These things matter. The tide is moving in only one direction - away from Trump. He has been bleeding support steadily pretty much since he assumed office. But now we’re seeing the members of his two councils, hosts of Fox News shows, even elected officials - folks who answer to constituencies and have done the math that it’s more costly to stand with Trump rather than speak out against him - they’re starting to abandon him.
Now think about the future, even just the near term. Do you see this trend reversing? What would Trump need to do to reverse this trend? Behave presidentially, stop tweeting, try to provide moral leadership - essentially not be Trump. It’s slipping away from him, and all these little actions, these resistances are helping. It can’t be soon enough, definitely, but the ship is trying to right itself.
It saddens me that the default position on politicians is that they have absolutely no moral compass and calculate every choice by whether it will provide a net gain or loss in votes.
With the whiff of optimism in the air, I decided to take a peek at some comments on a local news site covering all the Trump crap over the last few days.
Hypothetically speaking, I would seriously like to figure out what he could do (if there is anything) that would sway his base.
But that’s why I say things are looking up. In order to stay in office, these people are largely answering to folks who voted for Trump. If they believe they can criticize Trump, even question his competence, then they already believe their constituents are shifting as well.
… As I said in the other thread, I interpreted Corker’s statement as, “The clock is now ticking on Congressional action.” (Though he used 25th Amendment language, which also requires buy-in from Pence and half the Cabinet.)
But yeah, it’s not clear what action the Trump Administration could actually take to fix the problem other than by having Trump resign (ha!)
They already tried a staff shake-up. It made things worse.
One thing to consider, although I have no evidence to support this, is that if the Russian investigation was starting to yield fruit and bad stuff was starting to show up, you’d start to see the GOP distance themselves from him like this.
On some level, I’m skeptical as to why this thing with the Nazis would suddenly be what changed their mind about this. But it does offer a convenient off ramp.
My view is that it is pretty obvious from the overall pattern of behavior that Trump does in fact have serious wrongdoing to hide (probably facilitation of money laundering or something along those lines). It is also pretty clear to those who understand how legal investigation works that Mueller is on the trail and will very likely find evidence of that wrongdoing. And even for Congressional Republicans, who don’t want this to be true, I think they’ve known this for some time, probably since Trump fired Comey.
However, 2 things have stopped Republicans from distancing themselves from Trump prior to now: 1)they were hoping that Trump would be a useful tool to enact their agenda and his popularity with the GOP base would facilitate keeping recalcitrant GOPers in line, and 2)they feared the Republican base, which still supports Trump, more than they feared defeat in a general elections.
I believe #1 has been eroding for some time, since the initial House Obamacare fail, and worsened after the recent Senate Obamacare fail plus Trump tantrum. One of the main things the GOP wants to accomplish this term is tax cuts and right now all the Trump chaff is getting in the way. I think the CEOs bailing on Trump is a sign that the GOP donor pool and the business community in general is beginning to consider Trump more of a liability than a benefit.
#2 is where the real question is at in my mind. I believe that until the threat of the base bouncing incumbents with primary challenges falls below the threat of losing the general election, the GOP in Congress will clutch their pearls about Trump but do nothing meaningful. However, we are seeing a slight weakening of Trump support in the GOP base, and also some erosion of the numbers of voters who identify as GOP.
I don’t believe an inflection point is definitely near as there are many variables. But I believe an inflection point is probably inevitable at this point for the simple reason that Trump cannot ever stop being Trump and thus he can never stop the steady weakening of #1, to the point where eventually the calculus in #2 (threat of defeat in the general election) shifts. Even if Trump continues to hold firm on #2, I believe the continuous cavalcade of chaos in the White House will weaken #1 to the point that it tips the GOP in Congress against Trump. Also, even though the base may well shrug off the results of Mueller’s investigation, when Mueller comes forward with strong evidence of serious wrongdoing, it’s going to drive more and more CEOs and business types away from Trump.
Trump can’t stop being Trump, so in the long-ish term it’s inevitable that the GOP will turn on him.
Good lord. I’d heard of the Tulsa race riot of 1921, which was pretty bad (citizens bombed by dynamite from planes! Dozens or maybe hundreds killed!) but hadn’t heard of the Tulsa Outrage before.
James Murdoch (FOXA CEO) pledged $1 mill to the Anti-Defamation League today and had this to say about it:
[W]hat we watched this last week in Charlottesville and the reaction to it by the President of the United States concern all of us as Americans and free people,
[…]
I can’t even believe I have to write this: standing up to Nazis is essential; there are no good Nazis. Or Klansmen, or terrorists,” Murdoch said in his note. “Democrats, Republicans, and others must all agree on this, and it compromises nothing for them to do so.
