Tim_N
3723
That should hopefully demolish the two theories we commonly see (even here): that Trump supporters believe that Trump won’t actually follow through with this stuff and that’s why they can stomach him, or that they are single issue voters about him not being able to be bought. Most of them eat up his most extreme positions, which makes sense otherwise they’d be supporting one of the other clowns.
I don’t think I’d ever call anyone who posts in P&R ‘most people’. :-P
ShivaX
3725
Was just thinking the same thing.
There is another explaination which is that polls are basically worthless at predicting anything at this point.
If you look at PPP website. " PPP performs automated telephone surveys using Interactive Voice Response (IVR)."
As was reported recently on the PBS Newshour, and discussed on various blogs about polling. It is illegal to use an automated dailer to dial cellphones (FCC regulation eveidently). So the entire sample size of this poll was people who still own landlines, will answer phone calls from strangers, will actually listen and respond to a computer asking them 40 questions.
Frankly, I find anyone who does this to be weirder than supporting Trump’s crazy proposals.
To me a more interesting and predictive thing is the election betting site which recently have a better track record than polls.
Currently according to Predictwise, Trump is in 3rd place behind Rubio and Cruz,
Wow – No talk at all about the Sanders DNC kerfuffle?
My take is that the Sanders staffer definitely got caught with his hand in the cookie jar. He says he was just trying to establish the extent of the breach but I’m not sure I buy that. Nevertheless, he was fired and they will fire anyone else who they find participated.
The response by the DNC, however, just absolutely cements what we’ve known all along which is that Clinton is their candidate and they just want Sanders to go away. Limiting the debates to three and burying them on nights when no one will watch was transparent enough but denying he Sanders campaign access to their own data is just fucking scummy. They say it’s to protect the data but if that’s the case why haven’t they suspended all campaign’s access equally?
In the end, it cements everything I hate about Clinton. She and her people will do whatever it takes to get elected. The whole process is undemocratic and the level of presumptuousness is, just like it was in 2008, intolerable.
Very possible. For now, the media is happy to go along, because Trump in 1st place is a lot better for business than Trump in 3rd.
That said, even third is crazy, because that’s still a fair chunk of crazies in the R column.
Nesrie
3729
I answer surveys. I write to my congressmen and women. I fill out petitions. I vote… all of those put me in a minority block. I do not, however, have a landline.
It is hard to say how bad it is. Depending on who you believe, the sanders campaign was using hillary’s data to target larger campaign activities. If that is true (and we’re not sure it is i think), then it had to have at least mid level involvement, if not higher.
I could see some employees noticing the open door and just messing around, but i think what they could do with the data is limited unless they bring in other people.
As a Democrat this stuff is embarrassing though. I’m fully happy with the Republican primary battle being a clown circus, i don’t need ours to be, especially when there is basically no chance Hillary will not win the nomination.
Also, as a software engineer i don’t understand why the DMC controls the data. At my work we never want to let other people see our data, much less give them full control over it. Is it just so they don’t have to pay the hardware/support costs?
I don’t believe this is Hillary’s fault, and i also don’t believe it helps her. This whole scandal makes it look like a conspiracy to crown her even though Sanders had no chance to win in the first place. She has nothing to gain from crushing him this way and everything to lose. You do NOT want to piss off Sanders fans. As a complete political novice, i’d say it would help her later on if she stood by his side.
I think it is still pretty early on Sander’s data scandal. I understand why Hillary’s campaign would be upset. The punishment certainly is pretty severe, although it was not clear if access to the master database is permanently or just temporarily restricted.
However, the debate scheduling is pretty obviously designed to help Hillary (she is actually a good debater and won the first one IMO so she doesn’t need the help).
Saturday before Xmas, I’d imagine that has to be one of the most popular times to have a party.
I’d waiting for them to schedule the next debate during the Superbowl.
I think it is still pretty early on Sander’s data scandal. I understand why Hillary’s campaign would be upset. The punishment certainly is pretty severe, although it was clear if access to the master database is permanently or just temporarily restricted.
However, the debate scheduling is pretty obviously designed to help Hillary (she is actually a good debater and won the first one IMO so she doesn’t need the help).
Saturday before Xmas, I’d imagine that has to be one of the most popular times to have a party.
I’d waiting for them to schedule the next debate during the Superbowl.
I’ve done the same and dropped the landline. But when I find myself talking to a computer on the phone, I hang up. Unless it is from my bank telling me there is a problem with my credit card or something like that.
This recent Newshour segment on polling is eye-opening.
LEE MIRINGOFF: Good scientific, rigorous polls have become more difficult. They have become more expensive. And, unfortunately, we also have seen a proliferation of lower-quality polls that also get picked up in the media. So, for the public as a whole, it gets a little confused trying to sort out all the numbers.
BILL MCINTURFF: In bad polls that I have seen, and mostly in a partisan setting, they interview anybody who answers the phone. Well, guess who answers the phone now? It’s all people over 50.
BILL MCINTURFF: But if you’re a local news organization, and someone says, hey, I can give you a headline for literally $5,000 or $7,000 for a poll, compared to our telling you, wow, that’s just going to be the interviewing cost for just a little fraction, that’s — I mean, we have had an explosion of that kind of polling.
After learning of this, I did some spot checking of the more outrageous poll claims regarding how dumb Trump supporters are and on the other side, the political correctness gone crazy. In the handful of cases, I check they were all done by low-quality polling organization. Essentially polls done as click bait for a website.
Roughly 1/2 the population has an IQ below 100, but only 2% have IQs below 70. So while I know there are plenty of really dumb people and some smart people who believe dumb things, it pays to be suspicious of polls that show a high percentage of people are morons.
Nesrie
3734
Well it’s true. Polling isn’t an art, it’s a science if you do it correctly. You can get polls to reflect what you want. And while it’s no random sampling, the guy that screamed burn him at a Trump rally, that wasn’t made up. It should have been a lot more shocking than it was too.
Alstein
3735
A good numbers of my Sanders-supporting friends are now saying they’ll vote against Hillary in the general if it’s Trump. They won’t vote for an establishment Republican- but they’re willing to vote for chaos- thinking it will lead to the change they want in 4 years. They’re that angry and fed up with the mainstream Dems.
If Hillary and that idiot DWS aren’t careful they’re going to cause the Coffee party for real.
That was the thinking of Nader supporters back in 2000, and that got us W., which lead to Obama. And if Obama isn’t liberal enough for them and they think they need an even bigger mess to get a “true liberal” in office, fuck those people. They think they want chaos, but they have no idea what chaos really means. If you think 2 wars, a global economy teetering on the brink, and everything else wasn’t chaotic enough, fuck those people.
Yeah, pissed off as I am, I will vote for Hilary over fascism 100 times out of 100. And so will any other sane moderate or liberal.
Sanders is suing the DNC for access to his campaign’s data and hopefully to win the support of Democrats who are pissed off at the DNC for carrying Hilary’s water. Let the fucking voters decide who the candidate will be. (This is not excusing whatever actions his staffers took. It’s just to say that Wasserman was overjoyed to have an excuse to shut them down.)
Nick Corasaniti @NYTnickc
JUST IN: From Sanders campaign: access to voter files will be restored Saturday morning.
Wasserman-Schultz needs to quit. It’s too fucking obvious she’s in the bag for one side. Not good for the #brand.
Oghier
3739
How would you punish the Sanders campaign breaking into a private Clinton database? Especially when they did it multiple times, executed a bunch of searches and downloaded confidential information?
This isn’t over nothing. I’m not a particular fan of Wasserman-Schultz, but she had to react.
I’d start with looking into how my crack computer security team allowed a “glitch” in the “firewall” to exist in the first place.
Seriously, what does that even mean? If it’s so fucking important, how can a patch cause an apparent total breach? There should be complete separation between the two campaign’s data.
Oghier
3741
Yeah, of course. But isn’t this a very old argument? Don’t we all generally agree that security lapses never excuse theft.
I like Bernie. If I think he can win, I’ll vote for him when my state comes up. But this is serious.
