Timex
5962
You can’t weight the sample for age and region of country unless you have data for every category for age and region of country.
Unless you just say you weighted for it and didn’t actually do anything.
The methodology is similar to that used in every other poll you read uncritically.
To be fair, I tend to be extremely skeptical of this type of poll, as I don’t really consider it real science.
But in this specific case, when they have no information about how many people they sampled that are under 50, I just can’t take it seriously, because that is now an important chunk of the voting electorate. And it’s also the part of the electorate that Trump does most poorly with.
If I can’t confirm that they are accurately representing that section of the electorate, I can’t take it seriously.
I don’t see shutting down the Government as “working within the system”. I see it as torching the system in a fit of pique that half of America doesn’t agree with him.
I heard if the poll is faulty, it means Trump can’t be the GOP nominee according to the rules.
I don’t see shutting down the Government as “working within the system”. I see it as torching the system in a fit of pique that half of America doesn’t agree with him and neither does the Constitution (see Roe v. Wade).
Timex
5966
But populism based on xenophobia, hatred, and fear most definitely is a slippery slope to fascism.
When you get a base of frothing zealots who are cheering for blood and oppression, that is exactly what allows the government to seize power and crush the people. Because at first, it only oppresses those “bad” groups. At first, they are only dragging the immigrants out of their houses, or only banning the Muslims. But (as though these ideas are not horrific and un-American on their own) in order to do these things, the government extends its powers, and individual rights lose all basis.
That John Oliver clip. . .omg, he’s just begging for Drumpf to sue him. Great way to come home from a so-so day at work and laugh my butt off.
magnet
5968
What’s the point of lying? Especially when it’s so easy to do the weighting.
Unless, of course, you really had zero people in a category. But what do you think is the likelihood of calling 427 Republicans randomly and reaching ZERO under the age of 50? Or reaching ZERO non-Southerners in 427 random tries? That’s the sort of speculation best left to conspiracy-theorists.
But in this specific case, when they have no information about how many people they sampled that are under 50
You actually have raw data on the people under 55. It’s the second to last column. Their support was 47% +/- 8%. Just a few points less than the over 55 group. No surprise, really.
If you really want to analyze it further, just dig deeper and do the math. For instance, there were two age categories over 50. From the error rate, you can roughly work out the number of people in each category. There were ~ 132 or so between 50 and 64 (their error was right on the cusp, 8.5%). The 65+ group had an error rate of 7.5%, which means there were ~ 196 of them.
That leaves around 100 Republicans who were under 50.
Trump uses a lot of caveats when he speaks. He wants a wall, but it’s going to have a big door. He wants to impose a ban on Muslim immigrants, but only for a brief period of time.
There’s a lot of wiggle room there. Which, combined with his record of exaggerated rhetoric, makes me skeptical of how serious he is.
We already deport illegal aliens for example. He could simply take office and declare victory on that point. With the wall, he would have to build something, but that’s a relatively trivial gesture.
The ban on Muslim immigrants would be somewhat trickier, but he could substitute stricter background checks for people from at-risk countries.
Oghier
5970
You may be right, but I look at Cruz and I see a narcissistic religious zealot. That is the most dangerous possible combination of traits for the office.
As for Trump, I see him as a bombast, not a psychotic warmonger. He has identified the deepest, base fears of the GOP base, and he’s dialed the rhetoric up to 11 in order to garner attention. I think it’s more marketing than idealogy. I could have this wrong, of course, but I see him as an awful president, but not an existential threat to our government or country.
Timex
5971
The willingness of some of you to contrive excuses for a man literally building a campaign platform upon the destruction of America’s most fundamental values is disturbing to me.
I have to imagine that there were Germans who said the exact same kind of thing when Hitler rose to power. “He’s probably not going to do these terrible things. He’s just going to do the stuff that sounds cool to me.”
Seriously, this shit is so far beyond the pale that I kind of understand the reluctance to admit it’s real. Because that’s not what America is about, right?
BUT IT FUCKING IS REAL.
THE GOP FRONTRUNNER IS LITERALLY CAMPAIGNING ON WAR CRIMES AND FASCISM.
Oghier
5972
Dude. Literally nobody posting here wants Trump to be President, or even the GOP nominee. Maybe dial it down a bit. I’m not “contriving excuses.” I’m presenting an opinion that most of what comes out of Trump’s mouth is insincere bullshit. He’s a terrible human, but one can nonetheless conclude that he is not Hitler.
RichVR
5973
Older article that’s still valid: Why Donald Trump Will Always Be a “Short-Fingered Vulgarian”
He may be giving the American political system the roughing up it so sorely needs, but even the remote possibility that one of those tiny fingers could be within reach of the nuclear hot button should give any sane Republican the chills.
Nesrie
5974
Timex, I think you need to calm down a little bit here. Just because some people think, for valid reasons you may not agree with, that Cruz is worse than Trump does not mean anyone is actually supporting him here or thinks he’s a good candidate. He’s an awful human being playing on the fears of the ignorant and has no qualms about taking the country down to glorify himself… but I still think Cruz is more dangerous.
Timex
5975
Trump uses a lot of caveats when he speaks. He wants a wall, but it’s going to have a big door. He wants to impose a ban on Muslim immigrants, but only for a brief period of time.
There’s a lot of wiggle room there. Which, combined with his record of exaggerated rhetoric, makes me skeptical of how serious he is.
We already deport illegal aliens for example. He could simply take office and declare victory on that point. With the wall, he would have to build something, but that’s a relatively trivial gesture.
The ban on Muslim immigrants would be somewhat trickier, but he could substitute stricter background checks for people from at-risk countries.
Dude, read what lemon just wrote there.
Oghier
5976
What Lemon wrote is that, “Trump is bullshitting the GOP base, playing to their fear and ignorance, in order to glorify Trump.” I think that’s at least as plausible as the idea that “Trump wants to load brown people into cattle cars and nuke places.”
Timex
5977
Except that one requires you to elect him based on a platform of fascism and hope he does something else, and the other just requires you to take him at his word.
Which in turn, allows him to take relatively liberal positions elsewhere. See his stands on Planned Parenthood, unions, and tax increases for the rich.
I just think the whole thing is a calculated performance.
Cruz is more dangerous because he’s smarter than Trump. I think Trump’s handlers would prevent him from doing most of what he says he will. The former head of the NSA was on Bill Maher the other night and claimed the military (which I understood to be the joint Chiefs and generals) would not follow his orders of they were ordered to bomb civilians and commit war crimes.
Yeah, the military has totally never killed civilians or committed war crimes.
Timex
5981
If that were to happen, then you would have just witnessed a military coup against the US civilian government.
I mean, we all understand why that’s pretty much horrific, right? Like, that’s not a solution that actually solves problems. It creates a ton more.
Say what you want about Cruz, he is at least ideologically bound by the Constitution. Trump is bound by nothing.
