Presidential Race 2016

[Miramon]

Ha. This will end well.

I’m not going to pay for that fucking wall! He should pay for it. He’s got the money.

[Timex]

I think the sample size is fine for the purpose of the poll, which to examine the nationwide support for Trump among registered Republicans. He polled at 49%, the next closest was 16%, and the MoE was 5%. That’s enough to conclude that he is doing really well.

The poll wasn’t meant to address his regional support, so you can’t really argue that the regional MoEs are a methodological defect.

Eh, but the thing is, that sample is not even remotely representative of the republican party.

They are able to correctly peg what old white guys think… that’s cool. But that’s not the entirety of the republican party any more.

When you look at demographics like these, you see that while the majority of millenials and gen-X’ers lean demogratic, there is still a large chunk of them (Between 36-40% of them) who lean Republican. And those generations are BIGGER than the Babyboomers at this point. That means they constitute a huge chunk of the Republican party. And this poll essentially ignores them entirely.

In terms of it not really addressing his regional support, it’s supposed to be a NATIONAL poll. And if it only samples voters from the south, then again it’s essentially ignoring the fact that different regions vote differently.

[magnet]

If you’re going to break it down into demographics that don’t have enough representation, then yeah, you can. The rest of the poll is fine.

But CNN didn’t make any conclusions based on those demographics. The demographics appear in an appendix without comment. Which is perfectly proper, it shows that the main conclusion (Trump leads nationally) is the only conclusion you should draw from the poll.

Scientific studies frequently show their negatives, ie nonconclusive data, in order to reassure readers that the authors at least considered alternative interpretations, but found no support for them.

[Timex]

But CNN didn’t make any conclusions based on those demographics. The demographics appear in an appendix without comment. Which is perfectly proper, it shows that the main conclusion (Trump leads nationally) is the only conclusion you should draw from the poll.

But that’s not a valid conclusion if the sample ignores all of the demographic segments which don’t support trump.

Like young voters, for instance, is the one group that Trump CONSISTENTLY loses.

So this poll really would be better stated if it said, “Trump leads old white republicans from the south” nationally.

[Dan_Theman]

But CNN didn’t make any conclusions based on those demographics. The demographics appear in an appendix without comment. Which is perfectly proper, it shows that the main conclusion (Trump leads nationally) is the only conclusion you should draw from the poll.

Scientific studies frequently show their negatives, ie nonconclusive data, in order to reassure readers that the authors at least considered alternative interpretations, but found no support for them.

FFS, Magnet. I’m not saying that CNN did anything wrong. I’m saying that if they got more it would be better and more useful. I’m not sure why you’re arguing with me on that, because it’s kind of common sense.

[magnet]

But that’s not a valid conclusion if the sample ignores all of the demographic segments which don’t support trump.

They didn’t ignore them. The main result, 49% support for Trump, includes young and old alike, urban and suburban alike, etc. As usual the responses were weighted, eg if fewer urbanites than expected were in the sample, then each urbanite counted more in the final result.

In addition, their pool of suburban respondents was large enough to permit individualized conclusions with reasonable margin of error. That’s just a bonus, though.

And just because CNN was not comfortable doing the same for urban respondents doesn’t mean they weren’t an important part of the nationwide sample. At some point all studies have a limit to the granularity they can achieve, and for this study the limit was drawn at urban / suburban divide.

Again to make an analogy: they probably don’t have enough data to confidently tell you what redheads think of Trump, but that doesn’t mean they excluded redheads.

[triggercut]

I’m curious. Does anyone have an opinion on some of the smaller sub-groups who may or may not have been represented in this morning’s CNN/ORC poll?

Asking for a friend.

[Oghier]

Well, I feel bad for Timex and other rational conservatives as they watch what may be the disintegration of a great political party. It’s mixed with a bit of glee and no small portion of horror.

I think Cruz is worse, though. He is the perfect embodiment of the polarization of our politics, the view that the other half of the country are not Americans with different views, but the enemies of freedom. If it continues to devolve, our country will be paralyzed, and Cruz is the one candidate certain to deliberately foment this division. It’s his lifeblood.

I would prefer a President Trump to a President Cruz, and it’s not a close call. Trump may well fuck up big. But Cruz will work with great diligence to destroy what makes the federal government work.

[Wallapuctus]

I think Trump has the millennial Republican vote locked up, by virtue of his tweeting our rare Pepes. I’m not even joking.

[Strollen]

This is John Oliver’s piece on Donald Trump, which is (obviously) awesome.

The Drumpfinator is the perfect example of how Donald J Drumpf is making America great again.

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

[Timex]

I would prefer a President Trump to a President Cruz, and it’s not a close call. Trump may well fuck up big. But Cruz will work with great diligence to destroy what makes the federal government work.

Dude, do you seriously not grasp that Trump could, quite literally, start WWIII?

I mean, I am absolutely baffled by the idea that someone can even contemplate traditional political nonsense when considering voting for a literal authoritarian fascist who has demonstrated an inability to control his responses to provocation.

He can’t handle another politician making fun of him. How do you think he’s gonna handle the actions of someone like ISIS? You think that’s going to go WELL?

You’re talking about turning over the keys to the most powerful military in the entire history of the fucking WORLD to a narcissistic meglomaniac. I mean, Christ, Nixon had meglomaniacal tendencies, but he was way smarter than Trump, and actually had some legitimate desire to improve shit. And he STILL caused a fairly permanent damage to the office of the president. Trump has none of that going or him.

I’m sorry, but I am totally baffled by this kind of statement. If you say “I prefer Trump to X”, that statement is nonsensical, for ALL VALUES OF X.

[Timex]

They didn’t ignore them. The main result, 49% support for Trump, includes young and old alike, urban and suburban alike, etc. As usual the responses were weighted, eg if fewer urbanites than expected were in the sample, then each urbanite counted more in the final result.

In addition, their pool of suburban respondents was large enough to permit individualized conclusions with reasonable margin of error. That’s just a bonus, though.

And just because CNN was not comfortable doing the same for urban respondents doesn’t mean they weren’t an important part of the nationwide sample. At some point all studies have a limit to the granularity they can achieve, and for this study the limit was drawn at urban / suburban divide.

Again to make an analogy: they probably don’t have enough data to confidently tell you what redheads think of Trump, but that doesn’t mean they excluded redheads.

But it does mean that, because they, at best, had such a small sample of republican voters under the age of 50 that they couldn’t even list the MOE. Hell, it’s possible that they literally didn’t have any in their sample.

That means that there is no possible way that you can weight the results to accurately represent the actual voting population. It’s not like they had a small sample with a reasonable MOE that they could then extrapolate. They had effectively no data for how young voters would vote.

[Incendiary_Lemon]

Like young voters, for instance, is the one group that Trump CONSISTENTLY loses.

The exit polls haven’t shown a sharp disparity in support by age. It’s not like Huckabee or Santorum who always trended older.

[triggercut]

Kasich getting everyone fired up at his rally today.

[Incendiary_Lemon]

Kasich getting everyone fired up at his rally today.

I would point to how he’s holding himself. Audiences will echo the speaker.

[triggercut]

That’s like a Wes Anderson cutaway shot if he was making a film of the 2016 election campaign.

[Quaro]

I don’t know, i guess i just find this sort of thing juvenile, more so than making fun of someone’s height or other Trump comments. YMMV though.

Really though, Cruz is bat shit crazy as usual, but Marco Rubio IS trump now. The scene from star wars where the emperor is encouraging luke to kill vader and take his place comes to mind.

Yeah. Rubio’s path to victory is to be the anti-Trump. He can still attack Trump viciously without sounding like a second-generation clone copying the schoolyard insults thrown at him. I think this is a mistake.

[Incendiary_Lemon]

Yeah. Rubio’s path to victory is to be the anti-Trump. He can still attack Trump viciously without sounding like a second-generation clone copying the schoolyard insults thrown at him. I think this is a mistake.

Trump succeeded in dragging him down to his level.

Won’t end well for Rubio.

[Timex]

The exit polls haven’t shown a sharp disparity in support by age. It’s not like Huckabee or Santorum who always trended older.

The exit polls in SC showed that Trump’s support dropped from 35% to 26% with voters over 45 vs. under 45, putting him in a dead heat with Cruz and Rubio.
Likewise, in Iowa entrance polls, Trump’s support dwindles as you go into the older age brackets, while Rubio’s strengthens.
Likewise in Nevada entrance polls, Trump’s support drops in each age category as you go from oldest to youngest, starting at 51% over 65, then 47% in over 45, 41% over 20, and only 31% 18 and over, where Rubio actually beat him with 37% of the vote.

Trump’s message appeals to old white people who are scared of everything. As others have said, this is the right wing’s own fault for spending eight years fomenting fear and dissent. But younger voters aren’t scared of everything. When you look on Twitter and crap, the demographics of Drumpf’s followers is pretty plainly laid out. You see old white people, and freaking HARD CORE racists. Like, literal white supremacists and nazis and crap. And that’s pretty much it. That’s who he’s tapping into.

Yeah. Rubio’s path to victory is to be the anti-Trump. He can still attack Trump viciously without sounding like a second-generation clone copying the schoolyard insults thrown at him. I think this is a mistake.

Here’s why that’s wrong:
The media ignores you if you are reasonable.

Seriously. That’s why it doesn’t work.

If you are a mature adult, you get some trivial slice of airtime. The only people who get coverage are the folks who are either insulting trump, or getting insulted BY trump.

And the only way to win is to be the guy who gets the most face time. That’s what’s going to consolidate the GOP vote. And Rubio’s plan is working. He’s on the news every freaking day now. And that’s his only chance.

We can lament it all we want, but that’s how it is. Playing nice doesn’t work, because the media refuses to cover issues.

[Incendiary_Lemon]

The exit polls in SC showed that Trump’s support dropped from 35% to 26% with voters over 45 vs. under 45, putting him in a dead heat with Cruz and Rubio.
Likewise, in Iowa entrance polls, Trump’s support dwindles as you go into the older age brackets, while Rubio’s strengthens.
Likewise in Nevada entrance polls, Trump’s support drops in each age category as you go from oldest to youngest, starting at 51% over 65, then 47% in over 45, 41% over 20, and only 31% 18 and over, where Rubio actually beat him with 37% of the vote.

Trump’s message appeals to old white people who are scared of everything.

There are variations, but he still wins in almost every age group.

We can lament it all we want, but that’s how it is. Playing nice doesn’t work, because the media refuses to cover issues.

Rubio, for all his natural talents, is running a very bland campaign. And he did a very poor job of reading the electorate.

I think that’s the root of the problem.