removal guarantee will set off a (truly) spontaneous Kurdish rebellion in the North of Iraq which will spill over into Turkey. The Turks won’t be pleased, and the rebellion might just give political momentum to the more radical religious elements in the country.

There is basically only one ultimate conclusion to this - the drop of US influence worldwide. Whether or not they win in the Gulf, it’s a loss in the end. Controlling Iraq will cause too much resentment of US power, and Bush isn’t fooling anybody by portraying Saddam as the next Stalin. Iraq is hardly a threat of Soviet proportions, Europeans aren’t buying it and neither is the rest of the world. If the US loses the war, well, this will have more worldwide backlash than Vietnam. A re-invasion won’t be possible (or at least advisable), since a US defeat will rally Arab states (even give nominal Iranian support) around Iraq. Kuwait will be fucked.

Numerous casualties compared to last time.

Use of chemical and other weapons against neighboring countries.

Even less resolve among Iraqi troops than last time.

Hundreds of dead westerners, tens of thousands of dead iraquis.

Domestic terrorism in US and other countries increases exponentially due to the rallying cry of the Great Satan invading the middle east.

If Saddam is even killed, he becomes hailed as a martyr.

Iraqi military falls apart faster than it did in 1990. It’s smaller, weaker, and nowhere near as dangerous as it was in 1990. It has been denied spare parts for its tanks for over a decade… it hasn’t really practiced or excercised for that long. (A lot of military observers noted that when Saddam announced he was immediately repositioning one of his divisions to guard Baghdad that it took more than two weeks for that division to execute the move, even though the distance involved was relatively miniscule.) Iraqi air power was a joke in the last war and won’t even bother showing up for this one. And, Desert Storm showed the total lack of morale that their conscript-laden army had. They won’t want to die for Saddam this time, either.

By comparison, the US military is a lot more lethal. Yes, it will be a smaller force, but it will be a much more lethal one. We’ve incorporated precision and information networking into our war-fighting doctrine to a degree that was unimaginable 10 years ago. For example: a single B-52 bomber can now provide close air support to troops on the ground, even if it’s cruising at 40,000 feet; we showed that in Afghanistan. Our equipment is better than it was from the last war, especially our night vision equipment. I imagine a lot of our assaults will take place at night. Any ground unit that attempts to engage our units in the open desert will be immediately detected and annihilated by airpower and artillery. Urban combat is trickier, but I do think that we’ll draw a ring around Baghdad and let the Iraqi military do the job of actually turning on Saddam. Give them an offer they can’t refuse: you get to live if you bring in Saddam’s head.

There will be some of the Republican Guard that will fight to the death, cause they’ve got no choice. They’ll be the first ones to get lined up and shot by the population they’ve been terrorizing and oppressing for decades. Those units will need to be crushed, but we can do that.

Here’s a thing you gotta know about Europeans. They’ll bitch, but they’ll go along with it 'cause they’ve got no choice. And, secretly, they’ll admit the US was right. They won’t like that fact, and they won’t admit it, but secretly they’ll admit that getting rid of Saddam is a good thing.

As for the Arab street, the liberation of Kabul showed anything, it’s that once the 24-hour news channels start broadcasting live satellite feed of millions of happy liberated people, it’s time for them to shut the hell up.

In case you haven’t already seen it.

Oh, and it’s not as if Al Queda is going to use the Iraqi invasion as a reason to strike against America. They’ll just use it as an excuse, but they’re ALREADY TRYING TO STRIKE AMERICA, folks. What the hell was 9/11? Or our embassies in Africa? Or the Cole?

Whether we invade Iraq or not, Al Queda will still look to strike America. Don’t pretend that if we don’t invade Iraq that Al Queda will leave us alone.

Of course not. But they’ll have far less trouble finding young idiots to blow themselves up for the cause with the rallying cry they’ll have after the Americans invade Iraq.

Maybe Nostrodomus was right? War with Iraq could lead to bigger conflicts and ultimatley we could be looking at WW3. He did say that 2 man made towers will fall, and this will lead to a war with the man who wears the turbin.

:shock:

The British Royal Navy plays a pivotal role in blockading continental Europe to prevent Germany from intervening to assist Saddam.

France will surrender, and then realize that no one is actually invading them. They quickly un-surrender before anyone notices.

AIM, I asked for expert opinions, not those of fucking idiots.

The “Nostradamus 9/11 prediction” has been debunked in numerous forums, the most concise being here http://www.urbanlegends.com/ulz/nostradamus.html

…or another Somalia?

This is going to be urban combat folks. It is highly unlikely that US forces are ready for that - without serious casualties.

Here’s my prediction:

I’m going to be working a lot more because one of my assistants is about to get activated.

Expert opinions? please…

In fact, I’ve read a couple of your post and Your a fukin racist! Just admit it. The reason you don’t have a registered account is because your a racist, POS.

have a nice day. :D

Expert opinions? Bah.

If someone viewing this board is a CIA operative, white house staffer, or holds a similar position with access to intelligence on Iraq, could you please speak up now? Oh, I’m sorry, you don’t want to reveal yourself to the public and/or you’ve never heard of QT3? So sorry, We’ll have to make do with guesses from a scarcely informed public then.

Please keep the predictions coming. Again, expert predictions only, please.

He’s just looking for a way to get out of paying his credit cards.