3162

538 has a pretty neat tool to let you play around with demographics/turnout and percentages:

How the Swing-O-Matic works: We started with the results of the 2012 election and the support for each party’s candidate by the five demographic groups. We then adjusted the size of those groups based on four years of population change. When you adjust the vote and turnout above, our model recalculates the results for each state — as well as the Electoral College outcome and the national popular vote — taking into account how much of the state’s electorate the group accounts for.

3163

And a bit more from 538 - Role Playing a round table on Trump’s chances:

Trumpfan1959: It seems to me that you have no idea what’s going to happen — maybe there’s zero empirical evidence that candidates like Trump can win, but there’s just as much evidence that candidates like Trump CAN’T win. Trump is dominating the race, media and polls. How is that not the best position to be in?

natesilver: Let me turn this around a bit. You both seem to be placing a lot of emphasis on Trump’s polls. I don’t think they mean very much.

Trumpfan1959: If Marco Rubio were winning, you’d be citing the polls all the time. You just don’t like what they show.

natesilver: Dude, this isn’t complicated. Go back and look at past polling frontrunners at this stage of the campaign. They have a poor track record. By contrast, go back and look at who was leading in general elections in late October. They have a very good track record.

The point of being empirical isn’t that you love polls. It’s that you learn from experience, and our experience tells us that polls aren’t reliable predictors at this stage of the race.

3164

Good to know that a prospective commander in chief is a staunch believer of murder.

Plus, I think we should extent this policy to serious crimes. “Your cousin-twice removed committed murder? Death for you too my friend.”

3165

Is it really surprising? It’s just another fascist policy extracted straight from the Nazi regime.

3166

In all honesty it is surprising. I could see a tough guy angle that we should care less about collateral damage when taking these guys out, but to purposefully go after their families if they aren’t involved is kind of out there.

Also, straight out of swordfish:

Stanley: War? Who are we at war with?
Gabriel: Anyone who impinges on America’s freedom. Terrorist states, Stanley. Someone must bring their war to them. They bomb a church, we bomb ten. They hijack a plane, we take out an airport. They execute American tourists, we tactically nuke an entire city. Our job is to make terrorism so horrific that it becomes unthinkable to attack Americans.

I’d be lying if the idea did not have some small pull to it. Kind of like that saying (whether true or not) that a Roman could walk throughout the lands because if someone touched him, his nation would massacre everyone involved.

3167

Yeah, Trump says crazy crap 24/7, but this is straight-up advocating a war crime.

3168

Also it’s expressly prohibited in the constitution.

3169

First comes the angry rants about the liberal media spinning his statement. Then comes the I didn’t really mean it that way. Five days later, why are we still talking about this, we (really Trump) should move on.

3170

Yeah, this is one of the things that enrages me to no end about this segment of the population.

These people claim to have some deep respect for the founding principles of our nation, and for the Constitution. And yet it becomes immediately obvious that they have not even the slightest understanding of any of it.

3171

Seems about par for the course, considering the same tends to hold true for the other literature that a large subset holds sacred.

3172

Seems about par for the course, considering the same tends to hold true for the other literature that a large subset holds sacred.

3173

Trump is unstoppable.

Donald Trump is the top choice of more than one out of every three Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters, according to the results of a new CNN/ORC poll released Friday. And it’s not even close — at 36 percent, Trump’s closest competitor for the GOP presidential nomination is Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, at 16 percent.

A majority of 52 percent said Trump has the best shot of any GOP candidate to win the general election in November, while a plurality of 42 percent said he would be most effective at solving issues facing the United States, and another 37 percent said he would be the best candidate to handle the responsibilities that come with being commander in chief.

3174

I still wonder if Trump is even aware of the limitations of the job. Do you think he thinks he could just make imperial decrees for everything he wants? I also wonder if he knows that if elected he would have to take a complete hands off approach to his business interests.

3175

“I’m gonna get people jobs and I’m going to protect people. And that’s why whenever there’s a tragedy, everything goes up, my numbers go way up because we have no strength in this country, we have weak, sad politicians.”

3176

None of this shit is even going through his head. He’s simply not thinking any of this stuff through.
Some folks say, “Oh, he isn’t really this stupid. It’s all an act. He couldn’t be such a successful businessman if he was an imbecile.”

Oh yeah? You can totally be a successful casino owner if you have a dad who can just walk in and buy millions of dollars in chips when your business moves fail. At this point, Trump himself isn’t actually DOING stuff to run the corporation. He’s basically a figurehead.

And he most definitely IS a fucking imbecile. I absolutely do not buy the idea that it’s some kind of act. I think he’s just used to saying stupid shit and having no one call him on it.

3177

Way late to the party here and probably should just let it pass, not to mention that i certainly don’t need to speak for John - but from my point of view, if the fringe element destroyed my party I’d be pissed off too.

Republicans don’t even bother to make their case any longer. If you think big government is not an efficient mechanism for addressing economic/social issues, then make that argument. Instead all they offer are never ending platitudes without merit: Bluh bluh bluh big government bluh bluh bluh pro growth bluh bluh bluh freedom bluh bluh bluh takers, etc ad vomitis… And those are the so called moderates. Worse the freaking Democrats let themselves get bullied on issues like crime, defense, national security and civil liberties.

I could go on here but I’ll spare everyone the rant. Gotta get back to EU IV. <g>

3178

Several years ago we had a housing development here that was being built around a Jack Nicklaus Signature Golf course. Not just by Nicklaus’s company but by his design, he would fly out here and walk the grounds. Before the course was half built the developer had landed a PGA Tour stop, in the fall, with a sponsor and everything. Then the developer got busted for basically doing the whole thing as a Ponzi Scheme. The building stopped, bankruptcy was declared, the course work finished.

Trump’s daughter came out here for a look, and then the Donald himself. He tried to run a plan through the city, lenders, lien holders etc and take over the development as fast as he could. Well, the city said no and I think the lien holders laughed at him. But it was the Donald who thought he could force a deal to get what he wanted.

By the way…that property is now an almond orchard.

3179

What uses more of your state’s precious water, a golf course or an almond orchard?

3180

Well, golf has no merrit what so ever.

3181

A FB friend linked to a Robert Reich convo he claims to have had this morning with a Republican insider friend, who says his party is now officially Crumped (Trump + Cruz), that there are even those who want to see them on the same ticket together, that even Bernie could beat that combo in a general election. I had to laugh at the Crumped ‘amalgam’.