5842

Yep. If Trump wins the nomination, the Democrats already have their oppo research ready to go - it’s going to be ‘scorched Earth’ according to one article. They won’t have the same hesitancy that Republicans have ("oh noes if Donald wins he’ll be mean to us!) Rubio is trying to go the ridicule route now, but he sounds like the ubiquitous internet 12 year old: “He peed his pants. He should sue whoever did that to his face.” Yeah, that’s going to work.

5843

I agree – it can’t work, not this late in the game. Given how much publicity the campaign has had so far and Trump’s celebrity status, there are few potential voters who do not already have a strong opinion of him. Nobody’s deciding today whether to support Trump next Tuesday. They’re already for him or against him, committed either way. Attacks on Trump will run right into a wall of confirmation bias.

5844

Here’s why I think it may work:

  1. For the folks who trump appeals to, it’s EXACTLY the kind of thing that works. It’s been the basis of Trump’s entire campaign.
  2. it gets Rubio in the limelight. The media freaking LOVES it. Again, this is the basis of Trump’s campaign, and it works, because the media had no shame at all.
  3. for everyone else in the Republican party, at this point they just want someone to give Trump a taste of his own medicine. So they are going to give a pass on judging whether it’s mature and poised. That was what prevented folks from going after him like this before, but everyone pretty much agrees that such hesitation was a mistake.
  4. it freaking works on trump. It’s the only thing that rattles him, attacking his ego itself. Because it’s all he is.
5845

There is still 10-20% of the electorate who haven’t made up there mind, and even with the higher turn out this cycle, close to 1/2 the elecorate will stay home.

While, I agree that logically it shouldn’t work, applying logic to this election is pointless.

5846

There is still the fact that the only real thing someone needs to beat trump is consolidation of the non trump vote.

If you can get into the news, that can directly impact that. Getting in a slapfight with trump will do it.

5847

I’m switching my vote March 8th vote to Rubio (despite real misgiving about the guy and strong preference for a governor) because A. he is going after Trump and that makes me happy B. consolidation is the only hope. and C. Hillary is a really weak candidate and Trump may beat her.

5848

I can understand the emotional appeal of what Trump is saying, to a certain segment of the electorate. But even a moment’s reflection would underscore how futile such goals, not to mention the methods (if even specified) are. It’s a global economy. We rely on the global economy. You can’t force business to lose money, and losing money was why they went overseas in the first place. Not to mention that most Americans demonstrated long ago that they only wanted manufacturing jobs if they were secure (unionized), high-paying, and stuffed with fat pension plans. Which is why the jobs left, because…globalization, and the availability of cheap labor elsewhere in the global market.

The only way Trump’s ideas make even a modicum of sense is if you are sort of resurrecting the dream of autarky on a scale that rivaled the worst states in modern history (and those turned to military expansion to gain the resources to allow autarky).

Yeah, yeah, I know, this is not about calculation but about the gut, but one of the reasons we’re not, say, lemurs is that we use reason to override the gut. Sometimes.

5849

I had a really interesting conversation with my mother today - she asked me who I was going to vote for in the Virginia primary, and I said probably Hillary.

She looked at me like I was nuts… but not because she doesn’t like Hillary. She asked why the hell ANYONE would bother voting on the Democratic primary this Tuesday (in Virginia you can vote on either side but not both) – she was only interested in which GOP candidate I thought had the best chance of knocking Trump out of the game.

The problem is… in Virginia, in order to vote in the GOP primary you have to sign a document where you swear that you are a Republican. The fabled “loyalty oath”. And I’m not sure that I want to perjure myself – it’s not like there is any actual legal issues, but I do have a certain amount of honor. Plus I’m concerned that I’ll get on the GOP’s mailing list, which would suck massive elephant balls.

5850

Thanks for this bit. This is the first time I’ve been able to understand what anyone could possibly see in him, and I can almost sympathize with how they could latch on to this one piece of hope and block out all the rest of the crazy because of it.

5851

Could Trump actually beat Hillary?

5852

I can tell you from experience: DON’T! You will be on every Republican mailing list, email list, and anything else for any candidate from dog catcher on up for the next 5-10 years.

5853

Probably not. Both have net negatives in popularity, but his are off the charts.

And it’s tough to see what states he’d put in play to get to 270.

5854

The danger is any external factor. China’s economy implodes and drags the entire world into recession. Islamic militants launch a high-profile terror attack, particularly inside the United States, etc.

5855

Hence the “probably”.

I never say never. But all things being equal, Trump’s candidacy may force the Republicans to play defense in a place like Texas, of all things.

5856

It is a tough field, but we have literally zero data on how Trump will pivot during the general election. I’m done underestimating the craftiness of Trump and his campaign. At this point, I’ll believe anything.

5857

I agree. Barring external factors, Clinton should handily win even in this “new politics” environment. However, nobody can control the global environment.

5858

Completely not true: http://elections.virginia.gov/ It got rescinded by the Republican Party of Virginia after Trump cast a harsh light on it last year. I’m in Virginia and I’m going to vote in the GOP primary to stop Trumpageddon as well.

5859

I think he could. She is a real weak candidate, and he is going to hammer her on the emails, which while they don’t matter to Democrats do to Republicans and somewhat matter to independents.

Bernie has forced her to move well to the left of the country, socialist is still a dirty word in most of the country. All the battleground states in 2012 are still up for play in 2016 and if you compare Trumps turn out in NH and NV vs Hillary there is real reason to be concerned.

Christie is permanently on my shit list for endorsing Trump before the race was decided. But if the Republican establishment tells the base, “vote against Hillary” many may do just that.

Will all the young Bernie supporters still trudge to the polls to vote for Hillary, after Donald promises them free college, jobs, jobs, and he’ll negotiate with the banks to make sure they get a tremendous deal on their loans? Maybe but I really wish you guys had a somebody stronger right now.

5860

It’s not that much of a pivot for Trump to go left economically in the general. Even now his message is essentially telling people that the super rich and the politicians are screwing them over because they don’t care about their jobs and just want to make of profit. And he’s going to do whatever it takes to stop that. That’s so unlike any other Republicans take on the topic, where they’d just say we need to let the free market fix everything.

Imagine giving this advice to a Republican presidential candidate:

What if you dropped all this leftover 19th-century piety about the free market and promised to fight the elites who were selling out American jobs? What if you just stopped talking about reforming Medicare and Social Security and instead said that the elites were failing to deliver better health care at a reasonable price? What if, instead of vainly talking about restoring the place of religion in society — something that appeals only to a narrow slice of Middle America — you simply promised to restore the Middle American core — the economic and cultural losers of globalization — to their rightful place in America? What if you said you would restore them as the chief clients of the American state under your watch, being mindful of their interests when regulating the economy or negotiating trade deals?

There are a number of Americans who are losers from a process of economic globalization that enriches a transnational global elite. These Middle Americans see jobs disappearing to Asia and increased competition from immigrants. Most of them feel threatened by cultural liberalism, at least the type that sees Middle Americans as loathsome white bigots. [B]But they are also threatened by conservatives who would take away their Medicare, hand their Social Security earnings to fund-managers in Connecticut, and cut off their unemployment too.

[/B]The huge infrastructure of the conservative movement in Washington D.C. is aghast at Trump, and calls him an economic illiterate for threatening China with tariffs. They can’t understand that this is not primarily an economic measure, but a nationalist one. It’s a signal to voters that one man is here to fight for them, not to school-marmishly tell them that capitalism is helping them when in fact it manifestly helps others a lot more. Trump has attracted his coalition of supporters among those who are the most-weakly attached to the Republican Party as an institution.

Probably the least depressing case you can make for Trump’s popularity. Still depressing as hell though.

5861

Sam Wang: http://election.princeton.edu/2016/02/27/cake-bakes-rubio/#more-14261
Might be too late to stop Trump. Looks like the best the GOP can hope for is brokered convention (and I’m sure Trump will bow out gracefully.)

And Clinton is not as weak as those here want her to be; since this summer, I’ve heard repeatedly her campaign is a train wreck, she’s self-destructing, etc et al. In the mean time you have the Republican front runners trading middle school insults with each other. Between the two parties, it’s self-evident which one is the shit show. Maybe that “deepest bench” ever wasn’t so deep after all if the GOP couldn’t shut down Donald Trump.

Here’s a TPM opinion piece that sums it up nicely

And some insights from a Republican:
Hard to paste a “tweet storm”, but this is from David Frum (former Bush speech writer.) Start at the bottom:

length

[spoiler]16) As TS Eliot said, there are no lost causes, because there are no won causes. There are no “tipping points.” Politics never stops. ACT.

  1. So so many scandals. Now they are coming home. And I say this not to despair, but to urge action -beyond anti-Trump attack ads

  2. So is installing as your party’s power brokers a collection of TV & radio talkers who earn their livings by demeaning 2/3 of America

  3. So is promising every year for 7 years to develop a health care alternative - and then presenting 1 page concepts as plans.

  4. So’s withdrawing Medicare coverage from under 55 to finance a tax cut for those who’ve taken 100% of all economic growth since 2010

  5. Trump U is a scandal. So’s tacitly allowing 1 million illegal migrants per year rather than offend the National Restaurant Assn

  6. Now GOP seems headed to debacle - conservatism to crackup - and the best advice we hear is, “Talk about Trump University.”

  7. Correction. 1 analysis was allowed of Bush presidency. “Too much domestic spending.” As if that were any actual voter’s top 10 concern!

  8. Never ever was there a reckoning with something way important than the campaign of 2012 - the presidency of 2001-2009.

  9. After 2012 defeat, elite determined its solution - Gang of 8ism - within HOURS. Meaning, they never listened to anyone but themselves.

  10. Now you hear elite Republicans blaming the base! As if voters existed to serve party priorities, rather than the other way around!

  11. Isn’t the point here that if a great political party is so vulnerable to fraud as obvious as Trump - it was unhealthy to start with?

  12. Congressional Republicans self-deluded that they can save themselves even if top of ticket craters - or splits.

  13. Brains of consultant class turned to rock circa 1995. Anyway, they care about fees than stopping Trump http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/us/politics/donald-trump-republican-

  14. Donors care about their issues - Ex-Im Bank (no, seriously); cutting Medicare etc - than stopping Trump. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/us/politics/donald-trump-a

Model of a broken party.

  1. Elected leaders (Jeb, Christie) care about wounded feelings than stopping Trump.
    [/spoiler]